Philipp Lutscher
@plutscher.bsky.social
1.1K followers 320 following 86 posts
Postdoctoral researcher @UniOslo & non-resident fellow @DigDemLab: technology, autocracies, contentious politics and quantitative methods (he/him; FirstGen); https://philipplutscher.net/
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Reposted by Philipp Lutscher
jonaswschmid.bsky.social
After large-scale disasters autocrats often shift the blame on others to save their popularity. Our 🚨new paper🚨, just accepted at Perspectives on Politics, shows that this tactic is prone to backfire. With @edwardgoldring.bsky.social & @fapaydin.bsky.social . shorturl.at/v6wIV%E2%AC%...
The title page of a paper listing the title: "Blame Shifting in Autocracies Following Large-scale Disasters: Evidence from Turkey"; the authors: Edward Goldring, Jonas Willibald Schmid, and Fulya Apaydin; and the abstract: "Large-scale disasters, particularly when handled poorly, often spark popular outrage and threaten
an autocrat’s hold on power. Autocrats frequently employ blame shifting strategies to redirect
public anger and weather these storms. We examine whether blame shifting after a large-scale
disaster helps or hurts an autocrat’s popularity through a mixed-methods research design in the
electoral autocracy of Turkey in April-July 2023, following the February 2023 earthquakes.
An online survey experiment (n=3,839) identifies the effects of blaming the aftermath of the
earthquake on the opposition, a force majeure, private construction companies, or a govern-
ment minister, while focus groups explore the mechanisms behind these effects. We find that
blaming the opposition or a force majeure leads to a backlash, especially among those more
able to critically evaluate information. Focus groups reveal that these backlash effects are
driven by voters’ dismay at electoral opportunism and the incumbent’s polarizing language
following a large-scale disaster."; and the note that the paper is forthcoming in Perspectives on Politics.
Reposted by Philipp Lutscher
alessandronai.bsky.social
TWO DAYS LEFT TO APPLY!

Come work with us
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👇👇👇👇
Reposted by Philipp Lutscher
jacobnyrup.bsky.social
The age of leaders increases more rapidly than the age of the population: here seen as the share over 65 for both leaders and the population.

We would see the same trend if we look at the mean, median, within country, and so on.
plutscher.bsky.social
We updated our manuscript w/ @chknutsen.bsky.social and @draege.bsky.social on propaganda in Turkey osf.io/preprints/os... --- all comments welcomed.
OSF
osf.io
plutscher.bsky.social
I just found NotebookLMs AI podcast function. Pretty cool. Here a summary of our article on propaganda in the US (t.co/f3DtlZnR3I) -- Link to the AI podcast: notebooklm.google.com/notebook/1e9...
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notebooklm.google.com
plutscher.bsky.social
So glad to finally see this in print!
karstendonnay.bsky.social
📣 New publication in "Perspectives on Politics" with my fantastic co-author @plutscher.bsky.social on perceptions of authoritarian-style political messaging used by the first Trump administration during the 2020 BLM protests in the US

Main takeaways & methods: ⬇️ 1/10
polisky csssky socsky commsky
plutscher.bsky.social
Would be interesting to do a similar survey now again!
Reposted by Philipp Lutscher
respol.bsky.social
Spotlighting articles

@tboeggild.bsky.social, @plutscher.bsky.social, @jacobnyrup.bsky.social & Sascha Göbel find that European citizens support for #Ukraine does not falter due to economic concerns. They become more supportive when presented with arguments related to principles such as democracy.
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Reposted by Philipp Lutscher
Reposted by Philipp Lutscher
jacobnyrup.bsky.social
In a new article in R&P we show that support for Ukraine increases significantly when coupled with human rights and democracy. Contrary, support 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 decrease when people are reminded of the costs associated with supporting Ukraine /w @plutscher.bsky.social @tboeggild.bsky.social & Sascha Göbel
plutscher.bsky.social
Thanks. Yes, we use this approach in another "classical experiment" project.
plutscher.bsky.social
Yeah, I am in touch with some economists at our Uni to work on that further... but this sounds like a good strategy for my project (1) conjoint like design, (2) actually testing the arguments!
plutscher.bsky.social
Thanks Alex. I have some ideas how to combine both, would be great to get in touch.
plutscher.bsky.social
Thanks for all your answers! Yes, I also thought about designing a conjoint first (perhaps even one that updates on priors) and then in a second step "test" the persuasiveness.
plutscher.bsky.social
Bluesky Polisky methodsky hive mind what is the best (experimental) method to measure the persuasiveness of arguments, and has anyone suggestions how to implement them :)
plutscher.bsky.social
Now officially online first
@JPR_journal
: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... our work on the perception of visual propaganda in Venezuela.
plutscher.bsky.social
Who else is going to EPSA 2024 in Cologne? Looking forward to a conference in Germany again!