Gold settles at 12th record YTD
Copper hits fresh high back to May
WTI Crude, Brent , RBOB hit highest levels since early March
Sugar hits highest level since Feb 6th
Wheat hits highest level since Feb 27th
Gold settles at 12th record YTD
Copper hits fresh high back to May
WTI Crude, Brent , RBOB hit highest levels since early March
Sugar hits highest level since Feb 6th
Wheat hits highest level since Feb 27th
@INTC stock has rallied 27.4% in the past four days
@INTC stock has rallied 27.4% in the past four days
With a potential TikTok ban looming, we update advertising/ engagement beneficiaries. META cleanest beneficiary, watch what gets priced in SNAP and don't under-appreciate potential RDDT/APP time/ad dollar gains
With a potential TikTok ban looming, we update advertising/ engagement beneficiaries. META cleanest beneficiary, watch what gets priced in SNAP and don't under-appreciate potential RDDT/APP time/ad dollar gains
Meta named top 2025 pick at Deutsche Bank
Reddit named top 2025 pick at Deutsche
Spotify named top 2025 pick at Deutsche
Netflix price target raised to $1000 at BMO, outperform
Tesla price target raised to $325 from $270 at Barclays, neutral
Meta named top 2025 pick at Deutsche Bank
Reddit named top 2025 pick at Deutsche
Spotify named top 2025 pick at Deutsche
Netflix price target raised to $1000 at BMO, outperform
Tesla price target raised to $325 from $270 at Barclays, neutral
Investors are extremely bullish on the stock market, and a record-high share think that there is less than 10% probability of a crash over the coming six months
Investors are extremely bullish on the stock market, and a record-high share think that there is less than 10% probability of a crash over the coming six months
We assume 20% additional US tariffs on Chinese goods in 2025
While our 2025 growth forecast (4.5%) is in line with the consensus, we expect a prolonged reflation path (CPI 0.8%; PPI 0.0% in 2025)
We assume 20% additional US tariffs on Chinese goods in 2025
While our 2025 growth forecast (4.5%) is in line with the consensus, we expect a prolonged reflation path (CPI 0.8%; PPI 0.0% in 2025)
“Disney has the greatest potential to join the distribution is king group as a content distribution leader"
“Disney has the greatest potential to join the distribution is king group as a content distribution leader"
“Durable cloud winner well-positioned to compete in AI + Share-taker in digital ads space + Continued retail operating margin inflection”
“Durable cloud winner well-positioned to compete in AI + Share-taker in digital ads space + Continued retail operating margin inflection”
Monday was the S&P 500's 11th straight day of negative breadth. It's the longest such streak on record, based on data going back to 1999. (Dow Jones Market Data via Barron's)
Monday was the S&P 500's 11th straight day of negative breadth. It's the longest such streak on record, based on data going back to 1999. (Dow Jones Market Data via Barron's)
Policy, Risks & Crowds: net 80% expect lower policy rates next 12 months (just 1% expect lower bond yields)…39% say trade war most bearish ‘25 risk, 40% say China growth most bullish risk…#1 most crowded trade remains “long Magnificent 7.”
Policy, Risks & Crowds: net 80% expect lower policy rates next 12 months (just 1% expect lower bond yields)…39% say trade war most bearish ‘25 risk, 40% say China growth most bullish risk…#1 most crowded trade remains “long Magnificent 7.”
Macro: 6/10 say no global recession next 18 months…probability of “soft landing” 60%, “no landing” 33% (8-month high), “hard landing” 6% (6-month low).
Macro: 6/10 say no global recession next 18 months…probability of “soft landing” 60%, “no landing” 33% (8-month high), “hard landing” 6% (6-month low).
Bottom Line: Dec Global FMS shows super-bullish sentiment…record-low allocation to cash, record-high allocation to US stocks, 3-year high in global risk appetite…driven by ‘Trump 2.0’ US growth optimism & a compliant rate-cutting Fed.
Bottom Line: Dec Global FMS shows super-bullish sentiment…record-low allocation to cash, record-high allocation to US stocks, 3-year high in global risk appetite…driven by ‘Trump 2.0’ US growth optimism & a compliant rate-cutting Fed.
Amazon, Google named top 2025 pick at BMO Capital
Toll Brothers named top 2025 pick at Wells Fargo
Block, PayPal named top 2025 pick at Barclays
Planet Fitness named top 2025 pick at Jefferies
Amazon, Google named top 2025 pick at BMO Capital
Toll Brothers named top 2025 pick at Wells Fargo
Block, PayPal named top 2025 pick at Barclays
Planet Fitness named top 2025 pick at Jefferies
“new Trump administration policies (consumer EV tax credit repeals) positions TSLA better with lower EV cost structure relative to peers.a loosening regulatory framework position TSLA autonomous segments for upside”
“new Trump administration policies (consumer EV tax credit repeals) positions TSLA better with lower EV cost structure relative to peers.a loosening regulatory framework position TSLA autonomous segments for upside”
remain bullish on:
1) Apple Intelligence accelerating iPhone replacement cycles starting in FY26
2) Services growth sustaining at double digits
3) gross margins expanding.
remain bullish on:
1) Apple Intelligence accelerating iPhone replacement cycles starting in FY26
2) Services growth sustaining at double digits
3) gross margins expanding.
The Russell 2000 index has not closed at a new record high in three years, suggesting it is overdue and poised to outperform the SPX in the year ahead.
SPX 2025 YE 6,600
The Russell 2000 index has not closed at a new record high in three years, suggesting it is overdue and poised to outperform the SPX in the year ahead.
SPX 2025 YE 6,600
There are strong tailwinds supportive of stocks in 2025. But we see this as a tale of “two years”
BASE CASE: Equity risk-on first half, S&P 500 7,000. Visibility weakens, YE 2025 at 6,600.
There are strong tailwinds supportive of stocks in 2025. But we see this as a tale of “two years”
BASE CASE: Equity risk-on first half, S&P 500 7,000. Visibility weakens, YE 2025 at 6,600.
“We believe 2025 revenue will be supported by healthy organic & secular growth, ramping Advertising contribution, & price increases. Organic growth remains healthy, w/engagement running at ~2 hours/day/paid membership
“We believe 2025 revenue will be supported by healthy organic & secular growth, ramping Advertising contribution, & price increases. Organic growth remains healthy, w/engagement running at ~2 hours/day/paid membership