@INTC stock has rallied 27.4% in the past four days
@INTC stock has rallied 27.4% in the past four days
With a potential TikTok ban looming, we update advertising/ engagement beneficiaries. META cleanest beneficiary, watch what gets priced in SNAP and don't under-appreciate potential RDDT/APP time/ad dollar gains
With a potential TikTok ban looming, we update advertising/ engagement beneficiaries. META cleanest beneficiary, watch what gets priced in SNAP and don't under-appreciate potential RDDT/APP time/ad dollar gains
Investors are extremely bullish on the stock market, and a record-high share think that there is less than 10% probability of a crash over the coming six months
Investors are extremely bullish on the stock market, and a record-high share think that there is less than 10% probability of a crash over the coming six months
We assume 20% additional US tariffs on Chinese goods in 2025
While our 2025 growth forecast (4.5%) is in line with the consensus, we expect a prolonged reflation path (CPI 0.8%; PPI 0.0% in 2025)
We assume 20% additional US tariffs on Chinese goods in 2025
While our 2025 growth forecast (4.5%) is in line with the consensus, we expect a prolonged reflation path (CPI 0.8%; PPI 0.0% in 2025)
“Disney has the greatest potential to join the distribution is king group as a content distribution leader"
“Disney has the greatest potential to join the distribution is king group as a content distribution leader"
“Durable cloud winner well-positioned to compete in AI + Share-taker in digital ads space + Continued retail operating margin inflection”
“Durable cloud winner well-positioned to compete in AI + Share-taker in digital ads space + Continued retail operating margin inflection”
Bottom Line: Dec Global FMS shows super-bullish sentiment…record-low allocation to cash, record-high allocation to US stocks, 3-year high in global risk appetite…driven by ‘Trump 2.0’ US growth optimism & a compliant rate-cutting Fed.
Bottom Line: Dec Global FMS shows super-bullish sentiment…record-low allocation to cash, record-high allocation to US stocks, 3-year high in global risk appetite…driven by ‘Trump 2.0’ US growth optimism & a compliant rate-cutting Fed.
“new Trump administration policies (consumer EV tax credit repeals) positions TSLA better with lower EV cost structure relative to peers.a loosening regulatory framework position TSLA autonomous segments for upside”
“new Trump administration policies (consumer EV tax credit repeals) positions TSLA better with lower EV cost structure relative to peers.a loosening regulatory framework position TSLA autonomous segments for upside”
remain bullish on:
1) Apple Intelligence accelerating iPhone replacement cycles starting in FY26
2) Services growth sustaining at double digits
3) gross margins expanding.
remain bullish on:
1) Apple Intelligence accelerating iPhone replacement cycles starting in FY26
2) Services growth sustaining at double digits
3) gross margins expanding.
The Russell 2000 index has not closed at a new record high in three years, suggesting it is overdue and poised to outperform the SPX in the year ahead.
SPX 2025 YE 6,600
The Russell 2000 index has not closed at a new record high in three years, suggesting it is overdue and poised to outperform the SPX in the year ahead.
SPX 2025 YE 6,600
There are strong tailwinds supportive of stocks in 2025. But we see this as a tale of “two years”
BASE CASE: Equity risk-on first half, S&P 500 7,000. Visibility weakens, YE 2025 at 6,600.
There are strong tailwinds supportive of stocks in 2025. But we see this as a tale of “two years”
BASE CASE: Equity risk-on first half, S&P 500 7,000. Visibility weakens, YE 2025 at 6,600.
“We believe 2025 revenue will be supported by healthy organic & secular growth, ramping Advertising contribution, & price increases. Organic growth remains healthy, w/engagement running at ~2 hours/day/paid membership
“We believe 2025 revenue will be supported by healthy organic & secular growth, ramping Advertising contribution, & price increases. Organic growth remains healthy, w/engagement running at ~2 hours/day/paid membership
In 2025, BofA Research expect faster global economic growth (3.2%), lower inflation (2.6%), and more central bank rate cuts.
We expect good returns in many equity markets
(8-14%), moderate credit gains (6-7%), modest bond upside
In 2025, BofA Research expect faster global economic growth (3.2%), lower inflation (2.6%), and more central bank rate cuts.
We expect good returns in many equity markets
(8-14%), moderate credit gains (6-7%), modest bond upside
Santa rally period: SPX up 79% of the time with an average return of 1.64% (1.43% median) going back to 1928 into 1929.
Santa rally period: SPX up 79% of the time with an average return of 1.64% (1.43% median) going back to 1928 into 1929.
"AI helped drive sales, Salesforce indicated use of AI Online chat services was up 31% y/y, and sites with employing AI services had a 9% increase in conversion rates."
"AI helped drive sales, Salesforce indicated use of AI Online chat services was up 31% y/y, and sites with employing AI services had a 9% increase in conversion rates."
"Netflix is in the strongest position financially, fundamentally and competitively that we have ever seen.”
"Netflix is in the strongest position financially, fundamentally and competitively that we have ever seen.”
Flows to Know:
Crypto: largest cumulative 8-week inflow on record ($13.5bn) and accounting for 30% of the total $45bn inflow since 2019
US equities: big inflow ($36.1bn) driving largest 4-week inflow on record ($141bn)
Financials: largest 4-week since Jan’22 ($8.0bn past 4 weeks)
Flows to Know:
Crypto: largest cumulative 8-week inflow on record ($13.5bn) and accounting for 30% of the total $45bn inflow since 2019
US equities: big inflow ($36.1bn) driving largest 4-week inflow on record ($141bn)
Financials: largest 4-week since Jan’22 ($8.0bn past 4 weeks)