Caitlin Talmadge
@proftalmadge.bsky.social
3.3K followers 170 following 87 posts
MIT professor, Brookings senior fellow, series editor at Cornell Press ⎮ Foreign policy, military operations, nuclear weapons, authoritarianism ⎮ Views are my own ⎮ Book: The Dictator's Army https://www.caitlintalmadge.com/
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proftalmadge.bsky.social
Delighted to have joined the Strategic Simplicity Podcast with @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, @fravel.bsky.social, Austin Long, and Vipin Narang to discuss China's nuclear strategy!
pranayrvaddi.bsky.social
We're joined by Taylor Fravel and Caitlin Talmadge to talk China...or at least have 1/3 to 1/2 of a very long conversation about China. Link below.
proftalmadge.bsky.social
Sharp analysis here from @mpoznansky.bsky.social and Erik Sand, regarding what this summer's spectacular Israeli and Ukrainian drone strikes do-- and don't-- mean for U.S.
proftalmadge.bsky.social
"The hour-long fight, which took place in darkness, involved some 110 aircraft, making it the world's largest air battle in decades.... Faulty intelligence gave the [Indian] Rafale pilots a false sense of confidence they were out of Pakistani firing distance."
www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Insight: How Pakistan shot down India's cutting-edge fighter using Chinese gear
Just after midnight on May 7, the screen in the Pakistan Air Force's operations room lit up in red with the positions of dozens of active enemy planes across the border in India.
www.reuters.com
Reposted by Caitlin Talmadge
shashj.bsky.social
Probably the first time that idle shitposting has resulted in concrete changes to an adversary’s nuclear posture.
proftalmadge.bsky.social
Hard to deter if you can't get to the fight: "If Nato’s tanks were called to respond to an invasion by Moscow’s forces across the EU’s eastern border, they would get stuck in tunnels, cause bridges to collapse and get snarled up in border protocols" www.ft.com/content/d77d...
Europe’s roads and rail unfit for war with Russia, EU transport chief warns
Brussels aims to spend €17bn on upgrading transport networks to be prepared for conflict
www.ft.com
proftalmadge.bsky.social
Think also about Japanese reactions to Chinese nuclear modernization. Why do they care?
proftalmadge.bsky.social
Well, this is the kind of thing one doesn't say in polite company, but I'm thinking here of things like NATO reactions to strategic arms control in the 70s, allied reactions to any whiff of US NFU pledge. Notion that US sits back & accepts MAD consistently freaks out allies under nuclear umbrella.
proftalmadge.bsky.social
But this is in the eye of the beholder-- the allies. They can certainly come to a different conclusion regarding their own security. But I was struck by the WSJ piece b/c it implies they still want US as backstop. We shall see!
proftalmadge.bsky.social
Allies historically have been deeply uncomfortable with MAD & have believed US efforts to escape it strengthen general deterrence & tolerance for risk in crises.
proftalmadge.bsky.social
Beyond issues with interceptor quantity, "U.S. ships had to head to port in the Med or the Red Sea after shooting all of their interceptors, because the Navy doesn’t yet have a reliable way to reload at sea." Significant implications here for conflict in Indo-Pacific www.wsj.com/world/israel...
Israel’s 12-Day War Revealed Alarming Gap in America’s Missile Stockpile
American missile-defense systems played a crucial role in protecting Israel during its conflict with Iran. But the war revealed gaps in U.S. supplies and strategy.
www.wsj.com
proftalmadge.bsky.social
I think it comes down to whether French promises to protect allies are credible when adversary can (VERY) asymmetrically hold the French homeland at risk. Allies may say no & seek to keep US as ultimate backstop while still bolstering Euro capabilities (which I am in favor of).
proftalmadge.bsky.social
Good discussion of US & China views on strategic stability. Would just note China need not worry about US damage limitation capability unless it plans to challenge the status quo by force, notably regarding Taiwan. Virtually only scenario where relevant.
www.brookings.edu/articles/chi...
Chinese perspectives on strategic stability engagement with the United States | Brookings
This article reviews Chinese authors’ discussions of strategic stability and the ways to reduce the risk of nuclear war.
www.brookings.edu
proftalmadge.bsky.social
Wow, today is just filled with explosive news that is completely unsurprising.
proftalmadge.bsky.social
Randy Schriver is spot on here regarding U.S. economic and defense policies in Asia working at cross-purposes
www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...
proftalmadge.bsky.social
Let's say the quiet part out loud: w/o French damage limitation capability vs Russia, which France is nowhere remotely close to achieving, promises to extend nuclear umbrella over Germany lack credibility.
www.wsj.com/world/europe...
Germany’s Call for French Nuclear Protection Gets Reality Check
Talks between Berlin and Paris about expanding the scope of France’s deterrent against Russian aggression are shaping up as an evolution, not a revolution.
www.wsj.com
proftalmadge.bsky.social
As this article correctly notes, Europe’s lack of strategic mobility is critical. No matter how many forces Europe builds, if it can’t move them to NATO’s eastern flank quickly enough, they won’t deter Russia effectively. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
How Russia Could Exploit a Vacuum in Europe
The dangers of a rapid drawdown in American forces.
www.foreignaffairs.com