Pawel Swidlicki
@pswidlicki.bsky.social
Currently clean on OPSEC
Yes, the latter is kind of what I was getting at from a geostrategic perspective, on the former I think given the trajectory everywhere West Germany still gets a far-right party but maybe a bit later.
December 1, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Yes, the latter is kind of what I was getting at from a geostrategic perspective, on the former I think given the trajectory everywhere West Germany still gets a far-right party but maybe a bit later.
I suspect it's a case of people liking to complain and a version of nostalgia that's less 'the way it was before was better' and 'I was young'. Worth remembering that DDR was still around longer than post-90 united Germany
December 1, 2025 at 4:54 PM
I suspect it's a case of people liking to complain and a version of nostalgia that's less 'the way it was before was better' and 'I was young'. Worth remembering that DDR was still around longer than post-90 united Germany
Fascinated by the counterfactual here, like what would two separate German states actually have looked like in practice, and how would you have avoided the same problems in practice, i.e. E->W migration and the West having to provide some level of support to the East?
December 1, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Fascinated by the counterfactual here, like what would two separate German states actually have looked like in practice, and how would you have avoided the same problems in practice, i.e. E->W migration and the West having to provide some level of support to the East?
That was bit of a penny-drop moment for me insofar as what Johnson did afterwards made complete sense from domestic politics perspective. And later when they toyed with unilaterally breaching NIP via UKIMB it felt less about NI per se and more about continuing to mine that seam of anti-EU sentiment
December 1, 2025 at 3:46 PM
That was bit of a penny-drop moment for me insofar as what Johnson did afterwards made complete sense from domestic politics perspective. And later when they toyed with unilaterally breaching NIP via UKIMB it felt less about NI per se and more about continuing to mine that seam of anti-EU sentiment
Yes, agreed. Anecdotal but I recall talking to a Brexiteer (someone engaged but not directly in politics) at a social event at the height of the Brexit/prorogation wars in 2019 and started explaining the whole NI thing and he just interrupted and said 'I don't give a fuck about Northern Ireland'.
December 1, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Yes, agreed. Anecdotal but I recall talking to a Brexiteer (someone engaged but not directly in politics) at a social event at the height of the Brexit/prorogation wars in 2019 and started explaining the whole NI thing and he just interrupted and said 'I don't give a fuck about Northern Ireland'.
I think she correctly diagnosed that given the range of views within the Party, the 2015 majority would not have been sufficiently load-bearing to get a deal across the line. As it was, she wanted a big majority to strengthen her hand domestically and vis-a-vis EU. The theory was sound enough...
December 1, 2025 at 3:40 PM
I think she correctly diagnosed that given the range of views within the Party, the 2015 majority would not have been sufficiently load-bearing to get a deal across the line. As it was, she wanted a big majority to strengthen her hand domestically and vis-a-vis EU. The theory was sound enough...
Well, also that May seemed to genuinely care about NI's place in the UK whereas for Johnson, if we're being very charitable, it was a secondary consideration.
December 1, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Well, also that May seemed to genuinely care about NI's place in the UK whereas for Johnson, if we're being very charitable, it was a secondary consideration.
Where I completely agree that the media in general (notwithstanding certain exceptions) failed was in swallowing much of the 'Brilliant Boris Bamboozles Brussels' spin and playing down the obvious flaws which then led to the UKIMB breaching international law "in a very specific and limited way"
December 1, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Where I completely agree that the media in general (notwithstanding certain exceptions) failed was in swallowing much of the 'Brilliant Boris Bamboozles Brussels' spin and playing down the obvious flaws which then led to the UKIMB breaching international law "in a very specific and limited way"
You can quibble over the extent to which the changes Johnson secured vis-a-vis the original protocol as envisaged by the EU were fig-leaf concessions to allow him to sell the deal domestically or a genuine negotiating masterstroke but it was a different beast.
December 1, 2025 at 3:31 PM
You can quibble over the extent to which the changes Johnson secured vis-a-vis the original protocol as envisaged by the EU were fig-leaf concessions to allow him to sell the deal domestically or a genuine negotiating masterstroke but it was a different beast.
My reservoir of contempt for both Boris Johnson and much of the UK's political media runs deep, but it wasn't quite that simple, the 'Boris deal' was somewhere between EU's initial NI-focused concept and May's whole UK concept. Though yes, he did take lot of people for a ride, above all the DUP
December 1, 2025 at 3:28 PM
My reservoir of contempt for both Boris Johnson and much of the UK's political media runs deep, but it wasn't quite that simple, the 'Boris deal' was somewhere between EU's initial NI-focused concept and May's whole UK concept. Though yes, he did take lot of people for a ride, above all the DUP
Obviously question is what happens if Farage is actually in office here, but then presumably we're not looking for a better deal in any event. (Though potentially very interesting scenario is if US is again governed by Democrats whereas more European governments are hard/far-right).
December 1, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Obviously question is what happens if Farage is actually in office here, but then presumably we're not looking for a better deal in any event. (Though potentially very interesting scenario is if US is again governed by Democrats whereas more European governments are hard/far-right).
Not convinced on that point. Notwithstanding that NR President makes everything inherently more complicated within EU (so by extension managing UK-EU relations), ultimately as we saw during Brexit, even governments that were nominally ideologically aligned to the Tories rowed behind common position
December 1, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Not convinced on that point. Notwithstanding that NR President makes everything inherently more complicated within EU (so by extension managing UK-EU relations), ultimately as we saw during Brexit, even governments that were nominally ideologically aligned to the Tories rowed behind common position
It's also particularly funny coming from Americans given you know, their whole origin story and the way they celebrate it
December 1, 2025 at 12:14 PM
It's also particularly funny coming from Americans given you know, their whole origin story and the way they celebrate it
There's been this increasingly surreal disconnect between the US right's reflective anti-Communist rhetoric and the fact that their current preferred model of governance resembles it quite closely in many respects (personalist, authoritarian, economically interventionist etc)
December 1, 2025 at 9:25 AM
There's been this increasingly surreal disconnect between the US right's reflective anti-Communist rhetoric and the fact that their current preferred model of governance resembles it quite closely in many respects (personalist, authoritarian, economically interventionist etc)
Really enjoyed it when we were there couple of years ago but found it very expensive, best part of 10 quid for a coffee and (admittedly incredible) cinnamon bun
November 30, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Really enjoyed it when we were there couple of years ago but found it very expensive, best part of 10 quid for a coffee and (admittedly incredible) cinnamon bun
Of course UK & US politics and governance are still quite different, not least in terms of the culture around political donations, but I have no doubt that there would still be ample scope to pursue corrupt ventures.
November 30, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Of course UK & US politics and governance are still quite different, not least in terms of the culture around political donations, but I have no doubt that there would still be ample scope to pursue corrupt ventures.
My main issue with the Bakerloo is that it doesn't go beyond Elephant and Castle but I accept that might not change until my retirement.
November 30, 2025 at 12:37 PM
My main issue with the Bakerloo is that it doesn't go beyond Elephant and Castle but I accept that might not change until my retirement.
The potential risk for me is, vis-a-vis what is happening in the US, if these businesses or organisations end up providing some level of support (be that practical or in terms of lending their legitimacy) to an authoritarian/clientelist model of governance that is at odds with the rule of law.
November 30, 2025 at 12:36 PM
The potential risk for me is, vis-a-vis what is happening in the US, if these businesses or organisations end up providing some level of support (be that practical or in terms of lending their legitimacy) to an authoritarian/clientelist model of governance that is at odds with the rule of law.
Yeah, I was always slightly sympathetic to this argument in theory (in the sense it at least acknowledged some trade-offs) but in practice the Trump 2.0 regime has revealed the limits of this new sovereignty, specifically the extent to which the government has felt compelled to accommodate it.
November 30, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Yeah, I was always slightly sympathetic to this argument in theory (in the sense it at least acknowledged some trade-offs) but in practice the Trump 2.0 regime has revealed the limits of this new sovereignty, specifically the extent to which the government has felt compelled to accommodate it.