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Q McCallum

@qethanm.bsky.social

590 followers 110 following 1.1K posts

research: AI, risk, complexity, finance history Some posts in 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇷🇺 - newsletter: https://complex-machinery.com - fortunes: @fortuneexmachina.com‬ - blog: https://qethanm.cc - Radar: https://www.oreilly.com/people/q-mccallum-2

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · Apr 25

Periodic reminder: I publish a newsletter, Complex Machinery, on the intersection of AI and risk.

It's my way of explaining all the fun and not-so-fun happenings in the AI world.

You can read online or subscribe to get it in your inbox:

newsletter.complex-machinery.com

Complex Machinery

Welcome to Complex Machinery, a newsletter about the intersection of AI and risk. It occasionally dips into related matters like complexity, business models, emerging tech, and marketplaces. (While t...

newsletter.complex-machinery.com

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 3h

In the latest Complex Machinery:

Reports claim that AI has reached "bubble" status ... right as the field is taking on more debt. And _someone_ says it's cool because this would be the _good_ kind of bubble.

newsletter.complex-machinery.com/archive/046-...

#dataBS #aisky

#046 - It's a long way down

genAI keeps digging a hole. Will it be able to climb out?

newsletter.complex-machinery.com

Reposted by Q McCallum

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 1d

NVIDIA and OpenAi:

Concerns that their “increasingly complex and interconnected web of business transactions is artificially propping up the trillion-dollar AI boom.“

@bloomberg.com $NVDA 👀
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

140 730 2K

Reposted by Q McCallum

Barry Ritholtz @ritholtz.bsky.social · 9h

Amazon is having a big sale on How NOT to Invest!
It's $21.19 -- 36% off -- with free overnight delivery.

Grab a copy now, and give some away as gifts!

www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/...

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Fortune Ex Machina @fortuneexmachina.com · 21h

fortuneexmachina.com/fortunes/14f...

AI-generated fortune:

>> Nurture your knowledge, for an open book can guide even the most wandering of souls.

- Fortune Ex Machina

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 23h

(Yes, I am behind on some podcast listens. But Unhedged is worth the time even if I am two weeks late to the party.)

(And in this case, the Tricolor and First Brands dramas are still going ... so ...)

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 23h

In which @katie0martin.ft.com and @robarmstrong.bsky.social share the collective noun for canaries:

an aria (or an opera)

They were talking about corporate debt, but I have a hunch I will need this for the AI coal mine ...

open.spotify.com/episode/2V0Q...

Spotify – Web Player

open.spotify.com

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 23h

Anyone else getting flashbacks? Specifically, to Paulson's group tracing out Nth-order connections to subprime lenders 2006-2007 ..?

Robert Smith @bondhack.ft.com · 1d

🔥FIRST BRANDS NIGHTMARE ON WALL STREET SPREADS TO PARADEPLATZ 🔥

A UBS fund has 30 per cent of its portfolio tied to the failed First Brands Group, leaving Switzerland’s largest bank grappling with a bankruptcy that has convulsed global finance.

Lots more scoopy detail here: on.ft.com/46VXxhD

UBS fund holds 30% exposure linked to First Brands

[FREE TO READ] Switzerland’s largest bank has multiple investments tied to bankrupt auto parts maker

on.ft.com

Reposted by Q McCallum

Data Behind the Scenes Conference @databsconf.com · 1d

Highlighting #DataBS Conf talks:

Two talks actually took place _before_ the live event, as part of our preshow.

In the first one, Krysta Chauncey, Ph.D. described collecting UX data for autonomous vehicles. There was a bit of a magic act involved:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qel...

Wizard without the Curtain, Krysta Chauncey, Ph.D. -- DataBS 2025 Pre-show

YouTube video by Data Behind the Scenes

www.youtube.com

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 1d

Careful -- they never really lose those combat reflexes

Reposted by Q McCallum

Barry Ritholtz @ritholtz.bsky.social · 2d

The difference between Politics and Investing? You can win an election proclaiming the world is flat. But try deploying capital based on false beliefs; Mr. Market will soon disabuse you of any foolish ideas as it quietly separates fools from their money...

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

Point being: I'm accustomed to having to pull these various threads together for people across different fields ... and now it's happening al on its own.

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

On the one hand: business news is wild these days.

On the other hand: as someone forged in the Dot-Com bust who still keeps a toehold in finance and has studied asset bubbles (for fun, no less) ... I'm ... I'm kind of in my element?

This is a weird feeling.

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

Yep. I see plenty of failures.

And borrowing an idea from complex systems:

When a bunch of smaller failures collide in an unfortunate manner, they create something far greater than the sum of the parts.

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

About the most I can squeeze into a social media post is:

The excitement (and payoff expectations of AI) are driving companies to try to try it anywhere they can, without thinking.

(More on that in tomorrow's newsletter.)

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

Yes -- the phrase "this time, it's different" is usually an excuse for business shenanigans ...

... but for genAI this does indeed feel like a different animal compared to Dot-Com, cloud, DS/ML, and other tech booms.

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Data Behind the Scenes Conference @databsconf.com · 2d

The videos from the #DataBS Conference have made it to YouTube!

Over the coming days, we'll highlight sessisons from the event -- one post per talk.

You can also sneak ahead by going straight to the YouTube playlist, here:

www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...

Data Behind the Scenes 2025 - YouTube

Data Behind the Scenes is a data conference by data practitioners, for data practitioners. We come together to share stories and experiences about the the me...

www.youtube.com

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 2d

imo, AI <capex> is doing more than AI <adoption> in providing the appearance of a productivity boom.

That can change, ofc, but careful with conflation.

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

[blinks out Morse Code in consultant]

Reposted by Q McCallum

Hilary Mason @hmason.bsky.social · 2d

How many folks have actually experienced a CEO or manager pressuring them to use AI in a way that's dumb or out of touch?

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Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

This may or may not be a source of friction for my next book...

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

I mean, there's always the "logout" button...

alex benzer @internet.bsky.social · 2d

if @bsky.app introduced a "Zen Mode" — what do you think it would be? what problem would you want it to solve?

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 2d

I call it "autocowrong" for a reason ...

Alan Au @alanau.bsky.social · 2d

Ugh, my phone's autocorrect is replacing correct things with incorrect things again. 😒

Reposted by Q McCallum

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 11d

Standards are important. Extremely important!

But when it comes to AI, the "most fundamental bottleneck" is and always has been AI literacy. Especially at the executive level.

venturebeat.com/ai/the-usd1-...

Excerpt from the linked article:

>> Snowflake, Salesforce, dbt Labs and more than a dozen other technology companies announced Tuesday they will create a universal standard for how business data is defined and shared across platforms - solving what executives call Al's most fundamental bottleneck.

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 3d

For people who have never worked in that field, I often explain that finance is "money, seen through the lens of time" -- bets on present-day versus future money.

Invoices can be particularly murky bets. Unsecured, interest-free loans with minimal due diligence. Plenty of room for shenanigans.

Robert Smith @bondhack.ft.com · 3d

a massive part of my "edge" in writing about financial shenanigans is knowing a bit about factoring and having a Rolodex of people in that world. nearly everything dodge i've covered in finance has an invoice angle.

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Reposted by Q McCallum

Q McCallum @qethanm.bsky.social · 4d

Timely interview with absolute legend of a short-seller.

Here Chanos is talking about Enron (2001) and First Brands (2025) ... but everything applies just as well to AI excitement.

Easy money + people on autopilot == a bad mix.

FT Alphaville @alphaville.ft.com · 5d

"With the advent of private credit, institutions are putting money into this magical machine that gives you equity rates of return for senior debt exposure, which again should be the first red flag. We rarely get to see how the sausage is made."

on.ft.com/4gSm1gd

FTAV Q&A: Jim Chanos

[FREE TO READ] Wall Street’s most famous short seller on the First Brands fiasco, Enron and the “magical machine” in private credit markets

on.ft.com