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Rachelle Earwaker

@rachelleearwaker.bsky.social

1.6K followers 1.9K following 70 posts

Economist and Kiwi in London. Likely yapping about housing and the absolute state of things.

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Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · Dec 3

Our latest @jrf-uk.bsky.social COL survey is out & it's a dire picture for living standards.

We find ZERO CHANGE since May 24 in low income families going without essentials & being in arrears.

We project this group will be £440 p/y worse off in Oct 29 after housing costs, compared to now.

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Bar graph showing the number of households going without essentials, including food insecurity and the number on arrears remains completely unchanged between May 2024 and October 2024.

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Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · Aug 12

Arun Advani!

Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · May 12

I'm feeling rattled by today's announcements as a lucky person within the immigration system, and can't stop thinking how unsettling must it be to have such othering language used and pathways changed before you, when you don't have another country you can return to or resources to draw on.

Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · May 12

Acknowledging that I am very lucky and economically privileged - I love the work I get to do here, that I can't do in NZ. 6 years ago, I chose to come to the UK.

But having your pathway to settlement & citizenship changed like this with an unclear bar to meet is v unsettling & v v v expensive.

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Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · May 12

Plus, the plan has also left me unsure of my own status. Have I met the undisclosed threshold for "contributing to the UK economy and society" to fast track the new 10 year requirement?

Screengrab of the following text from the white paper, with "ten years" and "reduce the qualifying period" and "contributions to the UK economy and society highlighted in yellow. "It has been a long-standing principle that settlement in the UK is a privilege and
not a right. Under the current system settlement is primarily qualified for on the
basis of length of time spent in the UK alongside a knowledge of life test which is
used to verify knowledge of British customs, history, traditions, laws and political
system.
263. These criteria alone do not reflect our strongly held belief that people should
contribute to the economy and society before gaining settled status in our country
and they fail to promote integration, which limits the wider benefit from long term
migration into the UK and increases pressure on public services. We will
therefore reform the current rules around settlement through an expansion
of the principle behind the Points-Based System, that individuals should
earn their right to privileged immigration status in the UK through the longterm contribution they bring to our country.
264. This expansion of the Point-Based System will increase the standard
qualifying period for settlement to ten years.
265. We will continue to offer a shorter pathway to settlement for non-UK
dependants of British citizens to five years, provided they have remained
compliant with their requirements, and we will retain existing safeguards to
protect the vulnerable, including settlement rights for victims of domestic
violence and abuse.
266. Through the expansion of the Point-Based System, individuals will also
have the opportunity to reduce the qualifying period based on Points-Based
contributions to the UK economy and society. We will consult on these
changes later this year."

Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · May 12

Today's immigration white paper has been gutting to hear about. "An island of strangers" is such not the kind of language we should be hearing from the PM. It doesn't treat anyone with dignity, and some of the proposals raise big qs for sectors like care.

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Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · May 12

I can't think of anything else in the last 4 years that could have possibly meant weak economic growth.

Screenshot of text from the i paper saying "“The theory that higher migration numbers necessarily lead to higher growth has been tested in the last four years,” he said. “We’ve had the highest net migration when the last government lost control, to nearly one million, and stagnant growth. And so that link doesn’t hold on that evidence.”

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Reposted by Rachelle Earwaker

Katie Schmuecker @katieschmuecker.bsky.social · Apr 1

Today bills go up.

@jrf-uk.bsky.social October cost of living tracker found 60% of low income families had gone without essentials in the previous 6 months - a figure barely changed in 2.5 years.

This increased to 88% where a family receives disability benefits.

And that’s before the cuts

Bar graph showing number low income households going without the essentials:
May 2022 6.9 million
Oct 2022 7.2 million
May 2023 7.3 million
Oct 2023 7.3 million
May 2024 7 million
Oct 2024 7 million

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Reposted by Rachelle Earwaker

Katie Schmuecker @katieschmuecker.bsky.social · Mar 25

Extraordinary story just published in @thetimes.com

And one that rather gives the lie to the idea that the Government’s cuts to disability benefits is driven by a moral mission about work. It’s about fiscal rules…

www.thetimes.com/article/f80d...

Rachel Reeves to announce further benefit cuts

Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, was forced to seek further cuts after the Office for Budget Responsibility rejected her welfare savings estimate

www.thetimes.com

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Reposted by Rachelle Earwaker

Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · Mar 19

Yesterday's welfare announcements have very concentrated impacts for individuals who lose eligibility (and some gains for others). Case studies just published - only the government knows how many people will suffer £9k losses. Shouldn't they tell us?

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Reposted by Rachelle Earwaker

megan @meganmay.bsky.social · Mar 18

The government’s proposal in the health and disability green paper that people should have to be awarded 4 points for one of the daily living activities in order to receive PIP is absolutely mad. Thousands of disabled people will be thrown off PIP and pushed even further into poverty.

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Reposted by Rachelle Earwaker

Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · Mar 18

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Liz Kendall's speech today laid out plans to cut disability and sickness benefits by billions.

❌ No truly moral choice would leave disabled people without support designed to allow them to lead a dignified life, or facing hardship. 1/4

The Guardian @theguardian.com · Mar 18

Liz Kendall unveils UK benefits cuts set to leave many sick and disabled worse off

Welfare secretary announces changes aimed at cutting bill by up to £5bn in face of opposition from Labour MPs * UK politics live – latest updates Liz Kendall, the welfare secretary, has faced down angry Labour MPs to unveil drastic cuts to the UK’s…

www.theguardian.com

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Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · Mar 18

Cutting support for disabled people completely undermines some of the positive employment support changes proposed by Liz Kendall today.

The govt could have made these positive changes using their tax lever, putting the cost on those with the broadest shoulders, not some of the most vulnerable.

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Reposted by Rachelle Earwaker

Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Mar 17

Thanks to @theguardian.com for covering @jrf-uk.bsky.social work (see www.theguardian.com/society/2025...). “A government that came to office pledging to end the moral scar of food bank use clearly should not be taking steps that could leave disabled people at greater risk of needing to use one.”

Keir Starmer to unveil drastic disability benefit cuts despite opposition

Changes could deny benefits to people who need help to wash or to remember to go to the toilet

www.theguardian.com

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Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · Mar 15

If these numbers in the Times are correct, these cuts would take a huge amount of money away from severely disabled people, and it’s completely morally indefensible.

Rachel Reeves needs to look to tax to address the fiscal situation, not our disability support.

Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Mar 15

The Times today: £5bn/1m = £5,000/disabled person, i.e. greater than 3 of 4 PIP rates. Unless 1 of 2 numbers in headline is wrong, this has to take money away from severely disabled people on PIP higher rate, as lower rate recipients don't get £5,000/yr. Obscene to consider this!

Snip of headline at https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/one-million-britons-disability-benefits-cut-s5kj0z7fcm, saying "1m people to have disability benefits cut by Labour. Rachel Reeves vows to ‘get a grip’ on the burgeoning welfare bill but cabinet ministers express disquiet over £5 billion savings"

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Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · Mar 14

Some news! After 5+ years of my dream job @jrf-uk.bsky.social, next week is my last. I think it's rare to really love your job. But having the best colleagues, and getting to work on such important issues everyday has meant I have.

Time to learn new things at the BBC which will be VERY different!

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Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · Mar 7

About to enter the wild world of trying to buy the world’s tiniest flat in London - does anyone have any recommendations for housing solicitors? Everyone I’ve talked to so far has only said PLEASE DO NOT USE THE ONE I DID which feels fun and alarming

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Reposted by Rachelle Earwaker

Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · Mar 4

1 in 7 workers experience ‘major earnings instability’.

Not having security and stability in earnings can seriously impact your ability to pay your bills and cover expenses. Especially if you don't have savings.

We've funded @resfoundation.bsky.social's report on unstable pay in the UK 🔽 1/3

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Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · Mar 4

Really brilliant to have worked with the team on unstable pay as @jrf-uk.bsky.social funded this work.

It helps to fill a huge data gap on month to month volatility of earnings from work - and shows low paid, young, and temporary workers are most likely to experience volatility. Do have a read!

Resolution Foundation @resfoundation.bsky.social · Mar 4

🚨 New analysis published today! 🚨

One-in-seven workers experience ‘major earnings instability’ – with pay cheques fluctuating by over a quarter multiple times a year.

Read the latest from @nyecominetti.bsky.social‬, @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social and Stephen P. Jenkins here ⤵️ buff.ly/o82JiA4

Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · Mar 4

Not to make my workplace sound unserious, but we have a meeting room called “Collabadabadoo”

Clara Murray @claradoodle.bsky.social · Mar 3

I wrote about why almost every company has a creative system for naming their office meeting rooms. (All harmless fun until you're getting fired in 'Never Mind the Bollocks')

on.ft.com/4in79pw

From Death Star to Raccoon Feet: have quirky meeting room names gone too far?

Creative titles are now an inescapable — but not always funny — part of office life

www.ft.com

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Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · Feb 25

April is looking v scary with the energy price cap increasing by 6.4%, and a huge suite of other bills about to increase too: water council tax, social rents.

Private rents are also still soaring (up ~9% on last year).

All the while benefits are only increasing by 1.7% and LHA stays frozen

Dire

The Guardian @theguardian.com · Feb 25

Average annual energy bill to rise to £1,849 in Great Britain from April

Ofgem’s increase is bigger than expected and is third consecutive rise in energy price cap * Business live – latest updates The average energy bill for households in Great Britain will rise by £111 from April to £1,849 a year for a typical…

www.theguardian.com

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Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · Feb 19

The promise of growth, amid a backdrop of rising inflation, soaring rents, utility bills growing and a weak labour market won't boost living standards on it's own

Urgent action is needed from the government to unfreeze housing benefits and ensure our benefits system reflects the cost of essentials

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Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · Feb 19

Our @jrf-uk.bsky.social projections show that living standards are set to fall over this parliament without further action from the government to support families' incomes and address costs.

Line graph showing disposable income after housing costs for the bottom 40% of households, from 2019 to 2029. Before housing costs income is broadly flat from 2024, with a dip in 2028. However housing costs continue to increase, means after housing costs income falls from 2024 to 2028.

Line graph showing disposable incomes after housing costs for quintiles, from 2019 to 2029. Households in the lowest 20% of incomes see the biggest proportionate fall in their incomes, while no income quintile sees improvement over the forecast period.

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Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · Feb 19

While slightly lower increases than last month, these we are still seeing huge rises in rents that many are struggling to pay.

And with water, council tax, and energy bills set to rise again in April, alongside housing benefits remaining frozen and UC only increasing by 1.7%, it's a dire picture.

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Rachelle Earwaker @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social · Feb 19

Inflation is up by 3%, but private rents are up by 8.7% across the UK and 11%(!!!) in London.

Across GB, it means paying ~£100 more per month on average since Jan 24, or ~£200 more per month since Jan 23.

In London, £220 more per month since Jan 24, or ~£400(!) more per month since Jan 23.

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Reposted by Rachelle Earwaker

Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · Feb 6

The @bankofengland.bsky.social forecasts expect consumer price inflation to increase to 3.7% over 2025

Families who are already struggling to pay their bills face rising energy and water bills 📈

They're in desperate need of more pounds in their pockets, as the Chancellor has promised 1/2

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