In AAA for Cardinals he pitched 57.2 IP as a reliever, with a 3.28 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 4 HR, 30.8 K%, 12.1 BB%, 47.8 GB%.

40 grade control got him on waivers repeatedly, but his stuff got him claimed. He throws an upper 90’s fastball and slider is his best pitch. He misses bats and gets ground balls.

He’s pitched 93.2 innings in MLB, and the results are ugly. The Marlins let him start 17 games, and pitch 82.2 innings, with a 6.53 ERA and 7.27 FIP, at age 24.

The Cardinals converted him to the bullpen in 2025, and he had by far his best (and only good) minor league season.

Like Yosver Zulueta, he’s a project who throws really hard, strikes out lots of guys in minors, and has a pretty good ground ball percentage.

But control problems that got other teams to put them on waivers.

Yes, according to MLB pipeline scouting report he throws 100mph, with a good slider, but control problems.

30.8 K%, 12.1 BB%, 47.8 GB% in AAA tell the story of why he’s here. While his MLB numbers tell the story of why he’s in AAA.

When his bad? How bad???

Looking at the choices, I definitely expect a Scott Barlow reunion. He got $3.5m (including $1m buyout) last year, and they decided he's worth less than $5.5m. His 2025 season wasn't really any better than his 2024.

I suspect all offers he receives to be similar, 1 year $3-4.5m, and to choose #Reds

It stands out to me that Scott Barlow (age ~33) and Nick Sandlin (age ~29, who filled a similar role for Tito in Cleveland) are very similar.

Career 27.6 K%, 10.8 BB%, 43.2 GB%, 3.60 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 3.89 xFIP
Career 27.3 K%, 11.4 BB%, 43.1 GB%, 3.19 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 4.18 xFIP

As usual, the only conclusions I can draw is that I have no idea which relievers the #Reds will end up with, but that people with positive ties to Cincinnati or Reds personnel are always the favorites. As they perhaps choose from multiple similar offers.

I probably expect a Scott Barlow reunion.

Biggest surprise of going through a list of free agents was finding that Justin Wilson had one of the higher fWARs (1.0) in 2025 of the available relievers.

After his 46.2 IP, 5.59 ERA (4.24 xERA, 4.73 FIP, 3.99 xFIP) 2024 season with #Reds, he had a 3.35 ERA (2.95 FIP) in 48.1 IP with Red Sox.

Looking for relievers with Tito Francona ties:
RHP Nick Sandlin and RHP Eli Morgan had their best years playing for Tito in Cleveland.

Relievers with Oscar Marin (Reds bullpen coach, formerly Pirates pitching coach) ties:
-RHP Scott Holderman and RHP Dauri Moreta

In this case they got a white admiral to sign off on it, despite it being explicitly against his oath, and meeting the literally definition of war crimes expressed in the officers manual, but he’s white and the targets aren’t so it’s okay.

War crimes are an American tradition, which is why we’re not part of the international courts governing them.

Brought to you by the people who like “stand your ground” laws, so white people are free to shoot minorities who are determined to be where said white person determines they shouldn’t be.

Rich white people rarely get held accountable for much.

I don’t know what you’re referring to, but I also suspect that addresses it.

As an optionable starting pitcher with a five pitch mix, and no platoon advantage against LHBs, he feels like an unlikely bullpen candidate.

It’s a lot easier to rope in fringe MLB relievers on minor league deals than starting pitchers. Which sure works in Williamson’s favor.

With the timing of his various injuries, he’ll be a 28 year old with two minor league options remaining, which probably keeps him starting in AAA.

How will his velocity be? Any changes to his 5 pitch mix during his rehab? We’ll see this spring. I think he’s much higher regarded by Reds than fans.