Forecasting Research Institute
@research-fri.bsky.social
Research institute focused on developing forecasting methods to improve decision-making on high-stakes issues, co-founded by chief scientist Philip Tetlock. https://forecastingresearch.org/
Today we’re launching the most rigorous, ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP).
339 top experts across AI, CS, economics, and policy will forecast AI’s trajectory monthly for 3 years.
🧵👇
339 top experts across AI, CS, economics, and policy will forecast AI’s trajectory monthly for 3 years.
🧵👇
November 10, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Today we’re launching the most rigorous, ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP).
339 top experts across AI, CS, economics, and policy will forecast AI’s trajectory monthly for 3 years.
🧵👇
339 top experts across AI, CS, economics, and policy will forecast AI’s trajectory monthly for 3 years.
🧵👇
Is AI on track to match top human forecasters at predicting the future?
Today, FRI is releasing an update to ForecastBench—our benchmark that tracks how accurate large language models (LLMs) are at forecasting real-world events.
Here’s what you need to know: 🧵
Today, FRI is releasing an update to ForecastBench—our benchmark that tracks how accurate large language models (LLMs) are at forecasting real-world events.
Here’s what you need to know: 🧵
October 9, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Is AI on track to match top human forecasters at predicting the future?
Today, FRI is releasing an update to ForecastBench—our benchmark that tracks how accurate large language models (LLMs) are at forecasting real-world events.
Here’s what you need to know: 🧵
Today, FRI is releasing an update to ForecastBench—our benchmark that tracks how accurate large language models (LLMs) are at forecasting real-world events.
Here’s what you need to know: 🧵
🎙️ Our CEO, Josh Rosenberg, went on
@deneufville.bsky.social's podcast podcast, Talking About The Future.
They discussed LLM biorisks, AI forecasters, how to make forecasting more useful to policy makers and much more.
Listen here: tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...
@deneufville.bsky.social's podcast podcast, Talking About The Future.
They discussed LLM biorisks, AI forecasters, how to make forecasting more useful to policy makers and much more.
Listen here: tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...
Josh Rosenberg on Forecasting Research
"In the next year to eight years, the extrapolated trend would suggest that AIs will catch up to superforecasters"
tellingthefuture.substack.com
September 24, 2025 at 3:32 PM
🎙️ Our CEO, Josh Rosenberg, went on
@deneufville.bsky.social's podcast podcast, Talking About The Future.
They discussed LLM biorisks, AI forecasters, how to make forecasting more useful to policy makers and much more.
Listen here: tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...
@deneufville.bsky.social's podcast podcast, Talking About The Future.
They discussed LLM biorisks, AI forecasters, how to make forecasting more useful to policy makers and much more.
Listen here: tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...
In 2022, we convened 169 experts and superforecasters for the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT). We collected thousands of forecasts in 172 questions across time horizons.
We now have answers for 38 questions covering AI, climate tech, bioweapons and more.
Here’s what we found out: 🧵
We now have answers for 38 questions covering AI, climate tech, bioweapons and more.
Here’s what we found out: 🧵
September 2, 2025 at 12:06 PM
In 2022, we convened 169 experts and superforecasters for the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT). We collected thousands of forecasts in 172 questions across time horizons.
We now have answers for 38 questions covering AI, climate tech, bioweapons and more.
Here’s what we found out: 🧵
We now have answers for 38 questions covering AI, climate tech, bioweapons and more.
Here’s what we found out: 🧵
Great to see our report on LLM-enabled biorisk covered in the latest issue of The Economist: www.economist.com/briefing/202...
July 25, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Great to see our report on LLM-enabled biorisk covered in the latest issue of The Economist: www.economist.com/briefing/202...
Our new study finds: recent AI capabilities could increase the risk of a human-caused epidemic by 2-5x.
One AI threshold that most experts said wouldn't be hit until 2030 was actually crossed in early 2025. But forecasters predict that enacting mitigations could reduce risk close to baseline. 🧵
One AI threshold that most experts said wouldn't be hit until 2030 was actually crossed in early 2025. But forecasters predict that enacting mitigations could reduce risk close to baseline. 🧵
July 1, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Our new study finds: recent AI capabilities could increase the risk of a human-caused epidemic by 2-5x.
One AI threshold that most experts said wouldn't be hit until 2030 was actually crossed in early 2025. But forecasters predict that enacting mitigations could reduce risk close to baseline. 🧵
One AI threshold that most experts said wouldn't be hit until 2030 was actually crossed in early 2025. But forecasters predict that enacting mitigations could reduce risk close to baseline. 🧵