Robert (Bob) Kubinec
@rmkubinec.bsky.social
9.9K followers 450 following 4.1K posts
Political scientist University of South Carolina. Interests: business politics/corruption, Middle East, measurement, Bayesian statistics The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo Website: www.robertkubinec.com
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rmkubinec.bsky.social
🧵 👋 I'm a political scientist who wrote a book about the recent collapse of two democracies (Egypt & Tunisia).

Given the anxieties of today, let me present a 🧵 with thoughts & resources for:

WHAT TO DO IF YOUR DEMOCRACY COLLAPSES:
rmkubinec.bsky.social
who wants to be like dubai?
rmkubinec.bsky.social
It's strange to see these "cost estimates" of charging cars in the NYT that don't take into account the cost of actually doing the charging.

Driving to a gas station, especially in places where they are crowded/rare, is a big time cost vs. charging at home.
cost breakdown of electric car vs. gasoline charging
rmkubinec.bsky.social
sending thoughts, prayers, and trip hop beats
rmkubinec.bsky.social
well the market does not agree
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
darrigomelanie.bsky.social
I feel like this photo of masked, armed men pepper spraying a pastor protecting his community is going to be a defining picture of this moment in America for a long, long time.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
tiagoventura.bsky.social
How common are “survey professionals” - people who take dozens of online surveys for pay - across online panels, and do they harm data quality?

Our paper, FirstView at @politicalanalysis.bsky.social, tackles this question using browsing data from three U.S. samples (Facebook, YouGov, and Lucid):
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
guygrossman.bsky.social
@carotorreblanca.bsky.social , Will Dinneen, and my paper entitled "Political Science Under Pressure: Competition and Collaboration in a Growing Discipline, 2003-2023" has been (conditionally) accepted at @poppublicsphere.bsky.social.

This paper has been a labor of love. osf.io/preprints/os...
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
grimalkina.bsky.social
A lot of people with these qualities left academia because you didn't reward us or understand when we were blocked by others but y'all aren't ready to have that conversation I guess
rmkubinec.bsky.social
The Nobel Prize is the wrong way to think about science.

My heroes aren't the people with the endowed chairs at the Ivies. They are the people who do the hard work, day in and day out, and who would take a bullet rather than inflate research findings or block others' competing research.
rmkubinec.bsky.social
#Bluesky is dead; long live #Bluesky
rmkubinec.bsky.social
The Nobel Prize is the wrong way to think about science.

My heroes aren't the people with the endowed chairs at the Ivies. They are the people who do the hard work, day in and day out, and who would take a bullet rather than inflate research findings or block others' competing research.
rmkubinec.bsky.social
Although a big question is how much of this usage is simply search engine displacement as search engine results get worse and worse.
pewresearch.org
Today, 21% of U.S. workers say at least some of their work is done with AI. That share is up from 16% roughly a year ago. www.pewresearch.org/...
A line chart showing the share of U.S. workers using AI on the job is up 5 points since last year.
rmkubinec.bsky.social
That's it, the regime is falling
dieworkwear.bsky.social
this is the jacket's breast pocket lining pulled up to make it look like a pocket square
Stephen Miller in a gray suit, white shirt, and gray tie. A close-up of his breast pocket.
rmkubinec.bsky.social
For anyone who does Bayesian modeling with Pymc, I have a last-minute consulting requirement that could use some outside help. Please ping me if interested (rate $60-70/hour).
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
sifill.bsky.social
So say it, Hegseth.

President Truman desegregated the military in 1948. That would be when the “wokeness” began, huh?

Say it.
atrupar.com
Trump: "We won World War 1. We won World War 2. We won everything in between. We won everything before. And all of the sudden they decide to change the name. They went woke then too, you know. Woke is a long term. Word."
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
reptedlieu.bsky.social
We do not deploy American forces against Americans in our own cities.

Our military is not trained for domestic law enforcement.

It’s illegal and un-American.
rmkubinec.bsky.social
Cluster robust standard errors
rmkubinec.bsky.social
I'm not the biggest fan of all these people but you can have a debate about ideals/strategy without having to reject anyone. Like you can just make a decision and move on.
wajali.bsky.social
The one positive from the past two weeks is that also the establishment "moderates" are being exposed, revealed, and rejected by the majority.

Includes Van Jones, Ezra Klein, The Abundance Crew, Friedman, Maher, Yglesias, and on...
rmkubinec.bsky.social
A lot of people think that US academics won't move to the UK because of resource constraints and different institutional cultures, but actually it's because the pronunciation of "schedule" as "shedule" is so deeply triggering
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
nicholasgrossman.bsky.social
The regime's desire for authoritarianism is bottomless, but their capacity is not. Not even close.

They rely on bluster and memes to make up the difference. The threat is real, but less powerful than they say.

Freedom-loving Americans outnumber them by a lot. Communities can resist. Like this one:
cristianfarias.com
This video of Chicagoans intervening to save a man from being abducted off the streets by ICE is making the rounds on Instagram.

Community action works.

Source: www.instagram.com/reel/DPZL2AL...
rmkubinec.bsky.social
that fancy Wheaton education, and a 6-year old ended it all
rmkubinec.bsky.social
well you're doing great with the bluesky content, just try to transfer that to high-dimensional fixed effects
rmkubinec.bsky.social
When methodologists tell you to avoid relying too much on the assumptions in statistical models while also selling you on their latest model
efrenpolipsy.bsky.social
My mom last night: “mi’jo, you’re putting on some weight. You should eat better.

Also my mom: here are some chilaquiles with queso fresco for breakfast tomorrow.

Win win? 🇲🇽🌵🤠
rmkubinec.bsky.social
he's one of these people who is very bright/clever but who feels fine moving way beyond evidence/doesn't need to bother with corrections when he's wrong
rmkubinec.bsky.social
Is it curvilinear though? And is the equilibrium point stable? Good work on the whole, though, could be publishable with some revisions.