Raphael Nishimura
@rnishimura.bsky.social
Survey methodologist and statistician at the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
#survey | #sampling | #statistics | #RStats
#survey | #sampling | #statistics | #RStats
E o mais importante, a descrição metodológica da pesquisa:
January 13, 2026 at 4:20 AM
E o mais importante, a descrição metodológica da pesquisa:
Cenários de 2° turno: +
January 13, 2026 at 4:20 AM
Cenários de 2° turno: +
Cenários de 1° turno com Michelle: +
January 13, 2026 at 4:20 AM
Cenários de 1° turno com Michelle: +
Resultados da pesquisa Meio Ideia, primeira pesquisa pré-eleitoral nacional de 2026 registrada no TSE (BR-06731/2026).
Pesquisa telefônica com 2 mil entrevistas realizadas entre 08/01 e 12/01.
Perguntas espotânea e estimuladas com cenários de 1° turno com Tarcísio e Flávio): +
Pesquisa telefônica com 2 mil entrevistas realizadas entre 08/01 e 12/01.
Perguntas espotânea e estimuladas com cenários de 1° turno com Tarcísio e Flávio): +
January 13, 2026 at 4:20 AM
Resultados da pesquisa Meio Ideia, primeira pesquisa pré-eleitoral nacional de 2026 registrada no TSE (BR-06731/2026).
Pesquisa telefônica com 2 mil entrevistas realizadas entre 08/01 e 12/01.
Perguntas espotânea e estimuladas com cenários de 1° turno com Tarcísio e Flávio): +
Pesquisa telefônica com 2 mil entrevistas realizadas entre 08/01 e 12/01.
Perguntas espotânea e estimuladas com cenários de 1° turno com Tarcísio e Flávio): +
Merry Christmas! 🎅🎄
December 25, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Merry Christmas! 🎅🎄
Also, I tried to replicate their weight according to the stated methodology. There is a discrepancy here because in one it's mentioned they weighted by 2016 recall vote, but not in the other. From other polls of the same pollster, I'm pretty sure they did weight by recall vote. +
December 20, 2025 at 1:15 AM
Also, I tried to replicate their weight according to the stated methodology. There is a discrepancy here because in one it's mentioned they weighted by 2016 recall vote, but not in the other. From other polls of the same pollster, I'm pretty sure they did weight by recall vote. +
Below is their 2020 national poll methods per Roper Center. Not much different to what a lot of other pollster are doing. However, if you look at the polling microdata also in Roper...+
December 20, 2025 at 1:11 AM
Below is their 2020 national poll methods per Roper Center. Not much different to what a lot of other pollster are doing. However, if you look at the polling microdata also in Roper...+
What would once be the dream of any subjectivity Bayesian -- the popularization of using wagering odds as probabilities, is now becoming a real dystopia... 😫
December 4, 2025 at 1:56 PM
What would once be the dream of any subjectivity Bayesian -- the popularization of using wagering odds as probabilities, is now becoming a real dystopia... 😫
yeah yeah, but how cool is going to be seeing this in live action 😛
November 18, 2025 at 12:12 AM
yeah yeah, but how cool is going to be seeing this in live action 😛
This is some sort of measurement error, just don't ask me which 😅
www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcn...
www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcn...
November 15, 2025 at 1:39 AM
This is some sort of measurement error, just don't ask me which 😅
www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcn...
www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcn...
Did you say "representative sample"?
November 7, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Did you say "representative sample"?
A year ago today, AtlasIntel said they would deposit at the Roper Center the raw data from their final polls. It's still not there.
Something tells me they will not be depositing that data file, neither the ones from this week's polls...
Something tells me they will not be depositing that data file, neither the ones from this week's polls...
November 7, 2025 at 8:47 PM
A year ago today, AtlasIntel said they would deposit at the Roper Center the raw data from their final polls. It's still not there.
Something tells me they will not be depositing that data file, neither the ones from this week's polls...
Something tells me they will not be depositing that data file, neither the ones from this week's polls...
Believe or not, the New Jersey poll wasn't the lowest point in US elections for the (former?) "American most accurate pollster", AtlasIntel
Take a look at their final poll in the PNP Primaries in Puerto Rico last year:
Poll: Pierluisi +14
Result: González +9
That's a 23-points difference!
Take a look at their final poll in the PNP Primaries in Puerto Rico last year:
Poll: Pierluisi +14
Result: González +9
That's a 23-points difference!
November 6, 2025 at 3:05 AM
Believe or not, the New Jersey poll wasn't the lowest point in US elections for the (former?) "American most accurate pollster", AtlasIntel
Take a look at their final poll in the PNP Primaries in Puerto Rico last year:
Poll: Pierluisi +14
Result: González +9
That's a 23-points difference!
Take a look at their final poll in the PNP Primaries in Puerto Rico last year:
Poll: Pierluisi +14
Result: González +9
That's a 23-points difference!
l guess NJ is a small demographic subgroup for AtlasIntel standards?
November 5, 2025 at 5:06 AM
l guess NJ is a small demographic subgroup for AtlasIntel standards?
They literally just published a NYC poll two days ago, but sure, why not?
November 3, 2025 at 4:11 AM
They literally just published a NYC poll two days ago, but sure, why not?
LMAO That's not how margins of error work. They reflect random sampling error (variance), not systematic errors, which clearly seems to be the case here, when looking across polls.
Also, saying with a straight face that what's shady is if the crosstab looks okay. C'mon, you are not even trying! 😅
Also, saying with a straight face that what's shady is if the crosstab looks okay. C'mon, you are not even trying! 😅
November 3, 2025 at 1:40 AM
LMAO That's not how margins of error work. They reflect random sampling error (variance), not systematic errors, which clearly seems to be the case here, when looking across polls.
Also, saying with a straight face that what's shady is if the crosstab looks okay. C'mon, you are not even trying! 😅
Also, saying with a straight face that what's shady is if the crosstab looks okay. C'mon, you are not even trying! 😅
By the way, in a week this post will be 1 year old and they haven't posted their data to the Roper Center yet... Something tells me this is not going to happen...
November 1, 2025 at 2:31 AM
By the way, in a week this post will be 1 year old and they haven't posted their data to the Roper Center yet... Something tells me this is not going to happen...
P.S. 2: I wouldn't try to argue with me on this
[meme by my lovely better half, @joywilke.bsky.social 😅]
[meme by my lovely better half, @joywilke.bsky.social 😅]
October 22, 2025 at 2:34 PM
P.S. 2: I wouldn't try to argue with me on this
[meme by my lovely better half, @joywilke.bsky.social 😅]
[meme by my lovely better half, @joywilke.bsky.social 😅]
Oh, I see some new weighting variables here. Cool!
And yes, the methods report is the very first thing I look at a new poll 🤓
And yes, the methods report is the very first thing I look at a new poll 🤓
September 30, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Oh, I see some new weighting variables here. Cool!
And yes, the methods report is the very first thing I look at a new poll 🤓
And yes, the methods report is the very first thing I look at a new poll 🤓
Interesting result on the effect of presenting a "No opinion" option on this Washington Post-Ipsos poll
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
September 19, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Interesting result on the effect of presenting a "No opinion" option on this Washington Post-Ipsos poll
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Trump is threatening Brazil with 50% tariffs for no reason whatsoever -- It's Brazil that has a trade deficit with the US...
July 9, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Trump is threatening Brazil with 50% tariffs for no reason whatsoever -- It's Brazil that has a trade deficit with the US...
I wouldn't hold my hopes on that:
"We don't need to set any standards given that anyone who is a member or future member of this organization has already established that they are among the most accurate pollsters in America"
Like, they are not even trying 😅
"We don't need to set any standards given that anyone who is a member or future member of this organization has already established that they are among the most accurate pollsters in America"
Like, they are not even trying 😅
July 8, 2025 at 1:24 PM
I wouldn't hold my hopes on that:
"We don't need to set any standards given that anyone who is a member or future member of this organization has already established that they are among the most accurate pollsters in America"
Like, they are not even trying 😅
"We don't need to set any standards given that anyone who is a member or future member of this organization has already established that they are among the most accurate pollsters in America"
Like, they are not even trying 😅
This has to be a joke, right?
July 8, 2025 at 12:35 PM
This has to be a joke, right?