Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 6d

Really bummed we are already in October, but not quite there yet!

1

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 8d

That's right, these are new variables added to the weighting, presumably to adjust for nonresponse.

1

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 8d

Oh, I see some new weighting variables here. Cool!
And yes, the methods report is the very first thing I look at a new poll 🤓

1 3

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · 19d

Interesting result on the effect of presenting a "No opinion" option on this Washington Post-Ipsos poll
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

1 3

Reposted by Raphael Nishimura

Institute for Social Research (ISR) - University of Michigan @umisr.bsky.social · Aug 13

Dr. Sunghee Lee (@sungheelee.bsky.social‬) featured in this NYT article examining the consequences of deep NIH cuts on health disparities research. Her work on dementia in underrepresented populations was defunded despite its critical value.
Read more: myumi.ch/W6dZb
#HealthEquity #SocialResearch

With Deep N.I.H. Cuts, Research Into Health Disparities Falters
In its campaign against “woke” science, the Trump administration has closed down studies and programs focused on the gaps between racial and socioeconomic groups.

10 15

Reposted by Raphael Nishimura

Mark Rieke @markjrieke.bsky.social · Aug 7

I got asked to take uncertainty intervals off a chart because the lower tail showed potentially a 0% lift and like nah dawg I will not be doing that. You can take uncertainty out of the chart but you can't take it out of the system --- if you wanna delude yourself, that's between you and god

1 5

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Aug 13

Clustering makes in-person data collection much more operationally efficient! Oh wait, you are not talking about cluster sampling?

1 2

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Aug 12

I'd suggest contacting the ANES team by email directly on this.

1

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Aug 12

🚨 All data nerds 🤓: ANES 2024 full release is now available!

American National Election Studies @electionstudies.bsky.social · Aug 12

The full release of the ANES 2024 Time Series #Data is now available. More details here: electionstudies.org/anes-announc...

Full release of the ANES 2024 is now available.

1 19 40

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Aug 11

🚨 For all data nerds 🤓 out there: incoming announcement for a new data release!

3

Reposted by Raphael Nishimura

Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · Aug 7

THREAD: There are a lot of unanswered questions 12 hours after President Trump — who, according to the Constitution, has no final authority over the census — released a social media post calling for unprecedented changes to how the government produces data that forms the foundation of U.S. democracy

Trump wants a new U.S. census to exclude people here illegally. It'd be unprecedented

Trump is calling for a "new" census that excludes people in the U.S. without legal status. The 14th Amendment requires the "whole number of persons in each state" in a key set of census results.

www.npr.org

13 100 190

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Aug 7

Even if you dislike the results, don't kill the polls!

Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · Aug 7

I really hate it when people blame "polling" for the behavior of people they find annoying online

open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...

2

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Aug 3

I *really* hope ACS never gets to Trump's attention over the next few years...

9

Reposted by Raphael Nishimura

American Association for Public Opinion Research @aapor.bsky.social · Aug 2

AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer aapor.org/statements/a...

AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer - AAPOR

On behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), we write to express deep concern regarding the removal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Erika McE...

aapor.org

4 37 61

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Jul 25

I approve this entire response! 😄
Especially how you folks are implementing this adjustment. I thought the blog post missed some of these details, but I understand you also need to keep it simple for a wider audience.

1

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Jul 23

Past vote weight-ers, rejoice!!! 🎉

www.pewresearch.org/decoded/2025...

Why and how we’re weighting surveys for past presidential vote

This piece explains why, when and how we are weighting our surveys on Americans’ past vote.

www.pewresearch.org

1 9

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Jul 23

Black Sabbath, principalmente no começo, tem muito de uma pegada doom metal. Se eles não fossem os pais do heavy metal, certamente seria ao menos os pais do doom metal.

2 4

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Jul 19

bsky.app/profile/poll...

Poll Tracker 📊 @polltracker.bsky.social · Jul 18

New Democratic Primary Poll (2028) - Atlas Intel

Buttigieg 26.7%
Ocasio-Cortez 18.5%
Newsom 15.8%
Harris 14.5%
Walz 8.7%
Booker 4.1%
Mamdani 4%
Shapiro 3.2%
None 2.3%
Whitmer 1.4%
Warnock 0.5%
Emanuel 0.3%

cdn.atlasintel.org/20e36f18-42b...

1 1

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Jul 19

Who in their right mind would poll Mamdani in a Democratic primary for president?!
Oh, right, of course! 🤭

1 3

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Jul 9

Trump is threatening Brazil with 50% tariffs for no reason whatsoever -- It's Brazil that has a trade deficit with the US...

6

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Jul 9

Add to that Brazil at 50% for no reason whatsoever, giving that Brazil is the country with a commercial deficit with the US...

1

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Jul 8

I wouldn't hold my hopes on that:
"We don't need to set any standards given that anyone who is a member or future member of this organization has already established that they are among the most accurate pollsters in America"
Like, they are not even trying 😅

1

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Jul 8

Yeap, this should be the opposite of AAPOR/ROPER -- being a member of this counts against the transparency score

1

Raphael Nishimura @rnishimura.bsky.social · Jul 8

This has to be a joke, right?

1 3 18

Reposted by Raphael Nishimura

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · Jul 5

This week's E is for Epi newsletter: what the NYTimes' hit piece on Zohran Mamdani can tell us about the importance of good survey design.

Read it here: open.substack.com/pub/epiellie...

Mamdani, Race, and Survey Design

Ask the wrong question, get the wrong answer.

open.substack.com

4 7 49