robinryder.bsky.social
Robin Ryder
@robinryder.bsky.social
850 followers 120 following 83 posts
Mathematician at Imperial College London. Bayesian statistics, Data science, Languages, Phylogenies.
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robinryder.bsky.social
Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 1d
Jolie illustration du paradoxe de Simpson !
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dieworkwear.bsky.social
derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 7d
Jane Goodall was my first childhood hero, as I loved animals as a kid and was inspired by her story. I still remember the National Geographic specials about her. RIP.
Jane Goodall reaches out and touches a small monkey.
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robinryder.bsky.social
Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 7d
If the first link does not work, try this one instead:
www.imperial.ac.uk/jobs/search-...
Description
Please note that job descriptions are not exhaustive, and you may be asked to take on additional duties that align with the key responsibilities ment...
www.imperial.ac.uk
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robinryder.bsky.social
Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 7d
It's a great opportunity for recent PhD graduates who wish to pursue a career in academia.

Salary: in the range £49,017 - £57,472 per annum
Deadline to apply: 11 November.

Please contact me if you have questions!
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robinryder.bsky.social
Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 7d
We are hiring!

We are inviting applications for the Chapman Fellowship in Statistics at Imperial College London.

This is a kind of super-postdoc: 3 years contract, excellent working conditions, and candidates are expected to propose an independent research plan.

www.imperial.ac.uk/jobs//search...
Imperial College London Authentication - Stale Request
www.imperial.ac.uk
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isba-bayesian.bsky.social
International Society for Bayesian Analysis @isba-bayesian.bsky.social · 14d
Proposals for contributed talks & posters are now being accepted for the 2026 ISBA World Meeting! The world meeting will take place in Nagoya, Japan between 28 June and 3 July, 2026. Proposals may be submitted here: forms.gle/dVTUrdEuVF6g...
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robinryder.bsky.social
Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 16d
Of course! It's open to all countries.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 16d
Update: the ISBA membership section has been updated. You can (and should 😉) now join our section!
Reposted by Robin Ryder
isba-bayesian.bsky.social
International Society for Bayesian Analysis @isba-bayesian.bsky.social · 16d
The newest section of ISBA has been formed to promote Bayesian methods in the social sciences! Find out more 👇
adrianraftery.bsky.social
Adrian Raftery @adrianraftery.bsky.social · 17d
The new Bayesian Social Sciences section of @isba-bayesian.bsky.social has just been created: bss-isba.github.io. The committee is myself as chair, @robinryder.bsky.social, chair elect from 2027, @nialfriel.bsky.social, program chair, @monjalexander.bsky.social, Treasurer, EJWagenmakers, Secretary.
Home - BSS-ISBA
bss-isba.github.io
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robinryder.bsky.social
Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 16d
Do get in touch if you'd like to be involved.

ISBA members will be able to join the section (via the ISBA website) very soon.

The next Bayesian Methods in the Social Sciences conference is planned for December 2026 in Dublin. Watch this space!
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robinryder.bsky.social
Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 16d
I'm delighted to serve as Chair-Elect for this new section, along with Chair @adrianraftery.bsky.social, Programme chair @nialfriel.bsky.social, Treasurer @monjalexander.bsky.social, and Secretary EJ Wagenmakers.

I'm looking forward to building this section and serving the community!
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robinryder.bsky.social
Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · 16d
I'm super excited to announce that ISBA @isba-bayesian.bsky.social has voted to start a new section on Bayesian Social Sciences! It will be a great way to further collaborations with many disciplines in the Social Sciences and Humanities.

bss-isba.github.io
Home - BSS-ISBA
bss-isba.github.io
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Reposted by Robin Ryder
berthetmelissa.bsky.social
Mélissa Berthet @berthetmelissa.bsky.social · 21d
Really nice coverage of our work on bonobo syntax with Simon Townsend and Martin Surbeck, by @rfieldmouse.bsky.social. Thanks so much, Rachel!

www.nature.com/articles/d41...
AI is helping to decode animals’ speech. Will it also let us talk with them?
The complexity of vocal communication in some primates, whales and birds might approach that of human language.
www.nature.com
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robinryder.bsky.social
Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · Aug 28
A great overview of SBI by @fxbriol.bsky.social

If you missed the conference, check out his slides!
fxbriol.bsky.social
François-Xavier Briol @fxbriol.bsky.social · Aug 28
Just finished delivering a course on 'Robust and scalable simulation-based inference (SBI)' at Greek Stochastics. This covered an introduction to SBI, open challenges, and some recent contributions from my own group.

The slides are now available here: fxbriol.github.io/pdfs/slides-....
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richardpmann.bsky.social
Richard Mann @richardpmann.bsky.social · Aug 5
Do diversification rates and molecular evolution covary? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s surprising how much falls into place if we assume they do doi.org/10.1093/sysb...
Evolutionary Tempo, Supertaxa, and Living Fossils
Abstract. A relationship between the rate of molecular change and diversification has long been discussed, on both theoretical and empirical grounds. Howev
doi.org
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Reposted by Robin Ryder
monjalexander.bsky.social
Monica Alexander @monjalexander.bsky.social · Jul 28
The wonderful Niamh Cahill is recruiting a PhD student (co-supervised by me!) to work on estimating and projecting population exposure to extreme sea levels. Please contact me if interested!
maynoothuniversity.ie
Maynooth University @maynoothuniversity.ie · Jun 19
MU Prof Niamh Cahill has been awarded nearly €520,000 in funding by the @epaireland.bsky.social for a research project on rising sea levels and their impact on Ireland.

https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/faculty-science-engineering/news/mu-researcher-awarded-epa-funding-project-rising-sea-levels
MU researcher awarded EPA funding for project on rising sea levels | Maynooth University
Prof Niamh Cahill of the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, the Hamilton Institute and ICARUS has been awarded nearly €520,000 in funding by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for a research project on rising sea levels and their impact on Ireland. Prof Cahill received €519,880 for...
www.maynoothuniversity.ie
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spmontecarlo.bsky.social
Sam Power @spmontecarlo.bsky.social · Jul 24
I am pleased to announce that together with some friends, we are organising a workshop on Non-Reversible MCMC Sampling, taking place at Newcastle University from 8–10 September 2025.

Details on the programme and registration can be found at the workshop website (sites.google.com/view/probai-...).
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balthasarbickel.bsky.social
Balthasar Bickel @balthasarbickel.bsky.social · Jul 18
Exciting new opening @nccrlanguage.bsky.social with the option of permanent extension. If you work in cutting-edge stats and are interested in joining a highly inter-disciplinary, vibrant community, don't hesitate to apply at tinyurl.com/3fxwjk8e
UZH: Statistician
Within the National Center of Competence in Research (NCCR) Evolving Language and its 46 different research groups from a large variety of disciplines across Switzerland, and the University of Zurich ...
tinyurl.com
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Reposted by Robin Ryder
Martin Modrák @modrakm.bsky.social · Jul 11
New on the blog: Using Bayesian tools to be a better frequentist

Turns out that for neg. bin. regression with small samples, standard frequentist tools fail to achieve their stated goals. Bayesian computation ends up providing better frequentist guarantees. www.martinmodrak.cz/2025/07/09/u...
Using Bayesian tools to be a better frequentist
www.martinmodrak.cz
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robinryder.bsky.social
Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · Jul 9
The methods scale well (by ABC standards). Here is the output on real data with about 300 parameters to infer. Notice that the local parameters do vary quite a lot, and allowing for that variation allows for better inference of the global parameters.
Posterior distribution for two parameters. Left: parameter R0. The posterior using a model at the departmental level is much more peaked that the posteriror using a model at the national level. Right: paramer ν. There is only one curve at the national curve, but many individual posteriors at the departmental level, showing a lot of heterogeneity. Map of France showing the paramer ν_k at each department. values are lower in the North-East (ν_k of the order of 0.5 and larger in the West (values varying between 1 and 3.5).
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robinryder.bsky.social
Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · Jul 9
We have found that both Over Sampling and Under Matching give significant improvements with mis-specified models or outliers, as these schemes make it easier to catch the tails of the posterior predictive.
Performance of 7 algorithms. For most of the figure, the ordering is: worst ABC-SMC, the ABC-Vanilla or ABC-SMC, then permABC-Vanilla or permABC-SMC, then Under-Matching, then Over-Sampling
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robinryder.bsky.social
Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · Jul 9
We then progressively increase M₀<M₁<… <Mₜ=K, giving another sequential scheme. We could combine over sampling and under matching but haven't considered that in this paper.
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Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · Jul 9
In Under Matching, we take the complementary approach: we simulate synthetic data of the appropriate size, but the distance between synthetic and observed data is only computed on the closest M₀ compartments. Again, matching is easier, since we start with the easiest parts of the data.
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robinryder.bsky.social
Robin Ryder @robinryder.bsky.social · Jul 9
We then progressively decrease L₀>L₁>… >Lₜ=K. This defines a different sequential scheme, which is practical because we are allowing for permutations of the data.
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