Rob Wood
@robwoodecon.bsky.social
Chief UK Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Pay slowdown this year is also mainly driven by firms passing NICS into weaker wages, rather than weak demand.
July 28, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Pay slowdown this year is also mainly driven by firms passing NICS into weaker wages, rather than weak demand.
It isn't income-driven in consumer confidence. The most optimistic income group, and the one seeing smallest fall in confidence since election, is 50K plus, the age group with the biggest rise in optimism since election is 16-29.
July 25, 2025 at 2:50 PM
It isn't income-driven in consumer confidence. The most optimistic income group, and the one seeing smallest fall in confidence since election, is 50K plus, the age group with the biggest rise in optimism since election is 16-29.
I think thats broadly right but huge difference between say -10k a month (still consistent with surveys) and -35k for monetary policy. Former is a correction, the latter a proper recession. While taking some of your points, I think weight of evidence points to smaller jobs falls than payrolls.
July 17, 2025 at 10:25 AM
I think thats broadly right but huge difference between say -10k a month (still consistent with surveys) and -35k for monetary policy. Former is a correction, the latter a proper recession. While taking some of your points, I think weight of evidence points to smaller jobs falls than payrolls.
Most of the improvement in LFS sample size had happened by the base, so on that basis there will be little bias in latest 3 on 3
July 17, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Most of the improvement in LFS sample size had happened by the base, so on that basis there will be little bias in latest 3 on 3
Payrolls still overstating job growth relative to surveys and one of best performing models points to improvement. REC is one of the poorest performing surveys for forecasting job growth. Best surveys point to more like 15k falls in employees and DMP now suggests rises.
July 17, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Payrolls still overstating job growth relative to surveys and one of best performing models points to improvement. REC is one of the poorest performing surveys for forecasting job growth. Best surveys point to more like 15k falls in employees and DMP now suggests rises.
Quite so, and its the latest data that is the key. Is employment falling or not. Payrolls says yes—although half as much as payrolls said a month ago so far this year—WfJ and LFS say no. LFS would be lower absent sample changes but unlikely to be showing falling jobs like payrolls.
July 17, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Quite so, and its the latest data that is the key. Is employment falling or not. Payrolls says yes—although half as much as payrolls said a month ago so far this year—WfJ and LFS say no. LFS would be lower absent sample changes but unlikely to be showing falling jobs like payrolls.
Or more likely the LFS would have been stronger in 2023 and 2024. If it is now representative, and used to be in 2019, the change over the period in the chart is fine.
July 17, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Or more likely the LFS would have been stronger in 2023 and 2024. If it is now representative, and used to be in 2019, the change over the period in the chart is fine.
yes and that ONS comment was on data to March, so we already have 2 of the 6 months of estimates, and its not like its a switch that goes from biased to unbiased. The previous four months of data will also have been cohering. Besides, whats wrong with WfJ too?
July 17, 2025 at 9:40 AM
yes and that ONS comment was on data to March, so we already have 2 of the 6 months of estimates, and its not like its a switch that goes from biased to unbiased. The previous four months of data will also have been cohering. Besides, whats wrong with WfJ too?
The ONS say the low LFS vs PAYE in 2023 was due to poor sampling and LFS *was* catching up. ONS say that process has worked through by now (see below). Question remains, do you believe payrolls more, which were just revised job falls so far this year in *half*.
July 17, 2025 at 9:34 AM
The ONS say the low LFS vs PAYE in 2023 was due to poor sampling and LFS *was* catching up. ONS say that process has worked through by now (see below). Question remains, do you believe payrolls more, which were just revised job falls so far this year in *half*.
More volatile yes, not upward biased
In any case, what's wrong with WfJ?
In any case, what's wrong with WfJ?
July 17, 2025 at 9:20 AM
More volatile yes, not upward biased
In any case, what's wrong with WfJ?
In any case, what's wrong with WfJ?
The current economic conjuncture is hard enough to diagnose without being unable to trust the data. The saving rate will make good headlines today, but be very wary about data held together with double-sided sticking tape. Those Blue Peter creations didn't last long either.
March 28, 2025 at 9:50 AM
The current economic conjuncture is hard enough to diagnose without being unable to trust the data. The saving rate will make good headlines today, but be very wary about data held together with double-sided sticking tape. Those Blue Peter creations didn't last long either.
The saving rate depends on measuring income accurately, but that is infected by the unreliable LFS jobs data. Statisticians put sticking plasters over the problems by using payrolls to 'adjust' income, but how much should we trust that after PPI and trade data had mistakes?(7/n)
March 28, 2025 at 9:50 AM
The saving rate depends on measuring income accurately, but that is infected by the unreliable LFS jobs data. Statisticians put sticking plasters over the problems by using payrolls to 'adjust' income, but how much should we trust that after PPI and trade data had mistakes?(7/n)
Back in early 2023 the headlines would have reported a household saving rate surging to 9.3% in Q4 2022, from 6.8% in Q1 2022... now the ONS think the saving rate *fell* in 2022, to 6.5% in Q4 from 7.0% in Q1. From rocketing to falling is quite some change in view (6/n)
March 28, 2025 at 9:50 AM
Back in early 2023 the headlines would have reported a household saving rate surging to 9.3% in Q4 2022, from 6.8% in Q1 2022... now the ONS think the saving rate *fell* in 2022, to 6.5% in Q4 from 7.0% in Q1. From rocketing to falling is quite some change in view (6/n)