Ronan Mainprize
@ronanmainprize.bsky.social
710 followers 460 following 34 posts
Ax:son Johnson Postdoctoral Fellow, Center for Statecraft and Strategic Communication Research on intelligence, statecraft, and strategy • Writing a book on Lyndon Johnson, the CIA, and the Global Cold War • University of Warwick PhD
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ronanmainprize.bsky.social
New research from me - published in the @officialbaas.bsky.social Journal of American Studies - on William Raborn's tenure as Director of Central Intelligence. 🇺🇲

Including the Dominican Intervention, Vietnam, and some tragicomic anecdotes.

Available Open Access 🔓: shorturl.at/PG4Eb
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
rikefranke.bsky.social
“Companies in the sector have raised €2.4bn since the start of 2022 including €1.4bn in the first seven months of this year alone, up from just €30mn in 2020 and €150mn in 2021”

on.ft.com/3VJiU0d
Europe’s defence tech start-ups attract investment surge
Russia’s war in Ukraine and fears over US security relationship drive wave of VC funding
on.ft.com
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
matthefler.bsky.social
Glad speaking with @svenskadagbladet1.bsky.social on US intelligence on Iran and how to consider the public disputes around assessments 🇺🇸

Though hard to guauge from outside, recent events remind us to beware politicization of intelligence or secret services 🌍

English 👇

www.svd.se/a/kwoBJX/exp...
Expert: Underrättelser om Iran har blivit politik
De motstridiga uppgifterna om bombningen av Iran tyder enligt spioneriexperten Matthew Hefler på att underrättelse i USA håller på att bli politik.
www.svd.se
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
matthefler.bsky.social
Thanks to Sweden’s national TV network @svtnyheter.bsky.social for getting my reaction to 🇸🇪's recent intelligence review by Carl Bildt 🌍

I said that a new foreign intelligence agency will take time and must reflect Sweden's security needs and "intelligence culture" 🛠️ 🇸🇪

www.svt.se/nyheter/inri...
Experten om ett ”svenskt CIA”: Verkar vilja gå i den riktningen
”Kan bli betydande förändringar” • Ny svensk underrättelsemyndighet föreslås
www.svt.se
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
patporter76.bsky.social
Me in @TheCriticMag: David Ben-Gurion believed Israel in its hostile region could never have finality on its terms. It would always have to deter, requiring discipline. Netanyahu's war of temptation on Iran rejects that vision. Decisiveness may elude him.
thecritic.co.uk/deterrence-r...
Deterrence requires discipline | Patrick Porter | The Critic Magazine
To deter, or to destroy? To try to dissuade adversaries from attacking one’s people or interests, or to take the gloves off and try to eliminate them? It’s a question central to Israel’s history…
thecritic.co.uk
ronanmainprize.bsky.social
Stuck in Copenhagen airport all day, but luckily I have some great reading material with me 📚
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
julianbarnes.bsky.social
American intel agencies have assessed that, despite Israel's attack, Iran has not decided to move to a nuclear weapon. That could change, officials said, if the US attacks Fordo or Israel kills the Supreme leader. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/u...
U.S. Spy Agencies Assess Iran Remains Undecided on Building a Bomb
www.nytimes.com
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
wsj.com
Exclusive: President Trump told senior aides he approved attack plans for Iran, but is holding off on giving the final order to see if Tehran will abandon its nuclear program.
Trump Privately Approved Attack Plans For Iran But Has Withheld Final Order
The president is hoping that threatening to join Israel’s strikes will lead Tehran to abandon its nuclear program.
on.wsj.com
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
ronanmainprize.bsky.social
On ‘64, I’d also add Burr and Richelson’s article in International Security (www.jstor.org/stable/2626706) and a @sarabcastro.bsky.social chapter about assumptions and intelligence on China’s nuclear programme (bokforlagetstolpe.com/en/books/int...).
ronanmainprize.bsky.social
I’ve been thinking a lot about Frank Gavin’s ‘Nuclear Statecraft’, in particular ch. 4 on US policy towards China’s nuclear test in ‘64.

Provocative for thinking about the risks of nuclear armed rogue states and proliferation in 2025. An analogy to ‘64 perhaps shows a rush to war is unnecessary?
ronanmainprize.bsky.social
On ‘64, I’d also add Burr and Richelson’s article in International Security (www.jstor.org/stable/2626706) and a @sarabcastro.bsky.social chapter about assumptions and intelligence on China’s nuclear programme (bokforlagetstolpe.com/en/books/int...).
ronanmainprize.bsky.social
I’ve been thinking a lot about Frank Gavin’s ‘Nuclear Statecraft’, in particular ch. 4 on US policy towards China’s nuclear test in ‘64.

Provocative for thinking about the risks of nuclear armed rogue states and proliferation in 2025. An analogy to ‘64 perhaps shows a rush to war is unnecessary?
ronanmainprize.bsky.social
I’ve been thinking a lot about Frank Gavin’s ‘Nuclear Statecraft’, in particular ch. 4 on US policy towards China’s nuclear test in ‘64.

Provocative for thinking about the risks of nuclear armed rogue states and proliferation in 2025. An analogy to ‘64 perhaps shows a rush to war is unnecessary?
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
julianbarnes.bsky.social
Will China's spy agencies adopt A.I. tools faster than the west? New report by Recorded Future on Chinese intelligence agencies investments in A.I. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/u...
China’s Spy Agencies Are Investing Heavily in A.I., Researchers Say
www.nytimes.com
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
matthefler.bsky.social
Podcast alert! 🚨 📻 I had the pleasure of chatting about my collection Intelligence and Contemporary Conflict on "Yukiko and Patrik meet"👇

This book brings together experts on issues of intelligence and security and was produced by the Ax:son Johnson Institute 🌍

open.spotify.com/episode/6VsQ...
7. Yukiko och Patrik möter Matthew Hefler
Stolpe Stories · Episode
open.spotify.com
ronanmainprize.bsky.social
With a lot of discussion about the US-Israel alliance in the news, I’m resharing an article I wrote last year for @engelsbergideas.bsky.social on how LBJ and the Cold War 1960s helped establish what became a special relationship 🇺🇸🇮🇱
How LBJ forged the US-Israel alliance
The special relationship between the United States and Israel was cemented by the support offered by Lyndon B. Johnson throughout the sixties.
engelsbergideas.com
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize
shashj.bsky.social
A small boost for intelligence services in the spending review. "At this SR, the government will deliver an increase of £0.6 billion to the Single Intelligence Account...by 2028‑29, reflecting the rising demand on the [IC] to illuminate & deter threats." www.gov.uk/government/p...
Spending Review 2025 (HTML)
www.gov.uk
Reposted by Ronan Mainprize