banner
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik
@rorchinik.bsky.social
170 followers 92 following 32 posts
PhD student at MIT I use computational and experimental methods to understand beliefs, particularly as they relate to issues like misinformation and climate change.
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
Reposted by Reed Orchinik
caulfieldtim.bsky.social
Timothy Caulfield @caulfieldtim.bsky.social · Aug 6
Normalizing lies...👇

Repeated exposure effect on moral condemnation of fake news www.nature.com/articles/s41... @dgrand.bsky.social

"...frequently seen headlines receive lower moral condemnation"

"Without this condemnation, the publication & spreading of online misinformation may be more common."
2 19 43
Reposted by Reed Orchinik
dgrand.bsky.social
David Rand @dgrand.bsky.social · Apr 18
🚨New WP🚨
Using GPT4 to persuade participants significantly reduces climate skepticism and inaction
-Sig more effective than consensus messaging
-Works for Republicans
-Evidence of persistence @ 1mo
-Scalable!
PDF: osf.io/preprints/ps...
Try the bot: www.debunkbot.com/climate-change
Here’s how 👇
8 42 120
Reposted by Reed Orchinik
davmicrot.bsky.social
David Rothschild @davmicrot.bsky.social · Apr 16
Do you have strong programming skills but need research experience doing meaningful & exciting CSS projects before head off to a top graduate school for a computational social science PhD? Apply now to predoc www.microsoft.com/en-us/resear... with me, @dggoldst.bsky.social & @jakehofman.bsky.social
Predoctoral Research Assistant (Contract) – Computational Social Science - Microsoft Research
Are you a recent college graduate wishing to gain research experience prior to pursuing a Ph.D. in fields related to computational social science (CSS)? Do you have a deep love of “playing with data”—...
www.microsoft.com
6 7
Reposted by Reed Orchinik
brendannyhan.bsky.social
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · Feb 24
New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/accelerated-...

-Expert ratings of US democracy at post-2016 low
-55% of Trump-aligned Rs approve of "strong leader who does not have to bother w/Congress"
-Jan 6 pardons, exec branch firings, Musk influence rated as grave threats

🧵 of results below
17 130 250
Reposted by Reed Orchinik
geowu.bsky.social
George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · Feb 7
A new working paper with Daniel Banki, @urisohn.bsky.social and Robert Walatka, just submitted to SSRN.

The paper is comment on Ryan Oprea's recent AER paper.

The paper is processing, but you, my friends, get early entry.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Title Authors Abstract (Decision under Risk are Decisions Under Complexity: Comment)
2 32 110
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 3
Here it is: osf.io/preprints/ps.... Thanks for reading
OSF
osf.io
1
Reposted by Reed Orchinik
sweiwang.bsky.social
Stephanie Wang @sweiwang.bsky.social · Feb 1
CamererFest got off to a great start with a thrilling poster session from generations of @cfcamerer.bsky.social academic descendants #cfcfc 1/10
1 6 38
Reposted by Reed Orchinik
sweiwang.bsky.social
Stephanie Wang @sweiwang.bsky.social · Feb 1
@rorchinik.bsky.social fit three fascinating papers on adaptation to environments with varying levels of misinformation on one poster. If the QR codes don't work, go to his website: www.reedorchinik.com/research @rbhui.bsky.social @dgrand.bsky.social @cameronmartel.bsky.social #cfcfc 4/10
1 3 9
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 2
Thanks so much! I really appreciate it. I'll follow up over email
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 2
Thanks, Olivier! Looking forward to any further feedback & thanks for the papers.

I really like the clickbait paper - will definitely engage with it in our paper! The 2nd was 1 of the papers that got me to start thinking about Bayesian explanations. I’ve really appreciated your work in the area.
1 1
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
@dgrand.bsky.social @rbhui.bsky.social
2
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
Thanks for reading! Comments very much welcome.

As always, huge thanks to my awesome coauthors and advisors @DG_Rand & @RaBhui

Link to paper: osf.io/preprints/ps...
14/14
OSF
osf.io
1 3
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
So what? Ppl’s beliefs may not be as fallible as we think. Ppl efficiently use info & can limit the harm of “biases” to avoid falling for misinfo, propaganda, & political persuasion (see thread).

Another thread from the old site: x.com/ROrchinik/st... 13/
x.com
x.com
1 2
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
The illusory truth effect appears to be an adaptation to high-quality info sources. With a high-quality source, the standard illusory truth effect appears. With a low-quality source, people learn to interpret repetition in different ways. 12/
1 2
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
We also find evidence that the illusory truth effect is stronger for implausible headlines. Rather than being a bias that prevents the processing of other info, repetition appears to form a prior (towards truth) that is integrated with what people know about the item. 11/
1 3
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
Second, intuitive participants (measured by CRT) show a much stronger illusory truth effect in the high-quality condition. However, they show almost minimal effects of rep in low-quality. Deliberative participants show small illusory truth in both. 10/
1 3
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
Are intuitions adapting? We think yes. First, response times are much faster for repeated headlines, a hallmark of processing fluency. But, the effect of rep on RTs is identical by condition. Repetition/fluency is intuitively interpreted even in the low-quality condition. 9/
1 3
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
But how do we adapt? In prior work, intuitions adapt to sources allowing for quick approx. Bayesian inference. Here, we argue that repetition is processed intuitively, both in the standard illusory truth effect and its reinterpretation in low-quality. Thread from old site:
x.com/DG_Rand/stat... 8/
x.com
x.com
1 3
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
While there is a diff by condition, the avg is + in low-quality. But, when we look at ind-level effects, most ppl in low-quality show NO illusory truth. We find frequent use of a new strategy in low-quality: decrease belief in repeated items. As ppl learn, they begin to adapt. 7/
1 3
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
Is the effect of repetition moderated by source credibility? YES!

The effect of repetition is about ¼ the size in the low-quality condition. This moderation occurs for true and false items. 6/
1 4
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
To test this prediction, ppl see 3 True & 3 False headlines repeated in 3 exposure phases + 1 judgment phase. Ppl randomized to a high-quality condition see many novel headlines that are largely true. Those in low-quality see mostly false. Feed quality -> source credibility. 5/
1 2
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
The model unifies 4 findings in the lit: a) baseline illusory truth, b) each additional repetition has a smaller effect on beliefs, c) repetition effects are larger for implausible items, d) novel items are believed less when repetition is common. More explanation in fig 4/
1 4
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
Our model captures the informational value of repetition: When a source repeats a piece of info, it is less likely to have been sent by mistake. When the source is credible, repetition signals this info is more likely to be true. 3/
1 3
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
Despite what it feels like, ppl consume mostly true info from credible sources (fig from @jennyallen.bsky.social ). Sources are usually good but sometimes err – friends lie, credible news sources retract.

In a formal model, we investigate what this implies for repeated info. 2/
1 3
rorchinik.bsky.social
Reed Orchinik @rorchinik.bsky.social · Feb 1
New WP!
The illusory truth effect (repetition -> belief) is core to psych of beliefs, & thought to be a deep bias impacting misinfo, persuasion & advertising

Why would cognition include such a flaw? We argue it is a rational adaptation to high-quality info environments 🧵1/
4 30 74