For the @htTweets data & political economy team, elections aren't about predicting winners & losers. They are an opportunity to learn & unlearn how we understand our polity & society. This is what makes them great fun. Full story here on HT app n/n

www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi...

What has all of this got to do with AAP's landslide victories in 2015 and 2020? AAP's entry put an end to what was very large political fragmentation (vote share of candidates from No. 3 onwards) in outer ACs. 7/n

This is where we bring in the class factor.
How do we know whether outer ACs (with more migrants) are poorer than the core? Fortunately, Delhi gives ration-card data at the AC level. Higher NFSA beneficiaries per voter in outer ACs 6/n

Which also means outer ACs have seen a larger growth in the number of electors. Once again, the data is clear. Can't make a pre-2008 comparison because of delimitation 5/n

This has a direct bearing on electoral politics. ACs in the city's outer circumference have seen a larger growth in settled area in the last four decades 4/n

An analysis of satellite data shows that most of the increase in settled area has happened in the city's periphery; the core was already settled 3/n

Despite a similar natural growth of population, Delhi has had a higher growth in number of voters than rest of the country in most elections. This means a large number of voters are migrants who eventually settled here 2/n

And it’s not just inequality but growth too, which has fallen continuously in the last few decades. Trump should focus on this than the othering game n/n

US’s real problem is the collapse of income growth in the lower half of the population, which is what has hurt the white working class the most 4/n

But that’s largely their educational premium in the US job market 3/n

Naturalized citizens especially Asians have much higher incomes the average white American 2/n

One can look at it as a sign of the party’s alienation from the poor peasantry in the state in the post-reform period. The rich peasantry diversified outside agriculture & consolidated behind the NCP. Key lesson? The Congress must rethink class n/n

But it’s humiliating loss this time is a result of a complete collapse in Vidarbha-Marathwada region, the poorest & most rural in the state. This part of the state stood with the Congress even post-Emergency4/n

Congress’s marginalisation in Maharashtra is a process which started since 1990 3/n

Maharashtra is the 17th legislative assembly in India where the congress has less than 10% MLAs (the minimum you need to even claim an LoP). It’s national footprint in assemblies has been falling continuously 2/n