Beau
@runningsignal.com
Backyard economist. Macro/micro coverage of the economy, trade, and technology.
Opinions here don't get etched in stone.
Opinions here don't get etched in stone.
The cutest part about this wishful little post is it came out at 11:11
January 13, 2026 at 1:09 AM
The cutest part about this wishful little post is it came out at 11:11
I regret to inform you the freight recession is not going away easily.
These are inbound TEU orders into the U.S.
These are inbound TEU orders into the U.S.
January 12, 2026 at 2:38 PM
I regret to inform you the freight recession is not going away easily.
These are inbound TEU orders into the U.S.
These are inbound TEU orders into the U.S.
The first night had a few wake-ups every 3-4 hours, but otherwise a very chill little man.
You forget how adorable they are when little and completely led by play.
You forget how adorable they are when little and completely led by play.
January 11, 2026 at 12:50 PM
The first night had a few wake-ups every 3-4 hours, but otherwise a very chill little man.
You forget how adorable they are when little and completely led by play.
You forget how adorable they are when little and completely led by play.
Everyone, meet Tadpole.
January 11, 2026 at 12:25 AM
Everyone, meet Tadpole.
A majority disprove but this is another interesting one.
Not so overwhelming support anymore.
Not so overwhelming support anymore.
January 10, 2026 at 2:43 AM
A majority disprove but this is another interesting one.
Not so overwhelming support anymore.
Not so overwhelming support anymore.
I ask if this is not an insult to the majority of brave law enforcement and military personnel?
They train. They are professionals that develop situational awareness. They show tremendous restraint under duress. That’s honorable. Few can do it.
Sloppy disregard is a mockery. Finger gun warriors.
They train. They are professionals that develop situational awareness. They show tremendous restraint under duress. That’s honorable. Few can do it.
Sloppy disregard is a mockery. Finger gun warriors.
January 9, 2026 at 1:02 AM
I ask if this is not an insult to the majority of brave law enforcement and military personnel?
They train. They are professionals that develop situational awareness. They show tremendous restraint under duress. That’s honorable. Few can do it.
Sloppy disregard is a mockery. Finger gun warriors.
They train. They are professionals that develop situational awareness. They show tremendous restraint under duress. That’s honorable. Few can do it.
Sloppy disregard is a mockery. Finger gun warriors.
Beautiful. I was going mad watching the trade and GDP data.
If you strip out the pandemic, 2025 had the biggest 2-quarter decline in YoY imports since the GFC.
Q1 was +15%
Q3 was -3%
Net -18%
When you add industrial production you can see it was unanchored clearly from the economy.
If you strip out the pandemic, 2025 had the biggest 2-quarter decline in YoY imports since the GFC.
Q1 was +15%
Q3 was -3%
Net -18%
When you add industrial production you can see it was unanchored clearly from the economy.
January 8, 2026 at 7:40 PM
Beautiful. I was going mad watching the trade and GDP data.
If you strip out the pandemic, 2025 had the biggest 2-quarter decline in YoY imports since the GFC.
Q1 was +15%
Q3 was -3%
Net -18%
When you add industrial production you can see it was unanchored clearly from the economy.
If you strip out the pandemic, 2025 had the biggest 2-quarter decline in YoY imports since the GFC.
Q1 was +15%
Q3 was -3%
Net -18%
When you add industrial production you can see it was unanchored clearly from the economy.
Just various versions of O'Doyle
January 8, 2026 at 7:19 PM
Just various versions of O'Doyle
There's a case for me where some regressions could bring tailwinds ahead. Esp if tariffs struck. Small biz hires the most people and most adversely impacted by them.
Just say this from Glassdoor too. You don't hire directors if business is going to tank but budget means +1 Sr = -2 Jr
Just say this from Glassdoor too. You don't hire directors if business is going to tank but budget means +1 Sr = -2 Jr
January 8, 2026 at 5:07 PM
There's a case for me where some regressions could bring tailwinds ahead. Esp if tariffs struck. Small biz hires the most people and most adversely impacted by them.
Just say this from Glassdoor too. You don't hire directors if business is going to tank but budget means +1 Sr = -2 Jr
Just say this from Glassdoor too. You don't hire directors if business is going to tank but budget means +1 Sr = -2 Jr
I see this Director level hiring change as being meaningful heading into 2026.
In direct contrast to mid and entry which I'd think have more lag.
Probably some budgetary component to think of in your mix here but you hire Sr level when you prepare for growth IMO.
In direct contrast to mid and entry which I'd think have more lag.
Probably some budgetary component to think of in your mix here but you hire Sr level when you prepare for growth IMO.
January 8, 2026 at 5:02 PM
I see this Director level hiring change as being meaningful heading into 2026.
In direct contrast to mid and entry which I'd think have more lag.
Probably some budgetary component to think of in your mix here but you hire Sr level when you prepare for growth IMO.
In direct contrast to mid and entry which I'd think have more lag.
Probably some budgetary component to think of in your mix here but you hire Sr level when you prepare for growth IMO.
1. He's already drawing as the car shifts into drive after backing up.
2. The officer fires as the car is turning away from him to escape. Already clear.
3. Shoots more as it is clearly not heading towards him.
4. The car careens away following the path intended by driver. Not into agents.
2. The officer fires as the car is turning away from him to escape. Already clear.
3. Shoots more as it is clearly not heading towards him.
4. The car careens away following the path intended by driver. Not into agents.
January 7, 2026 at 8:09 PM
1. He's already drawing as the car shifts into drive after backing up.
2. The officer fires as the car is turning away from him to escape. Already clear.
3. Shoots more as it is clearly not heading towards him.
4. The car careens away following the path intended by driver. Not into agents.
2. The officer fires as the car is turning away from him to escape. Already clear.
3. Shoots more as it is clearly not heading towards him.
4. The car careens away following the path intended by driver. Not into agents.
In the pandemic we called them "essential workers"
January 7, 2026 at 6:22 PM
In the pandemic we called them "essential workers"
We're a beat.
Many others fail to learn their lesson on playing seasonality.
I'd watch earnings on this front. Which also means more pricing power coming to spot rates IMO.
We're not seeing any breakout in Q1 though.
Many others fail to learn their lesson on playing seasonality.
I'd watch earnings on this front. Which also means more pricing power coming to spot rates IMO.
We're not seeing any breakout in Q1 though.
January 6, 2026 at 7:54 PM
We're a beat.
Many others fail to learn their lesson on playing seasonality.
I'd watch earnings on this front. Which also means more pricing power coming to spot rates IMO.
We're not seeing any breakout in Q1 though.
Many others fail to learn their lesson on playing seasonality.
I'd watch earnings on this front. Which also means more pricing power coming to spot rates IMO.
We're not seeing any breakout in Q1 though.
So we're personifying a chatbot that has no accountability because it isn't real. But it can apologize so let bygones be bygones.
January 5, 2026 at 9:12 PM
So we're personifying a chatbot that has no accountability because it isn't real. But it can apologize so let bygones be bygones.
Saw this IEA projection of energy supply mix into 2050.
I tried to stress test with more optimistic outlooks based on each non-fossil fuel source's potential runway.
Nuclear and Hydro aren't doing much due to space and buildout but reducing from 60% to 35% fossil fuels would be big.
I tried to stress test with more optimistic outlooks based on each non-fossil fuel source's potential runway.
Nuclear and Hydro aren't doing much due to space and buildout but reducing from 60% to 35% fossil fuels would be big.
January 5, 2026 at 9:06 PM
Saw this IEA projection of energy supply mix into 2050.
I tried to stress test with more optimistic outlooks based on each non-fossil fuel source's potential runway.
Nuclear and Hydro aren't doing much due to space and buildout but reducing from 60% to 35% fossil fuels would be big.
I tried to stress test with more optimistic outlooks based on each non-fossil fuel source's potential runway.
Nuclear and Hydro aren't doing much due to space and buildout but reducing from 60% to 35% fossil fuels would be big.
A lot of yikes here to end the year in the PMI commentary but this is a new one in large data center buildouts pushing up prices and curbing availability of resources for other sectors.
January 5, 2026 at 7:22 PM
A lot of yikes here to end the year in the PMI commentary but this is a new one in large data center buildouts pushing up prices and curbing availability of resources for other sectors.
The S&P Flash PMI from Friday shows the precipice we're on. Outlooks have remained positive. Hiring has ensued. Input and output costs are growing - less fast - than the Summer.
However, if things don't materialize in Q1 where demand can catch the momentum, we're right off a cliff as Chris writes.
However, if things don't materialize in Q1 where demand can catch the momentum, we're right off a cliff as Chris writes.
January 5, 2026 at 5:35 PM
The S&P Flash PMI from Friday shows the precipice we're on. Outlooks have remained positive. Hiring has ensued. Input and output costs are growing - less fast - than the Summer.
However, if things don't materialize in Q1 where demand can catch the momentum, we're right off a cliff as Chris writes.
However, if things don't materialize in Q1 where demand can catch the momentum, we're right off a cliff as Chris writes.
The intransigent minority.
January 5, 2026 at 5:27 PM
The intransigent minority.
So you get one end that believes if you just keep tugging at the nose, "more boats will rise". It just does nothing for most everyone else getting compacted near the bottom.
Those understanding some share will always have difficulty bring ideas like UBI but those get hit by slippery slopes.
Those understanding some share will always have difficulty bring ideas like UBI but those get hit by slippery slopes.
January 5, 2026 at 4:31 PM
So you get one end that believes if you just keep tugging at the nose, "more boats will rise". It just does nothing for most everyone else getting compacted near the bottom.
Those understanding some share will always have difficulty bring ideas like UBI but those get hit by slippery slopes.
Those understanding some share will always have difficulty bring ideas like UBI but those get hit by slippery slopes.
Capitalism has allowed more people than ever in history to rise out of poverty. The U.S. has benefitted greatly and when people have time to think and do what they like you get a more dynamic economy.
Yet there will always be those unable to do so. The more we're able meet, the more productive.
Yet there will always be those unable to do so. The more we're able meet, the more productive.
January 5, 2026 at 4:15 PM
Capitalism has allowed more people than ever in history to rise out of poverty. The U.S. has benefitted greatly and when people have time to think and do what they like you get a more dynamic economy.
Yet there will always be those unable to do so. The more we're able meet, the more productive.
Yet there will always be those unable to do so. The more we're able meet, the more productive.