Beau
@runningsignal.com
Backyard economist. Macro/micro coverage of the economy, trade, and technology.
Opinions here don't get etched in stone.
Opinions here don't get etched in stone.
I say Pih-Kahn, not Pee-Can Pie. My dad's from TX, so that now checks.
November 26, 2025 at 1:25 AM
I say Pih-Kahn, not Pee-Can Pie. My dad's from TX, so that now checks.
We know what a poverty line isn't, but we also don't make good sense having a dichotomous view.
I take Maslow's hierarchy and try to make a base basket to meet those needs. This is prior to the mushy feeling stuff.
You can't function in society at $7.25/hr. Adult, Single Parent, and 2 kid family
I take Maslow's hierarchy and try to make a base basket to meet those needs. This is prior to the mushy feeling stuff.
You can't function in society at $7.25/hr. Adult, Single Parent, and 2 kid family
November 26, 2025 at 12:39 AM
We know what a poverty line isn't, but we also don't make good sense having a dichotomous view.
I take Maslow's hierarchy and try to make a base basket to meet those needs. This is prior to the mushy feeling stuff.
You can't function in society at $7.25/hr. Adult, Single Parent, and 2 kid family
I take Maslow's hierarchy and try to make a base basket to meet those needs. This is prior to the mushy feeling stuff.
You can't function in society at $7.25/hr. Adult, Single Parent, and 2 kid family
Reposted by Beau
bet a good chunk of that was from fertilizers and shipping rates
November 25, 2025 at 6:03 PM
bet a good chunk of that was from fertilizers and shipping rates
National Restaurant Association shows prices jumped over 1% m/m from August and were 4.2% higher than September '24.
You can see how the stars aligned for the breakfast index though.
restaurant.org/research-and...
You can see how the stars aligned for the breakfast index though.
restaurant.org/research-and...
November 25, 2025 at 5:58 PM
National Restaurant Association shows prices jumped over 1% m/m from August and were 4.2% higher than September '24.
You can see how the stars aligned for the breakfast index though.
restaurant.org/research-and...
You can see how the stars aligned for the breakfast index though.
restaurant.org/research-and...
Was team transitory wrong about what would happen to the price level or more about how we'd get there?
You could argue this was only due to intervention. If left alone we'd have been on escape velocity, but then you'd need to amplify FED credibility in taming trajectories.
You could argue this was only due to intervention. If left alone we'd have been on escape velocity, but then you'd need to amplify FED credibility in taming trajectories.
November 25, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Was team transitory wrong about what would happen to the price level or more about how we'd get there?
You could argue this was only due to intervention. If left alone we'd have been on escape velocity, but then you'd need to amplify FED credibility in taming trajectories.
You could argue this was only due to intervention. If left alone we'd have been on escape velocity, but then you'd need to amplify FED credibility in taming trajectories.
From Scott Brave at the Fed Bank of Chicago
Retail & food ex autos are doing..... ok? Less bashed by inflationary pressures.
Retail & food ex autos are doing..... ok? Less bashed by inflationary pressures.
November 25, 2025 at 5:41 PM
From Scott Brave at the Fed Bank of Chicago
Retail & food ex autos are doing..... ok? Less bashed by inflationary pressures.
Retail & food ex autos are doing..... ok? Less bashed by inflationary pressures.
Reposted by Beau
We don't built apartments for families.
Look at the distribution of units built in Bellevue, Washington. In buildings since 2010 with more than 20 units ... over 70% of new units are Studio or 1BRs, and less than 2% have 3+ bedrooms
Look at the distribution of units built in Bellevue, Washington. In buildings since 2010 with more than 20 units ... over 70% of new units are Studio or 1BRs, and less than 2% have 3+ bedrooms
November 25, 2025 at 5:32 PM
We don't built apartments for families.
Look at the distribution of units built in Bellevue, Washington. In buildings since 2010 with more than 20 units ... over 70% of new units are Studio or 1BRs, and less than 2% have 3+ bedrooms
Look at the distribution of units built in Bellevue, Washington. In buildings since 2010 with more than 20 units ... over 70% of new units are Studio or 1BRs, and less than 2% have 3+ bedrooms
It would make a lot of sense if he’s never made himself in the mirror.
November 25, 2025 at 2:11 PM
It would make a lot of sense if he’s never made himself in the mirror.
Reposted by Beau
Tough time to be making cabinets. (note price chart does not include today's earnings reaction)
*AMERICAN WOODMARK 2Q ADJ EPS 76C, EST. $1.22
*AMERICAN WOODMARK 2Q ADJ EPS 76C, EST. $1.22
"Demand trends remain challenged in both the new construction and remodel markets."
*AMERICAN WOODMARK 2Q ADJ EPS 76C, EST. $1.22
*AMERICAN WOODMARK 2Q ADJ EPS 76C, EST. $1.22
"Demand trends remain challenged in both the new construction and remodel markets."
November 25, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Tough time to be making cabinets. (note price chart does not include today's earnings reaction)
*AMERICAN WOODMARK 2Q ADJ EPS 76C, EST. $1.22
*AMERICAN WOODMARK 2Q ADJ EPS 76C, EST. $1.22
"Demand trends remain challenged in both the new construction and remodel markets."
*AMERICAN WOODMARK 2Q ADJ EPS 76C, EST. $1.22
*AMERICAN WOODMARK 2Q ADJ EPS 76C, EST. $1.22
"Demand trends remain challenged in both the new construction and remodel markets."
Trailer cancellations were a little more subdued in October. A welcome sign. KPMG's Meagan Schoenberger explains trailer sales as a leading indicator on @marketplace.org.
We'll see if we get momentum for '26 orders by Q2.
Segment's here: www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
From the ACT
We'll see if we get momentum for '26 orders by Q2.
Segment's here: www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
From the ACT
November 25, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Trailer cancellations were a little more subdued in October. A welcome sign. KPMG's Meagan Schoenberger explains trailer sales as a leading indicator on @marketplace.org.
We'll see if we get momentum for '26 orders by Q2.
Segment's here: www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
From the ACT
We'll see if we get momentum for '26 orders by Q2.
Segment's here: www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
From the ACT
Please be safe, give extra time to travel. Plan your routes.
The travel forecast calls for wintry weather across much of the northern U.S. and a record number of Americans hitting the road over the holiday week.
Thanksgiving Travelers Face Colder Temperatures, Record Traffic, Busy Airports—Here’s What To Know
The travel forecast calls for wintry weather across much of the northern U.S. and a record number of Americans hitting the road over the holiday week.
www.forbes.com
November 25, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Please be safe, give extra time to travel. Plan your routes.
We've got some good Thanksgiving holiday action. We're hitting seasonal trends with zeal on volume and rejection fronts.
November 25, 2025 at 12:14 PM
We've got some good Thanksgiving holiday action. We're hitting seasonal trends with zeal on volume and rejection fronts.
Reposted by Beau
Wheel of Fortune is sponsored by DraftKings this week. Society is over.
November 25, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Wheel of Fortune is sponsored by DraftKings this week. Society is over.
Awful all around. Our ER staff are already maxed too. Rural hospital closures.
They won't just stop needing care.
They won't just stop needing care.
Here it comes: the crisis wave of Americans making the tough choice to drop coverage — in the face or rising premiums.
@reuters.com $XLV
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
@reuters.com $XLV
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
November 25, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Awful all around. Our ER staff are already maxed too. Rural hospital closures.
They won't just stop needing care.
They won't just stop needing care.
The idea is to stop investing in renewable energy and instead pump it into the war machine to get more oil we can then sell under breakevens.
November 24, 2025 at 11:22 PM
The idea is to stop investing in renewable energy and instead pump it into the war machine to get more oil we can then sell under breakevens.
Reposted by Beau
"what if 2003, but for the *actual* reasons conspiracy theorists thought we went in 2003 for?"
Rep. Salazar on Venezuela: "We're about to go in ... we need to go in ... Venezuela for the American oil companies will be a field day"
November 24, 2025 at 9:36 PM
"what if 2003, but for the *actual* reasons conspiracy theorists thought we went in 2003 for?"
Reposted by Beau
I thought this was fairly well established, but: here's another new study showing that wind and solar complement each other and make for a more stable grid when combined.
Intermittent solar and wind complement each other for a more stable grid
A study finds combining wind and solar leverages their alternating peak periods, significantly boosting total generation capacity while providing a constant, predictable power curve critical for grid ...
pv-magazine-usa.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:53 PM
I thought this was fairly well established, but: here's another new study showing that wind and solar complement each other and make for a more stable grid when combined.
Reposted by Beau
CNN: Breaking news… this is big, we have learned that the justice department's case against former FBI director Jim Comey and the New York attorney general have both been dismissed
November 24, 2025 at 5:48 PM
CNN: Breaking news… this is big, we have learned that the justice department's case against former FBI director Jim Comey and the New York attorney general have both been dismissed
My 4yo also yells poop-poopy-poop at the google hub in our house to get a reaction but I don't think he's making it to the cellar yet either.
Everything about this might be the saddest thing I’ve ever seen
November 24, 2025 at 4:13 PM
My 4yo also yells poop-poopy-poop at the google hub in our house to get a reaction but I don't think he's making it to the cellar yet either.
Now you know why Noah Smith thinks he has so many fans.
November 24, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Now you know why Noah Smith thinks he has so many fans.
Reposted by Beau
Neat
Some years ago the Washington POST printed my recipe for Chinese sticky rice stuffing. This is the Asian contribution to T-Day. Turkey is rather bland for Chinese tastes, but sticky rice stuffing makes it all better! www.washingtonpost.com/recipes/chin...
Chinese Sticky Rice Stuffing
“Turkey has never been a favorite in Asian cooking,” writes Reston resident Brenda Clough.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 24, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Neat
What is so damn annoying is the whining about climate change while boarding up the doors over mass migrations …because of climate change.
These folks don’t deny it. They just want to ensure the ladder is pulled up.
These folks don’t deny it. They just want to ensure the ladder is pulled up.
November 23, 2025 at 10:36 PM
What is so damn annoying is the whining about climate change while boarding up the doors over mass migrations …because of climate change.
These folks don’t deny it. They just want to ensure the ladder is pulled up.
These folks don’t deny it. They just want to ensure the ladder is pulled up.