Dario Perkins
@darioperkins.bsky.social
MD Global Macro, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan
Pinned
Dario Perkins
@darioperkins.bsky.social
· Nov 16
The 10 rules of central banking - after this I will never get invited to another BoE xmas party... hub.tslombard.com/download/PUB...
hub.tslombard.com
I've discovered how to pin this, just in case Trump drops by and needs some help taking on the most important job in the role (Fed chair)
Reposted by Dario Perkins
Large language models are statistical token-prediction systems, and despite AGI claims by Mark Zuckerberg, Dario Amodei (who said AGI "may come as soon as 2026"), and Sam Altman, neuroscience suggests language alone may not produce human-level intelligence.
Is language the same as intelligence? The AI industry desperately needs it to be
The AI boom is based on a fundamental mistake.
www.theverge.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Large language models are statistical token-prediction systems, and despite AGI claims by Mark Zuckerberg, Dario Amodei (who said AGI "may come as soon as 2026"), and Sam Altman, neuroscience suggests language alone may not produce human-level intelligence.
All these FOMC voices. It feels like Powell is actively diluting his own role, as Fed chair, in an attempt to thwart the capture of his successor. Is that now his legacy?
November 21, 2025 at 5:17 PM
All these FOMC voices. It feels like Powell is actively diluting his own role, as Fed chair, in an attempt to thwart the capture of his successor. Is that now his legacy?
The Fed is doing this all wrong. If it cuts 25bps in December, the AI boom will come back and then the Digital God will eventually tell it how to meet its 2% inflation target (as long as the answer was somehwere on Reddit in 2017). Morons
November 20, 2025 at 7:23 PM
The Fed is doing this all wrong. If it cuts 25bps in December, the AI boom will come back and then the Digital God will eventually tell it how to meet its 2% inflation target (as long as the answer was somehwere on Reddit in 2017). Morons
Reposted by Dario Perkins
Today’s jobs data: not great, not terrible, merely ho-hum substack.com/@macromostly...
Guy Berger (@macromostly)
Today’s labor market data: not great, not terrible, merely ho-hum
substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Today’s jobs data: not great, not terrible, merely ho-hum substack.com/@macromostly...
Right or wrong, the Fed now blames the weak labour market on supply. That has two big implications:
1) Employment wont spiral against it - so it can take its time
2) The jobs market wont become a source of disinflation - so why cut rates?
dont shoot the messenger
1) Employment wont spiral against it - so it can take its time
2) The jobs market wont become a source of disinflation - so why cut rates?
dont shoot the messenger
November 20, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Right or wrong, the Fed now blames the weak labour market on supply. That has two big implications:
1) Employment wont spiral against it - so it can take its time
2) The jobs market wont become a source of disinflation - so why cut rates?
dont shoot the messenger
1) Employment wont spiral against it - so it can take its time
2) The jobs market wont become a source of disinflation - so why cut rates?
dont shoot the messenger
Serious economists writing op-eds about who Trump *should* appoint to the Fed, and im here hoping he appoints some wacko, just for kicks 🍿
November 19, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Serious economists writing op-eds about who Trump *should* appoint to the Fed, and im here hoping he appoints some wacko, just for kicks 🍿
Did anyone listen to the Swati Dhingra speech yesterday? No text online - just slides. She appears to argue that UK household income is overstated...
November 19, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Did anyone listen to the Swati Dhingra speech yesterday? No text online - just slides. She appears to argue that UK household income is overstated...
Italy has only won one world cup knockout match since the first IPhone was released...
... is the level of analysis we are getting in most macro takes about ChatGPT
... is the level of analysis we are getting in most macro takes about ChatGPT
November 18, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Italy has only won one world cup knockout match since the first IPhone was released...
... is the level of analysis we are getting in most macro takes about ChatGPT
... is the level of analysis we are getting in most macro takes about ChatGPT
The bond vigilantes are supposed to keep governments honest. Maybe we need equity-market vigilantes to keep Big Tech honest, given all these crazy capex plans and circular deals
November 18, 2025 at 3:11 PM
The bond vigilantes are supposed to keep governments honest. Maybe we need equity-market vigilantes to keep Big Tech honest, given all these crazy capex plans and circular deals
Reposted by Dario Perkins
This deal looks exactly like what OpenAI has been doing just at smaller scale. $15bn in via equity, $30bn out via opex, NVDA keeping the ecosystem spinning, it's all here.
November 18, 2025 at 3:06 PM
This deal looks exactly like what OpenAI has been doing just at smaller scale. $15bn in via equity, $30bn out via opex, NVDA keeping the ecosystem spinning, it's all here.
Reposted by Dario Perkins
Here's a classic one. Anthropic is going to spend $30 billion on Azure.
And with the deal, both Microsoft and Nvidia are both investing in Anthropic
And with the deal, both Microsoft and Nvidia are both investing in Anthropic
November 18, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Here's a classic one. Anthropic is going to spend $30 billion on Azure.
And with the deal, both Microsoft and Nvidia are both investing in Anthropic
And with the deal, both Microsoft and Nvidia are both investing in Anthropic
what is the Goldilocks level of AI capex that keeps people bullish NVIDIA, without generating too much anxiety that Big Tech is investing too much.
oh shit, there isnt one 🤣
oh shit, there isnt one 🤣
November 18, 2025 at 2:49 PM
what is the Goldilocks level of AI capex that keeps people bullish NVIDIA, without generating too much anxiety that Big Tech is investing too much.
oh shit, there isnt one 🤣
oh shit, there isnt one 🤣
Reposted by Dario Perkins
PODCAST TIME.
1. Is Michael Burry right?
2. Will Trump's rebates cause inflation?
3. How should the Fed respond to tech-driven productivity (the Greenspan dilemma)?
Best bit- my rap soundtrack at the end.
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5eZi...
1. Is Michael Burry right?
2. Will Trump's rebates cause inflation?
3. How should the Fed respond to tech-driven productivity (the Greenspan dilemma)?
Best bit- my rap soundtrack at the end.
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5eZi...
The Big Short 2.0
Podcast Episode · GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish · 11/14/2025 · 46m
podcasts.apple.com
November 14, 2025 at 3:06 PM
PODCAST TIME.
1. Is Michael Burry right?
2. Will Trump's rebates cause inflation?
3. How should the Fed respond to tech-driven productivity (the Greenspan dilemma)?
Best bit- my rap soundtrack at the end.
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5eZi...
1. Is Michael Burry right?
2. Will Trump's rebates cause inflation?
3. How should the Fed respond to tech-driven productivity (the Greenspan dilemma)?
Best bit- my rap soundtrack at the end.
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5eZi...
Reposted by Dario Perkins
fixed it for you Rachel
November 14, 2025 at 3:40 PM
fixed it for you Rachel
Gordon Brown used to meet his fiscal rules by making the lines fatter on a chart. True story. Maybe Rachel should try that...
November 14, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Gordon Brown used to meet his fiscal rules by making the lines fatter on a chart. True story. Maybe Rachel should try that...
PODCAST TIME.
1. Is Michael Burry right?
2. Will Trump's rebates cause inflation?
3. How should the Fed respond to tech-driven productivity (the Greenspan dilemma)?
Best bit- my rap soundtrack at the end.
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5eZi...
1. Is Michael Burry right?
2. Will Trump's rebates cause inflation?
3. How should the Fed respond to tech-driven productivity (the Greenspan dilemma)?
Best bit- my rap soundtrack at the end.
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5eZi...
The Big Short 2.0
Podcast Episode · GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish · 11/14/2025 · 46m
podcasts.apple.com
November 14, 2025 at 3:06 PM
PODCAST TIME.
1. Is Michael Burry right?
2. Will Trump's rebates cause inflation?
3. How should the Fed respond to tech-driven productivity (the Greenspan dilemma)?
Best bit- my rap soundtrack at the end.
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5eZi...
1. Is Michael Burry right?
2. Will Trump's rebates cause inflation?
3. How should the Fed respond to tech-driven productivity (the Greenspan dilemma)?
Best bit- my rap soundtrack at the end.
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5eZi...
The govts big problem is that the UK did austerity at totally the wrong time, when the banks wouldn't lend, the private sector was deleveraging and rates were zero. And now austerity is toxic, even if there is scope to cut rates and relever the private sector today.
Few....
Few....
November 14, 2025 at 9:23 AM
The govts big problem is that the UK did austerity at totally the wrong time, when the banks wouldn't lend, the private sector was deleveraging and rates were zero. And now austerity is toxic, even if there is scope to cut rates and relever the private sector today.
Few....
Few....
Oh Rachel. Planning spending cuts and then cancelling them. Planning tax increases and then cancelling them. Now you are in a worse position than if you had just done nothing and said nothing
November 14, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Oh Rachel. Planning spending cuts and then cancelling them. Planning tax increases and then cancelling them. Now you are in a worse position than if you had just done nothing and said nothing
Noah Smith.. offended by anti-US jokes at Kilkenomics.. I mean EVEN BY HIS RECENT STANDARDS that is a new low
November 14, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Noah Smith.. offended by anti-US jokes at Kilkenomics.. I mean EVEN BY HIS RECENT STANDARDS that is a new low
Reposted by Dario Perkins
Scott Bessent diss track www.producer.ai/song/b8e8dab...
No Principles (Boom Bap Remix) by DarioPerkins
boom bap, old school hip hop
www.producer.ai
November 10, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Scott Bessent diss track www.producer.ai/song/b8e8dab...
Scott Bessent diss track www.producer.ai/song/b8e8dab...
No Principles (Boom Bap Remix) by DarioPerkins
boom bap, old school hip hop
www.producer.ai
November 10, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Scott Bessent diss track www.producer.ai/song/b8e8dab...
I....cant... anymore.....😭
take the change in job openings by industry. Plot it against the change in employment by industry. The sectors with the biggest REDUCTIONS in job openings also saw the largest INCREASES in employment.
US, France, UK all the same story
ChatGPT my ass
take the change in job openings by industry. Plot it against the change in employment by industry. The sectors with the biggest REDUCTIONS in job openings also saw the largest INCREASES in employment.
US, France, UK all the same story
ChatGPT my ass
November 5, 2025 at 3:51 PM
I....cant... anymore.....😭
take the change in job openings by industry. Plot it against the change in employment by industry. The sectors with the biggest REDUCTIONS in job openings also saw the largest INCREASES in employment.
US, France, UK all the same story
ChatGPT my ass
take the change in job openings by industry. Plot it against the change in employment by industry. The sectors with the biggest REDUCTIONS in job openings also saw the largest INCREASES in employment.
US, France, UK all the same story
ChatGPT my ass