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Dario Perkins

@darioperkins.bsky.social

7.6K followers 560 following 1.1K posts

MD Global Macro, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan

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Pinned

Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · Nov 16

I've discovered how to pin this, just in case Trump drops by and needs some help taking on the most important job in the role (Fed chair)

Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · Nov 1

The 10 rules of central banking - after this I will never get invited to another BoE xmas party... hub.tslombard.com/download/PUB...

hub.tslombard.com

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Reposted by Dario Perkins

Tri Cap @triforcecap.bsky.social · 5d

Near the end of this @darioperkins.bsky.social frames out the pressures on the Fed in the late ‘60s that look similar to present day. I think you can also hear some recognition of this in Fed speeches this week.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...

Reaccelerating into an Inflation Crisis?

Podcast Episode · GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish · 10/02/2025 · 42m

podcasts.apple.com

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 7d

Investors keep asking why the US economy is "behaving so bizarrely". Imagine a teacher turns up to school in a clown outfit, acts erratically all day, and keeps dishing out arbitrary rewards and expulsions. Would you ask why the kids are so distracted?

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Reposted by Dario Perkins

Marcelo Rinesi @marcelorinesi.bsky.social · 7d

As the usual observation goes, dig only a little bit under every piece of BS in US society and you have better than even odds you'll find Regan...

by @darioperkins.bsky.social at hub.tslombard.com/chart-story/... via @adamtooze.bsky.social

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 15d

The UK is in a hole and this govt thinks it can fix it with a shovel

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 16d

Unhinged

Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 16d

Trump press conference

Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 16d

Wtf am I watching

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 21d

yeah thats what he meant by "risk management". Insurance against a specific risk - in this case the jobs market collapsing

Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 21d

FOMC members haven't agreed on much in recent months, but they all agree that Miran is wrong about where interest rates should be. He managed to unite them 🤣

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 21d

People seem confused by Jay Powell, but his message was a complicated one. Both demand and supply are deteriorating, which isnt *that* disinflationary, but there is a chance demand deteriorates FASTER than supply - esp. if the labour market cracks. That's what they are watching for

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 21d

Arsonists blaming the fire brigade for turning up late

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 21d

Yes, “too late Jerome” is basically a mea culpa isn’t it?

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 21d

The irony of *that* FOMC dot is that it will only be correct if the administration's policies have tanked the economy

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 21d

my thoughts exactly. He regretted choosing Powell within MONTHS. Surely he wont make that "mistake" again

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 21d

wishful thinking

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 26d

🤣

Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 26d

yeah.. until Trump 2.0

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Reposted by Dario Perkins

Danny Blanchflower @dannyblanchy.bsky.social · 27d

1967....

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 26d

oops sorry! I thought I had kept them the same 🤣

Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 27d

my view. Mix of 1995 and 67. Not as inflationary as 67, not as bullish as 95.

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 27d

equities:

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 27d

yields:

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 27d

this is what happened to inflation:

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 27d

here is what the Fed did:

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 27d

so here is the debate, is it:
- 1995. Fed cuts. soft landing & inflation is fine
- 1967. Fed cuts. Inflation reaccelerates.. fine for a while but then the economy overheats & we get a recession
- 2001. Fed cuts, but it is already too late & recession gains traction
🧵

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 27d

cpi is hot
the jobs market is about to stall
whoever invented these tariffs
is a bit of a fool

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