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Tri Cap

@triforcecap.bsky.social

130 followers 100 following 830 posts

Algo supervisor.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 2h

FWIW: "Applications for US unemployment benefits rose (to 235,000) last week, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysis of state-level filings released during the federal government shutdown."

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ken morrison @morrisonmkts.bsky.social · 3h

Gold: Futures-volume on Thursday's decline was the largest since April 2024

Tri Cap @triforcecap.bsky.social · 3h

This is both academically correct and terribly wrong.

FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 3h

WALLER SAYS TARIFF EFFECTS ON INFLATION ARE ONE TIME CHANGES IN THE PRICE LEVEL, AND CAN BE LOOKED THROUGH

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Reuters @reuters.com · 3h

US equity funds see outflows on profit booking, government shutdown uncertainties reut.rs/471vGfM

US equity funds see outflows on profit booking, government shutdown uncertainties

U.S. investors divested equity funds for the first time in three weeks in the week through October 8, as they favored to take out profits from the recent rally on caution over the rising risks surrounding an ongoing government shutdown.

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Paolo Bernardi @paolobernardi.bsky.social · 18h

Interesting. Record low share of US30Y Treasuries awarded to primary dealers. @bethstanton.bsky.social reports.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Primary Dealers Awarded Record Low Share of US 30-Year Auction

A record low share of Thursday’s monthly auction of 30-year Treasury bonds was awarded to major US bond dealers, deepening a two-decade slide.

www.bloomberg.com

Tri Cap @triforcecap.bsky.social · 19h

NV has recession vibe.

Tri Cap @triforcecap.bsky.social · 19h

Queen 👸🏾

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 1d

“When structural vol suppression meets idiosyncratic risk, correlations start to break down. The past several months have been one of the strongest examples of this dynamic on record.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/776 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

Tri Cap @triforcecap.bsky.social · 22h

Flows > fundamentals. #IMH

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 1d

‘Each worker in the US puts an estimated $2,300 into the Magnificent Seven stocks every year, regardless of whether their outlook is good or bad.‘
www.apolloacademy.com/the-dangers-...

The Dangers of Passive Investing - Apollo Academy

US workers contribute on average around $8,500 to their 401(k) accounts every year, and with 71% of 401(k) assets allocated...

www.apolloacademy.com

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Helene Meisler @hmeisler.bsky.social · 1d

AAII folks are not loaded up on gold. This surprises me.

Reposted by Tri Cap

ken morrison @morrisonmkts.bsky.social · 1d

Farmer's Expectations for a Bailout & Views about use of Tariffs (Purdue University survey taken mid-September)

Tri Cap @triforcecap.bsky.social · 1d

I’m young X daily user with subs to Chat and Claude because I go over limit some days. Would not pay $100 a month for either.

The part about Z skills I agree and it surprised me. I thought there would be continuing skill advancement and that didn’t happen at all.

Tri Cap @triforcecap.bsky.social · 1d

Yeah, closing is the hard part. I did not expect this euphoric media so soon. The AUM industry giving up their refusal to allocate is earlier than I guessed. From my readings, gold started to not be impacted by geopol events late in the 70s and that seems to have been a tell in hindsight…

Tri Cap @triforcecap.bsky.social · 1d

Can’t be 08, private sector isn’t levered enough. Not 29 because Fed is easing rn, and may go full monpol stim in ‘26. Potentially 2001 or a series of ’87s across a few years. Or yeah, a secret thing that humans can’t foresee.

Tri Cap @triforcecap.bsky.social · 1d

I think it’s this decade, 26-28 I’d guess rn. (but I’ve been in since 22 and have a longer speculative horizon than most. )

Tri Cap @triforcecap.bsky.social · 1d

✅ USD weaponized, PBOC reacts
✅ CN lifers enter gold market.
✅ Asia hedges USD asset flow
✅ AUM herd bolts into market
❌ Treasury/Fed accord broken
❌ RoW hedges USD asset stock

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Nicholas Weaver @ncweaver.skerry-tech.com · 2d

An additional complication: Fundamentally these systems will always be wrong a non-zero percentage of the time. Going smaller, shrinking the model to run on the end-user device, only increases the error slightly but greatly reduces the cost: eliminating the need for the datacenter to run it.

Tri Cap @triforcecap.bsky.social · 2d

One of two accounts I really miss from the old place. Good to hear his thoughts on market structure and flows. Smart interviewer too. Highly recommend.

Dow @dow.bsky.social · 2d

Fresh interview. ICYMI
x.com/timgraf/stat...

Timothy Graf on X: "ICYMI, last week’s pod with @mark_dow was #gold...which was one of, like, 85 topics we covered in this tour de force. It also broke every download record we have, so you know it’s good. Thanks for that, Mark. @BehavioralMacro" / X

ICYMI, last week’s pod with @mark_dow was #gold...which was one of, like, 85 topics we covered in this tour de force. It also broke every download record we have, so you know it’s good. Thanks for that, Mark. @BehavioralMacro

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ttmarket.bsky.social @ttmarket.bsky.social · 4d

Apollo Chief Economist just showed the second wave of inflation is emerging with 60% of items in the CPI basket growing faster than 3%.

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ken morrison @morrisonmkts.bsky.social · 6d

As it currently stands, this is what healthcare costs in Rural America is likely to resemble in 2026 vs. 2024.

Tri Cap @triforcecap.bsky.social · 7d

Near the end of this @darioperkins.bsky.social frames out the pressures on the Fed in the late ‘60s that look similar to present day. I think you can also hear some recognition of this in Fed speeches this week.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...

Reaccelerating into an Inflation Crisis?

Podcast Episode · GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish · 10/02/2025 · 42m

podcasts.apple.com

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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 7d

Inspired by the work done by the geniuses at the BIS in the past, here's a network map of global currency markets in 2025, illustrating the dominance of the four major trading hubs:

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Ann Monster Lipton @annmlipton.bsky.social · 7d

oh so judges recuse themselves based on their wives' political activities now. interesting

Josh Gerstein @joshgerstein.bsky.social · 7d

BREAKING: At Trump DOJ request, Judge Michael Simon (Obama) recuses from Oregon's suit over activation of its National Guard for immigration enforcement/ICE security. New Judge Karin Immergut (Trump). DOJ argued comments by Simon's wife @RepBonamici about case merited recusal.

Tri Cap @triforcecap.bsky.social · 7d

American Gospel.

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 8d

‘Over the last 20 trading sessions, there has been an average of 40 million calls traded a day, by far the largest on record, Goldman Sachs’s trading desk wrote citing data going back to 2010.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...