I’ve been avoiding social media the last week or so and I’m excited to have no idea what the fuck this is

Yep. I grew up in Indiana County in the 80’s and 90’s. There was not a single non-white kid in my high school. No Jews or Muslims. No one that spoke Spanish. No one that was openly gay. We did have an Amish kid briefly. I lived in a conservative world for 18 years and I don’t want to go back

I guess when ICE says “I’m from the government and I’m here to round people up into camps” that’s fine

I bought a 15’ cord when I lost my charger and frankly, I flew too close to the sun. Now I gotta carry this cable around like a roadie setting up a Metallica show.

Cool that’s what I was wondering. Thanks!

Ah I forgot there was a special election. I guess I was curious if the use of recalled vote could impact polling of different races in different ways or if it is a fairly uniform weight.

How does recalled vote work in a situation like this where there wasn’t a Senate election in Arizona in 2020? Do they just ask about 2022?

It’s fun to see a leopard eating Trump’s face for once

November Rain is a legit great song but him stroking out at the exact moment Slash’s solo hits has some appeal

It’s telling that the only places that did have this at the state level were in the old Confederacy and adopted them during Jim Crow explicitly to make it next-to-impossible for black candidates to win statewide office

Is there a good explanation for such dramatic splits in Senate and presidential polling? Given how widespread it is, it doesn’t seem like you can chalk it up to Kari Lake being a bad candidate or whatever.

The most watched shows in America last year were Tracker, NCIS and Young Sheldon

You’d think a press that keeps dinging Harris for supposedly not having detailed plans might find something objectionable in “I’ll say 100, 200. I’ll say 500. I don’t care.”

I also find the splits between presidential polling and Senate polling in places like PA, AZ and NV hard to square, as is the difference in funding. It feels like the presidential polls are the only things actually pointing to a toss up election.

I find it hard to believe that there’s been basically no movement post-Roe while running against the guy who killed it. But if you buy that recalled vote is herding polling results around the 2020 outcomes, that could explain some things

I think I agree. It’s a fine line to walk because you don’t want to go all “unskew the polls” and ignore reality, but Nate Cohn just had an article about the usage of recalled vote precisely to avoid underestimating Trump again. But the effect may be to overestimate him now

There’s some pretty solid reasons to think she’s going to win. It’s just that the downside is so enormously bad that it’s really hard to put it out of your mind.