Joe Fish
@sadbusdriver.bsky.social
PhD student doing urban econ and industrial organization at Duke. Former highest paid cashier in the Midwest; former RA at Eviction Lab; Macalester College. Not a real bus driver
The median housing unit in California is twenty years older than in texas. 10% of California's housing stock was built before WWII compared to 3% in Texas. Likewise, only 18% is built after 2000, compared to 39% in Texas. CA housing is really old!
February 12, 2026 at 2:45 PM
The median housing unit in California is twenty years older than in texas. 10% of California's housing stock was built before WWII compared to 3% in Texas. Likewise, only 18% is built after 2000, compared to 39% in Texas. CA housing is really old!
how much of this is data centers crowding out residential structures? seems plausible AI capital competes with, say, multifamily, which has dropped off a lot since it's peak in 2023
(although from your later tweets, maybe the answer is the capex boom is a lot of relabelling?)
(although from your later tweets, maybe the answer is the capex boom is a lot of relabelling?)
February 10, 2026 at 7:14 PM
how much of this is data centers crowding out residential structures? seems plausible AI capital competes with, say, multifamily, which has dropped off a lot since it's peak in 2023
(although from your later tweets, maybe the answer is the capex boom is a lot of relabelling?)
(although from your later tweets, maybe the answer is the capex boom is a lot of relabelling?)
i think we've gotten to the point where most of the people writing these kinds of articles will concede that changes in quantity tell you little about much if you press them.
but then they'll slip in headings like "As Supply Grew, the Share of Units Serving Lower-Income Renters Decreased"
but then they'll slip in headings like "As Supply Grew, the Share of Units Serving Lower-Income Renters Decreased"
February 6, 2026 at 2:53 AM
i think we've gotten to the point where most of the people writing these kinds of articles will concede that changes in quantity tell you little about much if you press them.
but then they'll slip in headings like "As Supply Grew, the Share of Units Serving Lower-Income Renters Decreased"
but then they'll slip in headings like "As Supply Grew, the Share of Units Serving Lower-Income Renters Decreased"
how should i square your substack with food prices having grown more slowly than wages? Eg., Grocery-inflation outpaced wage growth during 2022-3, but it's been stable since.
the timing kind of, but kind of doesn't line up with the changes in your chart since the pandemic
the timing kind of, but kind of doesn't line up with the changes in your chart since the pandemic
February 2, 2026 at 8:04 PM
how should i square your substack with food prices having grown more slowly than wages? Eg., Grocery-inflation outpaced wage growth during 2022-3, but it's been stable since.
the timing kind of, but kind of doesn't line up with the changes in your chart since the pandemic
the timing kind of, but kind of doesn't line up with the changes in your chart since the pandemic
a bunch of these charts just depend on how you index them. like if you make Dec 2019 the reference period, you see grocery prices growing faster than wages (and restaurants) from ~2022 to 2023
if you index to 2010 instead, it's basically undeniable that it's never been cheaper to eat at home
if you index to 2010 instead, it's basically undeniable that it's never been cheaper to eat at home
February 2, 2026 at 7:06 PM
a bunch of these charts just depend on how you index them. like if you make Dec 2019 the reference period, you see grocery prices growing faster than wages (and restaurants) from ~2022 to 2023
if you index to 2010 instead, it's basically undeniable that it's never been cheaper to eat at home
if you index to 2010 instead, it's basically undeniable that it's never been cheaper to eat at home
I can get a story where changes in credit explain most of the differences in price:rent ratios (and most of the increase in home values), but it seems very hard to use that to explain level differences in rents or even trends in rents.
February 2, 2026 at 4:41 PM
I can get a story where changes in credit explain most of the differences in price:rent ratios (and most of the increase in home values), but it seems very hard to use that to explain level differences in rents or even trends in rents.
the study being referenced is bad, but even if you take it at face value, in their "optimistic" scenario for San Francisco a 1-bedroom apartment would be affordable for a single person with no college degree in ~18 years
that'd be the single greatest housing win in possibly global history lol
that'd be the single greatest housing win in possibly global history lol
February 1, 2026 at 3:06 AM
the study being referenced is bad, but even if you take it at face value, in their "optimistic" scenario for San Francisco a 1-bedroom apartment would be affordable for a single person with no college degree in ~18 years
that'd be the single greatest housing win in possibly global history lol
that'd be the single greatest housing win in possibly global history lol
You can do the same thing with rents. The median rental unit in the US goes for like $1400. If rents had grown as fast as the rest of the economy, that same unit would cost $1075 today. The scale of the housing crisis would be a fraction of what it is, now
January 30, 2026 at 8:46 PM
You can do the same thing with rents. The median rental unit in the US goes for like $1400. If rents had grown as fast as the rest of the economy, that same unit would cost $1075 today. The scale of the housing crisis would be a fraction of what it is, now
People saying "Housing can't be both affordable and an investment" are kind of correct, but if, since 1987, housing prices had grown as fast as the rest of the economy *plus an extra one percent*, mortgages today would be 25% cheaper.
good policy over a long period helps a lot!
good policy over a long period helps a lot!
January 30, 2026 at 8:24 PM
People saying "Housing can't be both affordable and an investment" are kind of correct, but if, since 1987, housing prices had grown as fast as the rest of the economy *plus an extra one percent*, mortgages today would be 25% cheaper.
good policy over a long period helps a lot!
good policy over a long period helps a lot!
what's interesting is this is mostly a rents thing. SF home values are still pretty depressed relative to other (non-Oakland) cities.
January 28, 2026 at 4:02 PM
what's interesting is this is mostly a rents thing. SF home values are still pretty depressed relative to other (non-Oakland) cities.
Apropos of nothing, the continued decline in labor share (i think im using the correct labor share here lol), continues its long march downwards.
surely, i say, there must not be any Controversy in divining what, precisely, the labor share of income tells one about the economy and worker power
surely, i say, there must not be any Controversy in divining what, precisely, the labor share of income tells one about the economy and worker power
January 28, 2026 at 3:30 PM
Apropos of nothing, the continued decline in labor share (i think im using the correct labor share here lol), continues its long march downwards.
surely, i say, there must not be any Controversy in divining what, precisely, the labor share of income tells one about the economy and worker power
surely, i say, there must not be any Controversy in divining what, precisely, the labor share of income tells one about the economy and worker power
isn't "per adult" doing a bunch of work here, as well? like a bunch of the "stagnant" parts are just demographics, no? labor force participation spikes from the 50s to 80s which causes higher growth per adult just because more people work. you see the inverse after ~2000.
January 20, 2026 at 11:09 PM
isn't "per adult" doing a bunch of work here, as well? like a bunch of the "stagnant" parts are just demographics, no? labor force participation spikes from the 50s to 80s which causes higher growth per adult just because more people work. you see the inverse after ~2000.
the approximately equal is also true if you plot renter / owner incomes and use census rents instead of FMR. affordability is worse, but not 325% worse
January 17, 2026 at 5:27 PM
the approximately equal is also true if you plot renter / owner incomes and use census rents instead of FMR. affordability is worse, but not 325% worse
not the biggest thing, but "rents outpacing income gains by 325 percent since 1985" is not true. they've been ~approximately equal using the CPI for shelter or HUD's FMR.
(some amount of irony here since i think the 325 claim originates with my old boss lol. never learned where he got that from!)
(some amount of irony here since i think the 325 claim originates with my old boss lol. never learned where he got that from!)
January 17, 2026 at 5:01 PM
not the biggest thing, but "rents outpacing income gains by 325 percent since 1985" is not true. they've been ~approximately equal using the CPI for shelter or HUD's FMR.
(some amount of irony here since i think the 325 claim originates with my old boss lol. never learned where he got that from!)
(some amount of irony here since i think the 325 claim originates with my old boss lol. never learned where he got that from!)
construction wages are pretty rough, tbh. down in real terms and have grown way slower
January 14, 2026 at 2:19 PM
construction wages are pretty rough, tbh. down in real terms and have grown way slower
Growth metrics are always bad proxies for shortages because if you don't build you can't grow, but lack of growth doesn't mean lack of shortage.
Even with that said, the fact that California lost people but added households should be taken as a sign that we're forcing families to leave the state
Even with that said, the fact that California lost people but added households should be taken as a sign that we're forcing families to leave the state
January 9, 2026 at 11:21 PM
Growth metrics are always bad proxies for shortages because if you don't build you can't grow, but lack of growth doesn't mean lack of shortage.
Even with that said, the fact that California lost people but added households should be taken as a sign that we're forcing families to leave the state
Even with that said, the fact that California lost people but added households should be taken as a sign that we're forcing families to leave the state
i have a graph from a paper of mine that looks at property acquisitions by different kinds of landlords.
i end up finding landlords raise prices after acquiring properties, but this is mostly a "buy properties and renovate them" story and the total price effects are reasonably small.
i end up finding landlords raise prices after acquiring properties, but this is mostly a "buy properties and renovate them" story and the total price effects are reasonably small.
January 8, 2026 at 7:46 PM
i have a graph from a paper of mine that looks at property acquisitions by different kinds of landlords.
i end up finding landlords raise prices after acquiring properties, but this is mostly a "buy properties and renovate them" story and the total price effects are reasonably small.
i end up finding landlords raise prices after acquiring properties, but this is mostly a "buy properties and renovate them" story and the total price effects are reasonably small.
Major homebuilders' stocks all down today following the proposed ban on instutional investors owning homes.
probably because the ban would kill buy to rent? If so, that's another reason why the ban seems pretty misguided
probably because the ban would kill buy to rent? If so, that's another reason why the ban seems pretty misguided
January 8, 2026 at 12:53 AM
Major homebuilders' stocks all down today following the proposed ban on instutional investors owning homes.
probably because the ban would kill buy to rent? If so, that's another reason why the ban seems pretty misguided
probably because the ban would kill buy to rent? If so, that's another reason why the ban seems pretty misguided
Most San Francisco neighborhoods haven't meaningfully grown or changed since the 1980s
Keeping neighborhoods in amber remains an insane way to run a city and is a large part of why SF is so unaffordable
(This graph inspired by what will be a titanic fight over a 9-story apartment in west portal)
Keeping neighborhoods in amber remains an insane way to run a city and is a large part of why SF is so unaffordable
(This graph inspired by what will be a titanic fight over a 9-story apartment in west portal)
January 7, 2026 at 1:52 AM
Most San Francisco neighborhoods haven't meaningfully grown or changed since the 1980s
Keeping neighborhoods in amber remains an insane way to run a city and is a large part of why SF is so unaffordable
(This graph inspired by what will be a titanic fight over a 9-story apartment in west portal)
Keeping neighborhoods in amber remains an insane way to run a city and is a large part of why SF is so unaffordable
(This graph inspired by what will be a titanic fight over a 9-story apartment in west portal)
3d bar charts. Anyway,
"If God had meant there to be more than two factors of production, He would have made it easier for us to draw three-dimensional diagrams"
"If God had meant there to be more than two factors of production, He would have made it easier for us to draw three-dimensional diagrams"
January 7, 2026 at 1:04 AM
3d bar charts. Anyway,
"If God had meant there to be more than two factors of production, He would have made it easier for us to draw three-dimensional diagrams"
"If God had meant there to be more than two factors of production, He would have made it easier for us to draw three-dimensional diagrams"
January 2, 2026 at 2:30 AM
i did a quick skim on their report, and stuff like this is why i think the accounting is tricky. (entitlements to state pensions aren't counted but private pensions are)
December 31, 2025 at 7:54 PM
i did a quick skim on their report, and stuff like this is why i think the accounting is tricky. (entitlements to state pensions aren't counted but private pensions are)
what's funny about the CA wealth tax is that doing a one time tax, with a credible commitment to not do it again, is the *correct* way to do this... assuming people can't avoid the tax.
and yet because it's California, i imagine this will work out in the dumbest way possible
and yet because it's California, i imagine this will work out in the dumbest way possible
December 27, 2025 at 1:10 AM
what's funny about the CA wealth tax is that doing a one time tax, with a credible commitment to not do it again, is the *correct* way to do this... assuming people can't avoid the tax.
and yet because it's California, i imagine this will work out in the dumbest way possible
and yet because it's California, i imagine this will work out in the dumbest way possible
it also is pretty contingent on the specific survey used, e.g., the consumer board one is "ehhh bad but not horrible" vs "worse than 2008" for michigan
December 23, 2025 at 6:45 PM
it also is pretty contingent on the specific survey used, e.g., the consumer board one is "ehhh bad but not horrible" vs "worse than 2008" for michigan
There are carve outs for new construction, but those end after 10 years, and that timeline is substantially more aggressive than most rolling stock stabilization ordinances
December 22, 2025 at 10:41 PM
There are carve outs for new construction, but those end after 10 years, and that timeline is substantially more aggressive than most rolling stock stabilization ordinances