Joe Fish
@sadbusdriver.bsky.social
PhD student doing urban econ and industrial organization at Duke. Former highest paid cashier in the Midwest; former RA at Eviction Lab; Macalester College. Not a real bus driver
Growth metrics are always bad proxies for shortages because if you don't build you can't grow, but lack of growth doesn't mean lack of shortage.
Even with that said, the fact that California lost people but added households should be taken as a sign that we're forcing families to leave the state
Even with that said, the fact that California lost people but added households should be taken as a sign that we're forcing families to leave the state
January 9, 2026 at 11:21 PM
Growth metrics are always bad proxies for shortages because if you don't build you can't grow, but lack of growth doesn't mean lack of shortage.
Even with that said, the fact that California lost people but added households should be taken as a sign that we're forcing families to leave the state
Even with that said, the fact that California lost people but added households should be taken as a sign that we're forcing families to leave the state
also, when you zoom out, there's not been that much consolidation in rental markets.
even more, most of the variation in concentration that does exist comes from new apartments entering markets (because new apartments tend to be very, very big) and not from mergers.
even more, most of the variation in concentration that does exist comes from new apartments entering markets (because new apartments tend to be very, very big) and not from mergers.
January 8, 2026 at 7:57 PM
also, when you zoom out, there's not been that much consolidation in rental markets.
even more, most of the variation in concentration that does exist comes from new apartments entering markets (because new apartments tend to be very, very big) and not from mergers.
even more, most of the variation in concentration that does exist comes from new apartments entering markets (because new apartments tend to be very, very big) and not from mergers.
i have a graph from a paper of mine that looks at property acquisitions by different kinds of landlords.
i end up finding landlords raise prices after acquiring properties, but this is mostly a "buy properties and renovate them" story and the total price effects are reasonably small.
i end up finding landlords raise prices after acquiring properties, but this is mostly a "buy properties and renovate them" story and the total price effects are reasonably small.
January 8, 2026 at 7:46 PM
i have a graph from a paper of mine that looks at property acquisitions by different kinds of landlords.
i end up finding landlords raise prices after acquiring properties, but this is mostly a "buy properties and renovate them" story and the total price effects are reasonably small.
i end up finding landlords raise prices after acquiring properties, but this is mostly a "buy properties and renovate them" story and the total price effects are reasonably small.
this is great, thanks!
January 8, 2026 at 7:05 PM
this is great, thanks!
am i misremembering that the intersection where the brightline deaths mostly happen was a total catastrophe even pre-brightline?
January 8, 2026 at 6:52 PM
am i misremembering that the intersection where the brightline deaths mostly happen was a total catastrophe even pre-brightline?
the effect of this would be pretty tiny in the aggregate; very few neighborhoods are meaningfully concentrated, but in the tiny number of places where there is a lot of concentration, you might expect home prices to come down a bit (and rents, as well, possibly).
January 8, 2026 at 12:58 AM
the effect of this would be pretty tiny in the aggregate; very few neighborhoods are meaningfully concentrated, but in the tiny number of places where there is a lot of concentration, you might expect home prices to come down a bit (and rents, as well, possibly).
i think the most reasonable policy here would be to
1. mandate transparency about holdings (this would hit local conglomerates much harder than institutional investors, fwiw)
2. remove property mergers from blanket FTC exemption and subject them to scrutiny over some concentration threshold
1. mandate transparency about holdings (this would hit local conglomerates much harder than institutional investors, fwiw)
2. remove property mergers from blanket FTC exemption and subject them to scrutiny over some concentration threshold
January 8, 2026 at 12:56 AM
i think the most reasonable policy here would be to
1. mandate transparency about holdings (this would hit local conglomerates much harder than institutional investors, fwiw)
2. remove property mergers from blanket FTC exemption and subject them to scrutiny over some concentration threshold
1. mandate transparency about holdings (this would hit local conglomerates much harder than institutional investors, fwiw)
2. remove property mergers from blanket FTC exemption and subject them to scrutiny over some concentration threshold
the other funny way this goes down is if they somehow ban LLCs from owning homes, bc that's what the media typically cites as "investors buying up homes".
functionally, this wouldn't be a meaningful change in the rental market, but it will annoy a lot of small time landlords!
functionally, this wouldn't be a meaningful change in the rental market, but it will annoy a lot of small time landlords!
January 7, 2026 at 6:05 PM
the other funny way this goes down is if they somehow ban LLCs from owning homes, bc that's what the media typically cites as "investors buying up homes".
functionally, this wouldn't be a meaningful change in the rental market, but it will annoy a lot of small time landlords!
functionally, this wouldn't be a meaningful change in the rental market, but it will annoy a lot of small time landlords!
it's really funny because it *sounds* like this big, grand policy proposal, but materially it's an incredibly Kamala-coded "we will stop the purchases of 100K homes by investors with more than 1,000 homes in the Atlanta metropolitan area and some parts of other sunbelt cities". That is ~nothing lol
January 7, 2026 at 6:02 PM
it's really funny because it *sounds* like this big, grand policy proposal, but materially it's an incredibly Kamala-coded "we will stop the purchases of 100K homes by investors with more than 1,000 homes in the Atlanta metropolitan area and some parts of other sunbelt cities". That is ~nothing lol
i read a couple of chapters of bullshit jobs, and it felt like the left wing version of right wing people who say every government job is bullshit.
just because the usefulness of something isn't immediately obvious doesn't render it not useful -- such is the nature of complex systems
just because the usefulness of something isn't immediately obvious doesn't render it not useful -- such is the nature of complex systems
January 7, 2026 at 5:43 PM
i read a couple of chapters of bullshit jobs, and it felt like the left wing version of right wing people who say every government job is bullshit.
just because the usefulness of something isn't immediately obvious doesn't render it not useful -- such is the nature of complex systems
just because the usefulness of something isn't immediately obvious doesn't render it not useful -- such is the nature of complex systems
it's a really funny way to find out my old landlord is single-stair pilled (in addition to minimum lot size). who knows, maybe ill see him again some day!
January 7, 2026 at 5:37 AM
it's a really funny way to find out my old landlord is single-stair pilled (in addition to minimum lot size). who knows, maybe ill see him again some day!
yeah, rented from him for 3 years in durham. perfectly good landlord. i knew he was a former architect didn't know he had a substack lol
January 7, 2026 at 5:24 AM
yeah, rented from him for 3 years in durham. perfectly good landlord. i knew he was a former architect didn't know he had a substack lol
lol that guy was my landlord
January 7, 2026 at 5:22 AM
lol that guy was my landlord
3d bar charts. Anyway,
"If God had meant there to be more than two factors of production, He would have made it easier for us to draw three-dimensional diagrams"
"If God had meant there to be more than two factors of production, He would have made it easier for us to draw three-dimensional diagrams"
January 7, 2026 at 1:04 AM
3d bar charts. Anyway,
"If God had meant there to be more than two factors of production, He would have made it easier for us to draw three-dimensional diagrams"
"If God had meant there to be more than two factors of production, He would have made it easier for us to draw three-dimensional diagrams"
San Francisco, San Mateo, and Palo Alto build like declining rust belt cities (all build less per capita than Pittsburgh and similar to detroit, post-covid).
I guarantee you that if the Bay Area built like Seattle, let alone experienced a genuine housing boom, prices would come down quite a bit.
I guarantee you that if the Bay Area built like Seattle, let alone experienced a genuine housing boom, prices would come down quite a bit.
January 3, 2026 at 1:49 AM
San Francisco, San Mateo, and Palo Alto build like declining rust belt cities (all build less per capita than Pittsburgh and similar to detroit, post-covid).
I guarantee you that if the Bay Area built like Seattle, let alone experienced a genuine housing boom, prices would come down quite a bit.
I guarantee you that if the Bay Area built like Seattle, let alone experienced a genuine housing boom, prices would come down quite a bit.
I think the ratio can maybe be informative of differences in *relative* demand for owning vs renting; but the graph you posted had 3,000 rents and 1.3 million dollar homes.
That’s super strong evidence of a shortage of market rate housing!
That’s super strong evidence of a shortage of market rate housing!
January 3, 2026 at 1:14 AM
I think the ratio can maybe be informative of differences in *relative* demand for owning vs renting; but the graph you posted had 3,000 rents and 1.3 million dollar homes.
That’s super strong evidence of a shortage of market rate housing!
That’s super strong evidence of a shortage of market rate housing!
why would this be the case? the housing shortage affects both the cost of buying and renting, so the ratio between the two isn't informative of levels of shortages.
January 2, 2026 at 6:40 PM
why would this be the case? the housing shortage affects both the cost of buying and renting, so the ratio between the two isn't informative of levels of shortages.
January 2, 2026 at 2:30 AM
Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey does MSA vacancy rates.
ACS can give you them at whatever aggregation you want, but i think these numbers end up being noisier
www.census.gov/topics/housi...
ACS can give you them at whatever aggregation you want, but i think these numbers end up being noisier
www.census.gov/topics/housi...
Vacancy Rate Fact Sheet
Differences between the vacancy rate estimates from the ACS, the CPS/HVS, and the AHS.
www.census.gov
January 2, 2026 at 2:26 AM
Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey does MSA vacancy rates.
ACS can give you them at whatever aggregation you want, but i think these numbers end up being noisier
www.census.gov/topics/housi...
ACS can give you them at whatever aggregation you want, but i think these numbers end up being noisier
www.census.gov/topics/housi...
Chris Kringle is here to mingle, jingle, and slay
January 1, 2026 at 2:38 AM
Chris Kringle is here to mingle, jingle, and slay
it's a very underrated skill!
When i was doing interviews as a researcher at the Eviction Lab, i was kind of stunned that tenant advocates in, say, New York City, would know very little about what was happening in Philadelphia (or Philadelphians to Pittsburgh or Baltimore)
When i was doing interviews as a researcher at the Eviction Lab, i was kind of stunned that tenant advocates in, say, New York City, would know very little about what was happening in Philadelphia (or Philadelphians to Pittsburgh or Baltimore)
December 31, 2025 at 8:23 PM
it's a very underrated skill!
When i was doing interviews as a researcher at the Eviction Lab, i was kind of stunned that tenant advocates in, say, New York City, would know very little about what was happening in Philadelphia (or Philadelphians to Pittsburgh or Baltimore)
When i was doing interviews as a researcher at the Eviction Lab, i was kind of stunned that tenant advocates in, say, New York City, would know very little about what was happening in Philadelphia (or Philadelphians to Pittsburgh or Baltimore)
financing and hard costs aren't why seattle experienced a medium-sized building boom during their tech boom and san francisco didn't.
put differently, had san francisco been seattle from 2011-2019, there'd be ~70,000 more units in SF today and prices would be way, way lower
put differently, had san francisco been seattle from 2011-2019, there'd be ~70,000 more units in SF today and prices would be way, way lower
December 31, 2025 at 8:14 PM
financing and hard costs aren't why seattle experienced a medium-sized building boom during their tech boom and san francisco didn't.
put differently, had san francisco been seattle from 2011-2019, there'd be ~70,000 more units in SF today and prices would be way, way lower
put differently, had san francisco been seattle from 2011-2019, there'd be ~70,000 more units in SF today and prices would be way, way lower