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Stefan Siegert

@safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy

39 followers 0 following 140 posts

Trying to do well in Family, Science, Education, Sports, Art, with varying levels of success. Mathematics (Statistics | Uncertainty | Forecasting) Computer […] 🌉 bridged from ⁂ https://mastodon.social/@safest_integer, follow @ap.brid.gy to interact

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Reposted by Stefan Siegert

Tom Gauld @tomgauld.bsky.social · 7d

My new book of science cartoons, PHYSICS FOR CATS is out in a week! Order a copy today from you local bookshop or at one of the links here: www.tomgauld.com/comic-books-v2

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Reposted by Stefan Siegert

Resolviendo la incógnita 🌐 @rliblog.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 4d

Los sastrecillos usan las fibras de las plantas o incluso telarañas para tejer las hojas donde construyen sus nidos. #aves #birds

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Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 17h

Good article on possible impact of chatbots on variability in learning pace and implications for universities.

https://hollisrobbinsanecdotal.substack.com/p/the-two-minute-mile-problem

"states have built an entire accountability apparatus around a single assumption (steady-state learning pace) […]

Original post on mastodon.social

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Reposted by Stefan Siegert

Vitex @vitex.f.cz.ap.brid.gy · 1d

Real #minesweeper #streetart

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Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 2d

Some sources that discuss the incompatibility. I guess I have some reading to do.

Criticisms of falsification https://iep.utm.edu/pop-sci/#H3

Gelman: Popper and Jaynes https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2013/09/03/popper-and-jaynes/

Deutsch: Simple refutation of the ‘Bayesian’ philosophy […]

Original post on mastodon.social

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Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 2d

Cognitive dissonance as I realise that two world views that I thought I hold turn out to be incompatible.

Popperian epistemology asserts that theories are confronted with observations and rejected if they don't fit.

Bayesian theory tells us how to update beliefs in light of new evidence from […]

Original post on mastodon.social

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Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 2d

[Code explanation]

Generate 1000 groups (i), each expanded over 100 angles (tt). Two AR(2) series (r1,r2) as sources of randomness. Radius r grows with i and is modulated by r1,r2. Convert to Cartesian (x,y), with x shifted shifted rightward (5*i) and y varies with i and r1. Each group […]

Original post on mastodon.social

mastodon.social

Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 2d

[R code]

library(tidyverse)
set.seed(25)
n = 1e3
tibble(
i = 1:n/n,
r1 = c(arima.sim(list(ar=c(1.999,-0.9995)), n, sd=1e-3)),
r2 = c(arima.sim(list(ar=c(1.999,-0.9995)), n, sd=1e-3))) |>
mutate(tt = list(seq(0,2*pi,l=100))) |>
unnest(cols=c(tt)) |>
mutate(
dr = r1*cos(tt) + r2*sin(2*tt),
r = […]

Original post on mastodon.social

mastodon.social

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Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 2d

Playing around with AR(2) noise, random Fourier modes and polar coordinates produced this neat smoke-like patter.

Code 👇

#rstats #generativeart

Generative art, abstract smoke-like black and white drawing

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Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 3d

Swallowtail butterfly (Daniel Saftner, Macroscopic Solutions)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/in-pictures-35744907

Butterflies have two big round eyes for seeing quick movements and two antennae for smelling. They also have a long feeding tube, which is curled […]

[Original post on mastodon.social]

Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 4d

I keep forgetting this elegant proof...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anomalous_cancellation

#mathematics #calculus #humour

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Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 5d

Mmmmm, burnt bean water with frothed udder juice.

#weekend #breakfast

Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 5d

@MugsysRapSheet The transition from the "F.A." to the "F.O." phase seems to be going smoothly.

Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 6d

The Minds We Make: A Philosophical Inquiry into Theory of Mind and Artificial Intelligence (2025)

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12124-024-09876-2

"The subtle yet significant distinctions between the verbs “thinking” and “knowing” are more than just linguistic nuances; they play a pivotal role in […]

Original post on mastodon.social

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Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 7d

Problems in #ai, their roots in #philosophy, and implications for
#science and #society (2024, #arxiv )

"As #popper has shown, the method of inductivism cannot hope to create true new ‘universal’ or even ‘more probable’ statements based on individual […]

[Original post on mastodon.social]

Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 7d

Photo of a southern giant petrel, its white feathers stained with blood, won the best portrait category of this year’s Bird Photography of the Year award. The scavenger birds are native to the Southern Ocean, with this photo taken in the Falkland Islands […]

[Original post on mastodon.social]

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Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 8d

@c_ozwei AMOC collapse will cause all sorts of global mayhem that I don't look forward to. But in terms of middle European temperatures, it always seems like AMOC cooling will just about offset global warming from GHGs. The much bigger issue with AMOC slowdown is that less evaporation over the […]

Original post on mastodon.social

mastodon.social

Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 8d

@statsepi.bsky.social

The group_by |> mutate(n=n()) |> ungroup construct can be replaced by data |> count(x). If the goal of the reorder() is to sort by increasing n you should use |> arrange(n) instead.

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Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 8d

The FediMeteo project puts weather forecasts for my city into my mastodon timeline by following a bot account.

https://fedimeteo.com/

#meteorology #weather #mastodon @admin 👍

Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 8d

They: You can't outrun a bad diet.
Me: Challenge accepted.

#running #health #diet

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Reposted by Stefan Siegert

ikuturso @ikuturso.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 9d

@safest_integer we're already seeing the beginnings of the enshittification too although they're still trying to delay some things like ads and "shopping" a bit longer.

Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 9d

https://www.thecrystalship.be/de/kunstwerke/belin

#streetart

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Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 9d

Self-obsessed fitness Youtuber with a PhD eloquently gets his dissertation ripped to shreds, what's not to like?

Also, PhD students pay attention, this is exactly the level of diligence with which your thesis will be assessed […]

[Original post on mastodon.social]

Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 9d

I considered posting on #bluesky but not anymore, thanks @pluralistic

"I’m not on Bluesky and I don’t have any plans to join it anytime soon ... now that a VC is holding Bluesky’s purse-strings, enshittification will surely follow (doubly so because the VC is called “Blockchain Capital,”...)" […]

Original post on mastodon.social

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Stefan Siegert @safest-integer.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy · 9d

#tilingtuesday #rstats

Code: https://mastodon.social/@safest_integer/114304728293255069

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