it’s the best holiday, the entire point is to appreciate family, friends, and FOOD! the most american and most inclusive holiday

this may not exist but i’d love to see more granular data on votes counted over time from king county. katie’s drop on day 2 versus election day points to something more complex than simply a late swing to the progressive candidate.

sure enough! her margin in this batch increased 0.8% to 55.6%. if she maintains this margin for 10k remaining ballots, she'll end up at 50.03% overall, beating bruce by 1,235 votes (0.44%).

bruce needs 50.3% of the remaining ballots to win, which is >6% swing from his 44.1% in the last batch.

man the one good thing she ever tried to do

take a look here, daniel posted a chart of vote share in each drop!

bsky.app/profile/dcjo...

the slope leveling off here doesn’t necessarily indicate her share of the vote dropping. later vote drops have a smaller impact on the overall margin because they are a smaller portion of all votes counted at that point.

she wins the same portion of remaining ballots but that’s being averaged with more votes counted previously, so it has less of an impact.

another way to look at it is her win portion is an asymptote that the overall margin will approach but not cross.

here's my attempt, with the red line showing where wilson would end up if she wins the same portion of remaining ballots that she won in the latest batch — it ends up being just a 0.2% margin

one of your very best!

what if put vote margin over votes counted?

or even share of votes counted out of total turnout for that year.

it’s an approximation of the continuous count of vote margin in the order the votes are counted

any idea how many ballots remain to be counted?

carter here’s what i said originally that offended you so much. see any mention of my sexuality? or excuses for mike? nope and yet you’ll keep lying about me.

sorry should i be calling him “my cock” instead? how about that other word you like to throw around? the one starting with f?

pretty bold of you to say i don’t respect queer people because i’ll call out homophobia no matter who it comes from.

doubly so when you drop some casual homophobia of your own because a gay man dared disagree with you. “wahh why is it their whole personality” you sound like mike johnson dude

defending him from the terribleness of being gay eh? once again you say being gay is a bad thing.

if you called him a woman and i disagreed, would you think i’m defending him? i don’t care about mike, he’d still be a shithead if he were gay! i do care about ignorant allies sneering “ha you’re gay”.

it’s nice to be wrong, it means i learned something!

but the “mike johnson grindr screenshots” are fake. his “selfie” is cropped from a different photo. he says he’ll take his date to the dabney in dc, where he’d be recognized, photographed, and outed immediately.

www.snopes.com/news/2025/03...

i was too optimistic thinking you could puzzle that one out for yourself. no carter, i am not a republican.

but why let my actual words get in the way of your uncanny intuition? just like how you look at a bigot and know he’s secretly gay. like you said, if you’re thinking it then it must be true.

a tiny percent of queer people are republicans, so what? it’s a drop in the bucket, overwhelmingly that bigotry comes from straight people. republicans are magnitudes worse, and yet liberals still have their share — me pointing out one source of homophobia doesn’t mean i support another one