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Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · 1d

Thanks for this nudge! I have just changed the settings. Will be more mindful of this moving forward 🙏

Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · 1d

Thanks! Please let me know your students' remarks/reactions!

Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu

Michael Donnelly @mjdonnelly.bsky.social · 1d

Semuhi's comparative work is depressingly relevant to current events in the US: www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/com...

Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation | Government and Opposition | Cambridge Core

Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · 1d

doi.org/10.1017/gov....

Thanks @lucanway.bsky.social, @mjdonnelly.bsky.social, @timfrye.bsky.social for useful advice!

Might be of interest cc: @mikealbertus.bsky.social @adridelrio.bsky.social @chknutsen.bsky.social @vicshih.bsky.social

@idos-research.bsky.social @govandopp.bsky.social

Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation

Strategic humanitarian aid, trust in Europe and support for authoritarianism

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Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · 1d

🔑 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲: It may be too late to expect systematic #defection from co-opted elites, unless the autocrat's #propaganda power gets diminished. Instead, democracy protection must focus on convincing and encouraging the business community to preemptively defend democratic institutions.

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Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · 1d

Using a bargaining game and data from 76 countries, I find that material benefits from the government prevent the business elite from switching to the opposition, partly due to the extensive government control over the media landscape.

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Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · 1d

🧵 The deeper the 𝘲𝘶𝘪𝘥 𝘱𝘳𝘰 𝘲𝘶𝘰 with the dictator, the weaker their threat of defection. Put simply: once you’re tied into the system, you can’t credibly walk away.

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Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · 1d

𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐧’𝐭 #𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 #𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬?

They face huge risks, especially during economic crises, when dictators choose to financially extort or #purge their business allies. And yet, despite their power to disrupt, business elites rarely switch sides.

My research shows why.

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Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · 2d

📚 Read more in my new discussion paper and policy brief.

🎤 The bottom line: how #Europe talks about humanitarian aid matters just as much as how it delivers it.

Discussion Paper: doi.org/10.23661/idp...
Policy Brief: doi.org/10.23661/ipb...

@idos-research.bsky.social

What happens when donors admit humanitarian aid is strategic? An experiment in Turkey shows it undercuts regime propaganda and builds trust in Europe...

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Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · 2d

I ran an experiment to test how people react to different kinds of post-disaster aid. The results were surprising: 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 #𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐝𝐦𝐢𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐜 𝐦𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬, 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐩𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐡. 𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐚𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞/𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐭/𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩𝐬 - audiences you’d expect to be the hardest to convince.

Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · 2d

#Authoritarian regimes jump on this. They weaponize the narrative, calling aid workers foreign agents and dismissing #humanitarian assistance as selfish and hypocritical.

But here’s the question: 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 #𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐚 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤?

Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · 2d

"𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐨𝐟 #𝐠𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬." You’ve probably heard that a lot lately.

#European leaders now frame international assistance as a strategic tool to protect borders, prevent #conflict, and promote commercial ties.

Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu

German Marshall Fund @gmfus.bsky.social · Sep 3

🎓 Meet the 2025 MMF Fellows! (Part 4)

📣 GMF is proud to introduce the participants of the 2025 Marshall Memorial Fellowship. The fellows will begin their programming in Washington, DC, and then continue with 24 days of immersive, transatlantic travel to three European cities.

🔗 buff.ly/NPYvdep

Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu

Government and Opposition @govandopp.bsky.social · 15d

On #FirstView -

"Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation" - shorturl.at/4spJG

by Semuhi Sinanoglu (@semuhi.bsky.social)

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Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu

IDOS_research @idos-research.bsky.social · 23d

#HumanitarianAid is increasingly guided by strategic interests rather than humanitarian needs. Europe’s humanitarian commitments are under strain as geopolitics reshapes international solidarity. 💡 New IDOS #PolicyBrief by IDOS expert @semuhi.bsky.social doi.org/10.23661/ipb...

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Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu

Review of Democracy @revdem2020.bsky.social · 27d

🎙️ In the new episode of our special series produced in partnership with @jodemocracy.bsky.social, @semuhi.bsky.social and @lucanway.bsky.social reflect on capitalism’s enduring imperfections while presenting it as a plausible force for democratic change.

🎧 Listen to it now:
👉 tinyurl.com/2mdcv2cw

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Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu

Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · Aug 26

#OpenAccess from @govandopp.bsky.social‬ -

Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation - https://cup.org/3HMMH51

- @semuhi.bsky.social

#FirstView

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Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu

Government and Opposition @govandopp.bsky.social · Sep 2

#OpenAccess on #FirstView -

"Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation" - cup.org/3HMMH51

by @semuhi.bsky.social

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Reposted by Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu

IDOS_research @idos-research.bsky.social · Sep 1

#Throwback to #GMF2025: @semuhi.bsky.social shares key insights from the IDOS session on “Rethinking #InformationResilience: Alternative Toolkit, New Alliances” – 🎥 Watch the full video on #YouTube: youtu.be/ls2-vkxc-S4

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Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · Jul 8

#Humanitarian #aid is taking a backseat to #geopolitics. As an act of solidarity, it helped win hearts & minds. But would it have the same effect linked to strategic interests? The results are surprisingly positive! Thanks Diplomatisches Magazin for featuring my research. @idos-research.bsky.social

Countering information pollution to protect democracy

Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · Jul 8

If you are interested in reading more on this, here is our recent policy brief on the topic: doi.org/10.23661/ipb...

#GMF25 #BreakingBarriers #Business #Democracy

@idos-research.bsky.social

This policy brief discusses international efforts to counter information pollution. It critically discusses available tools against information...

Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · Jul 8

3️⃣ Businesses are getting more and more invested in preparedness against information pollution, because, in the end, it also impacts their bottom line. However, stakeholders are still struggling to foster these cross-sectoral collaborations. But there are good examples to learn from.

Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · Jul 8

2️⃣Two key actors are still pretty much trusted: local media and employers. Stakeholders should maintain and increase this trust and leverage it for interventions to protect information integrity.

Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu @semuhi.bsky.social · Jul 8

1️⃣ The interventions should be context-sensitive. Some stakeholders operate under resource constraints. Also, providing only factual information is not always the solution. People are worried about being misled, but they are also often willing to mislead if it helps their cause.