Sergey
@sergeycyw.bsky.social
I talk about growth stock investing and fundamental analysis with a long-term mindset. I provide earnings reviews and key news updates. Not investment advice.
SergeyCYW.substack.com
SergeyCYW.substack.com
The Price/Sales/Growth (PSG) metric is a valuable valuation tool used to evaluate software companies, offering a detailed perspective that goes beyond traditional price-to-sales (P/S) ratios by incorporating the growth aspect of the business.
December 14, 2025 at 2:58 PM
The Price/Sales/Growth (PSG) metric is a valuable valuation tool used to evaluate software companies, offering a detailed perspective that goes beyond traditional price-to-sales (P/S) ratios by incorporating the growth aspect of the business.
The Rule of 40 is a pivotal financial metric used to evaluate the performance of SaaS and other growth-oriented software companies. It serves as a benchmark that balances revenue growth and profitability, providing a comprehensive snapshot of a company's overall financial health.
December 14, 2025 at 1:00 PM
The Rule of 40 is a pivotal financial metric used to evaluate the performance of SaaS and other growth-oriented software companies. It serves as a benchmark that balances revenue growth and profitability, providing a comprehensive snapshot of a company's overall financial health.
Let's examine SaaS companies* valuations by analyzing the Forward EV/Gross Profit (GAAP) multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth.
December 13, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Let's examine SaaS companies* valuations by analyzing the Forward EV/Gross Profit (GAAP) multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth.
SaaS companies* are typically evaluated based on the Forward EV/Sales multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth.
December 13, 2025 at 11:56 AM
SaaS companies* are typically evaluated based on the Forward EV/Sales multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth.
$WYFI
Earlier stage and more selective. Management is prioritizing investment-grade tenants over speed. Near-term underutilization masks longer-term optionality if flagship capacity comes online as planned.
Earlier stage and more selective. Management is prioritizing investment-grade tenants over speed. Near-term underutilization masks longer-term optionality if flagship capacity comes online as planned.
December 12, 2025 at 4:04 PM
$WYFI
Earlier stage and more selective. Management is prioritizing investment-grade tenants over speed. Near-term underutilization masks longer-term optionality if flagship capacity comes online as planned.
Earlier stage and more selective. Management is prioritizing investment-grade tenants over speed. Near-term underutilization masks longer-term optionality if flagship capacity comes online as planned.
$IREN
One of the strongest hyperscale partnerships in the space. The Microsoft contract alone reshapes the revenue base. Returns are attractive, but execution and financing precision will determine outcomes.
One of the strongest hyperscale partnerships in the space. The Microsoft contract alone reshapes the revenue base. Returns are attractive, but execution and financing precision will determine outcomes.
December 12, 2025 at 4:04 PM
$IREN
One of the strongest hyperscale partnerships in the space. The Microsoft contract alone reshapes the revenue base. Returns are attractive, but execution and financing precision will determine outcomes.
One of the strongest hyperscale partnerships in the space. The Microsoft contract alone reshapes the revenue base. Returns are attractive, but execution and financing precision will determine outcomes.
$CIFR
Moving from crypto volatility toward contracted HPC cash flows. Google and Amazon deals anchor the future. Power access is a differentiator, while interconnection timing remains the swing factor.
Moving from crypto volatility toward contracted HPC cash flows. Google and Amazon deals anchor the future. Power access is a differentiator, while interconnection timing remains the swing factor.
December 12, 2025 at 4:04 PM
$CIFR
Moving from crypto volatility toward contracted HPC cash flows. Google and Amazon deals anchor the future. Power access is a differentiator, while interconnection timing remains the swing factor.
Moving from crypto volatility toward contracted HPC cash flows. Google and Amazon deals anchor the future. Power access is a differentiator, while interconnection timing remains the swing factor.
$APLD
Assets are validated by anchor tenants, but the income statement is in transition. Preferred equity financing helps protect equity holders. Lease commencements are the real inflection point.
Assets are validated by anchor tenants, but the income statement is in transition. Preferred equity financing helps protect equity holders. Lease commencements are the real inflection point.
December 12, 2025 at 4:04 PM
$APLD
Assets are validated by anchor tenants, but the income statement is in transition. Preferred equity financing helps protect equity holders. Lease commencements are the real inflection point.
Assets are validated by anchor tenants, but the income statement is in transition. Preferred equity financing helps protect equity holders. Lease commencements are the real inflection point.
$WULF
A clean pivot from mining to AI infrastructure. Long-term, Google-backed leases change the risk profile entirely. Financing is largely in place, but delivery and ramp timing still carry weight.
A clean pivot from mining to AI infrastructure. Long-term, Google-backed leases change the risk profile entirely. Financing is largely in place, but delivery and ramp timing still carry weight.
December 12, 2025 at 4:04 PM
$WULF
A clean pivot from mining to AI infrastructure. Long-term, Google-backed leases change the risk profile entirely. Financing is largely in place, but delivery and ramp timing still carry weight.
A clean pivot from mining to AI infrastructure. Long-term, Google-backed leases change the risk profile entirely. Financing is largely in place, but delivery and ramp timing still carry weight.
$CRWV
The scale leader. Backlog north of $55B shows demand is not the issue. EBITDA margins are strong, but interest expense is the tax for growing this fast. Leverage turns flawless execution into a requirement, not an advantage.
The scale leader. Backlog north of $55B shows demand is not the issue. EBITDA margins are strong, but interest expense is the tax for growing this fast. Leverage turns flawless execution into a requirement, not an advantage.
December 12, 2025 at 4:04 PM
$CRWV
The scale leader. Backlog north of $55B shows demand is not the issue. EBITDA margins are strong, but interest expense is the tax for growing this fast. Leverage turns flawless execution into a requirement, not an advantage.
The scale leader. Backlog north of $55B shows demand is not the issue. EBITDA margins are strong, but interest expense is the tax for growing this fast. Leverage turns flawless execution into a requirement, not an advantage.
$NBIS
Revenue growth is off the charts and hyperscale contracts with Microsoft and Meta lock in long-dated demand. Capex was lifted to $5B to accelerate builds. Power and GPU availability define the pace. The model works if capital discipline holds.
Revenue growth is off the charts and hyperscale contracts with Microsoft and Meta lock in long-dated demand. Capex was lifted to $5B to accelerate builds. Power and GPU availability define the pace. The model works if capital discipline holds.
December 12, 2025 at 4:04 PM
$NBIS
Revenue growth is off the charts and hyperscale contracts with Microsoft and Meta lock in long-dated demand. Capex was lifted to $5B to accelerate builds. Power and GPU availability define the pace. The model works if capital discipline holds.
Revenue growth is off the charts and hyperscale contracts with Microsoft and Meta lock in long-dated demand. Capex was lifted to $5B to accelerate builds. Power and GPU availability define the pace. The model works if capital discipline holds.
WhiteFiber revenue up 64% YoY, but stock sits 52% below all-time highs
#WYFI has lost more than half its value from the peak, even as the business scales rapidly into the Neo Cloud race. Q3 2025 revenue grew 64% year over year to $20.2 million.
#WYFI has lost more than half its value from the peak, even as the business scales rapidly into the Neo Cloud race. Q3 2025 revenue grew 64% year over year to $20.2 million.
December 12, 2025 at 3:31 PM
WhiteFiber revenue up 64% YoY, but stock sits 52% below all-time highs
#WYFI has lost more than half its value from the peak, even as the business scales rapidly into the Neo Cloud race. Q3 2025 revenue grew 64% year over year to $20.2 million.
#WYFI has lost more than half its value from the peak, even as the business scales rapidly into the Neo Cloud race. Q3 2025 revenue grew 64% year over year to $20.2 million.
Shareholder dilution is becoming harder to ignore. NBIS and WULF remain relatively contained, but dilution accelerates beyond that point. CIFR and WYFI already erode ownership meaningfully. IREN moves into heavy territory.
December 12, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Shareholder dilution is becoming harder to ignore. NBIS and WULF remain relatively contained, but dilution accelerates beyond that point. CIFR and WYFI already erode ownership meaningfully. IREN moves into heavy territory.
Valuation inflation compounds the risk as funding crowds into infrastructure at once.
December 12, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Valuation inflation compounds the risk as funding crowds into infrastructure at once.
Performance relative to 52-week highs tells a more restrained story. WYFI sits -52%, CRWV -53%, IREN -43%, NBIS -33%, CIFR -26%, APLD -24%, and WULF -7%. Volatility is not a side effect. It is a signal that sustainability, valuation, and funding structure remain unresolved.
December 12, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Performance relative to 52-week highs tells a more restrained story. WYFI sits -52%, CRWV -53%, IREN -43%, NBIS -33%, CIFR -26%, APLD -24%, and WULF -7%. Volatility is not a side effect. It is a signal that sustainability, valuation, and funding structure remain unresolved.
Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate (DBNRR), this metric is crucial for SaaS companies as it reflects customer loyalty and product stickiness. It measures the revenue retained from existing customers over a specific period, accounting for upgrades, downgrades, and churn.
December 12, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate (DBNRR), this metric is crucial for SaaS companies as it reflects customer loyalty and product stickiness. It measures the revenue retained from existing customers over a specific period, accounting for upgrades, downgrades, and churn.
Teradata $TDC
Teradata returned to growth as AI reshapes hybrid data strategies. Revenue reached $416M, with gross margin expanding 400 bps to 62.3% and FCF up 28%. Cloud ARR grew 11%, while on-prem stabilized. QueryGrid and vector capabilities reposition Teradata as an AI execution layer.
Teradata returned to growth as AI reshapes hybrid data strategies. Revenue reached $416M, with gross margin expanding 400 bps to 62.3% and FCF up 28%. Cloud ARR grew 11%, while on-prem stabilized. QueryGrid and vector capabilities reposition Teradata as an AI execution layer.
December 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Teradata $TDC
Teradata returned to growth as AI reshapes hybrid data strategies. Revenue reached $416M, with gross margin expanding 400 bps to 62.3% and FCF up 28%. Cloud ARR grew 11%, while on-prem stabilized. QueryGrid and vector capabilities reposition Teradata as an AI execution layer.
Teradata returned to growth as AI reshapes hybrid data strategies. Revenue reached $416M, with gross margin expanding 400 bps to 62.3% and FCF up 28%. Cloud ARR grew 11%, while on-prem stabilized. QueryGrid and vector capabilities reposition Teradata as an AI execution layer.
$IBM
IBM delivered a clean margin reset. Revenue reached $16.33B, up 9.1% YoY, while gross margin expanded to 57%. Operating income surged 551% YoY to $2.75B, and net income rose 629%, lifting net margin to 11%.
IBM delivered a clean margin reset. Revenue reached $16.33B, up 9.1% YoY, while gross margin expanded to 57%. Operating income surged 551% YoY to $2.75B, and net income rose 629%, lifting net margin to 11%.
December 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
$IBM
IBM delivered a clean margin reset. Revenue reached $16.33B, up 9.1% YoY, while gross margin expanded to 57%. Operating income surged 551% YoY to $2.75B, and net income rose 629%, lifting net margin to 11%.
IBM delivered a clean margin reset. Revenue reached $16.33B, up 9.1% YoY, while gross margin expanded to 57%. Operating income surged 551% YoY to $2.75B, and net income rose 629%, lifting net margin to 11%.
SAP $SAP
SAP entered reacceleration with cloud revenue up 27% and cloud ERP growing 31%, now 87% of cloud mix. Cloud backlog reached €18.8B, up 27%, while cloud gross margin improved to 75.1%. The harmonized business data model underpins AI differentiation across ERP workflows.
SAP entered reacceleration with cloud revenue up 27% and cloud ERP growing 31%, now 87% of cloud mix. Cloud backlog reached €18.8B, up 27%, while cloud gross margin improved to 75.1%. The harmonized business data model underpins AI differentiation across ERP workflows.
December 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
SAP $SAP
SAP entered reacceleration with cloud revenue up 27% and cloud ERP growing 31%, now 87% of cloud mix. Cloud backlog reached €18.8B, up 27%, while cloud gross margin improved to 75.1%. The harmonized business data model underpins AI differentiation across ERP workflows.
SAP entered reacceleration with cloud revenue up 27% and cloud ERP growing 31%, now 87% of cloud mix. Cloud backlog reached €18.8B, up 27%, while cloud gross margin improved to 75.1%. The harmonized business data model underpins AI differentiation across ERP workflows.
Amazon $AMZN
Amazon combined AI scale with improving leverage. Revenue reached $180.2B, while AWS reaccelerated to 20.2% growth on a $132B run rate. AWS backlog hit $200B, and Trainium2 usage surged 150% sequentially.
Amazon combined AI scale with improving leverage. Revenue reached $180.2B, while AWS reaccelerated to 20.2% growth on a $132B run rate. AWS backlog hit $200B, and Trainium2 usage surged 150% sequentially.
December 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Amazon $AMZN
Amazon combined AI scale with improving leverage. Revenue reached $180.2B, while AWS reaccelerated to 20.2% growth on a $132B run rate. AWS backlog hit $200B, and Trainium2 usage surged 150% sequentially.
Amazon combined AI scale with improving leverage. Revenue reached $180.2B, while AWS reaccelerated to 20.2% growth on a $132B run rate. AWS backlog hit $200B, and Trainium2 usage surged 150% sequentially.
Elastic $ESTC
Elastic showed improving enterprise traction with revenue up 16% and operating margin expanding to 16.5%. RPO grew 19%, with multiple $10M+ ACV wins. Vector search, embeddings, and GenAI retrieval strengthen relevance across unstructured data.
Elastic showed improving enterprise traction with revenue up 16% and operating margin expanding to 16.5%. RPO grew 19%, with multiple $10M+ ACV wins. Vector search, embeddings, and GenAI retrieval strengthen relevance across unstructured data.
December 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Elastic $ESTC
Elastic showed improving enterprise traction with revenue up 16% and operating margin expanding to 16.5%. RPO grew 19%, with multiple $10M+ ACV wins. Vector search, embeddings, and GenAI retrieval strengthen relevance across unstructured data.
Elastic showed improving enterprise traction with revenue up 16% and operating margin expanding to 16.5%. RPO grew 19%, with multiple $10M+ ACV wins. Vector search, embeddings, and GenAI retrieval strengthen relevance across unstructured data.
Alphabet $GOOGL
Alphabet posted its first $100B+ quarter, with Cloud revenue up 34% and margin expanding to 23.7%. Cloud backlog surged 82% to $155B, supported by billion-dollar AI deals. Gemini now serves 650M users, processing 1.3 quadrillion tokens monthly.
Alphabet posted its first $100B+ quarter, with Cloud revenue up 34% and margin expanding to 23.7%. Cloud backlog surged 82% to $155B, supported by billion-dollar AI deals. Gemini now serves 650M users, processing 1.3 quadrillion tokens monthly.
December 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Alphabet $GOOGL
Alphabet posted its first $100B+ quarter, with Cloud revenue up 34% and margin expanding to 23.7%. Cloud backlog surged 82% to $155B, supported by billion-dollar AI deals. Gemini now serves 650M users, processing 1.3 quadrillion tokens monthly.
Alphabet posted its first $100B+ quarter, with Cloud revenue up 34% and margin expanding to 23.7%. Cloud backlog surged 82% to $155B, supported by billion-dollar AI deals. Gemini now serves 650M users, processing 1.3 quadrillion tokens monthly.