Technology news shocks, which we identify using US patent applications, drive expansions just via sheer anticipation.
Here is our new paper, now published at the Review of Economic Studies.

www.restud.com/patents-news...

It's not every day that @tracyalloway.bsky.social mentions you in her Odd Lots newsletter. I have officially peaked!

cc: my all-star co-authors @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social and Jack Chylak.

www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Thanks @tracyalloway.bsky.social and @bloomberg.com for featuring our work.

In summary, what consumers have been saying differs from what they have been doing during the post-pandemic period. We should exercise caution when using consumer sentiment surveys to infer future consumer behavior given this recent disconnect between what consumers say and do.

The more people thought the prices they paid rose faster than their incomes, the worse they said they were doing. And consumers were more likely to overestimate than to underestimate the inflation they experienced.

We show that verified spending on everyday retail items (which we merged with the survey results) remained strong even among those who said they felt worse about the economy in 2024 compared with 2019.

Our new FEDS note is out! It summarizes the results of a household survey that aims to understand how changes in household incomes and spending between 2019 and 2024 shaped their economic sentiment.

www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

After years of hard work, our new paper is out as a Bank of England working paper. Joint work with Daniel Ostry, Hélène Rey, Adrien Rousset Planat, Vania Stavrakeva and Jenny Tang.

www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Got the ball rolling on a Fed Economists starter pack go.bsky.app/GudXeoo

Fed economists, let me know if you’re on Bluesky and I’ll add you

You can now list your Bluesky account in your RePEc profile, like you already could for Mastodon and Twitter. Log in at the RePEc Author Service, click on "contacts", enter it and save. It will be listed on your profile at IDEAS after the next nightly refresh.

authors.repec.org

#econsky #RePEc

Who is driving consumer spending? It's middle- and high-income households.
We released this FEDS note last month and are now working on releasing regular updates to the series we report in the note.
Stay tuned for our updates and follow up work!
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Thanks for this! I’d love to be added please.