Oleksandr Shepotylo
@shepotylo.bsky.social
International Trade, Productivity, Security @ Aston Centre for Business Prosperity | Born and raised in Ukraine | Large data analysis enthusiast | Views my own
#EconSky #trade #economics
#EconSky #trade #economics
Fun tariff economics lesson: US put 15% tax on Ghana cocoa → imports dropped to ~zero → revenue collected = lol nothing → chocolate prices went up anyway → tariff quietly removed
Turns out you can't fund the government by taxing things that stop existing. Who knew! 🍫📊
Turns out you can't fund the government by taxing things that stop existing. Who knew! 🍫📊
November 28, 2025 at 8:49 AM
Fun tariff economics lesson: US put 15% tax on Ghana cocoa → imports dropped to ~zero → revenue collected = lol nothing → chocolate prices went up anyway → tariff quietly removed
Turns out you can't fund the government by taxing things that stop existing. Who knew! 🍫📊
Turns out you can't fund the government by taxing things that stop existing. Who knew! 🍫📊
Witkoff is a russian tool who helps Russians and inform them against Ukraine. The Republican Party of Reagan and Bushes would not approve this.
November 25, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Witkoff is a russian tool who helps Russians and inform them against Ukraine. The Republican Party of Reagan and Bushes would not approve this.
I am speechless
November 25, 2025 at 10:32 AM
I am speechless
D Trump just confirmed my assessment that the impact of tariffs on consumers and firms in the US will be felt the most around Thanksgiving and afterwards.
However, those tariffs are mostly paid by the US firms and consumers. According to the Centre for Business Prosperity (CBP) research:
However, those tariffs are mostly paid by the US firms and consumers. According to the Centre for Business Prosperity (CBP) research:
November 24, 2025 at 12:54 PM
D Trump just confirmed my assessment that the impact of tariffs on consumers and firms in the US will be felt the most around Thanksgiving and afterwards.
However, those tariffs are mostly paid by the US firms and consumers. According to the Centre for Business Prosperity (CBP) research:
However, those tariffs are mostly paid by the US firms and consumers. According to the Centre for Business Prosperity (CBP) research:
Report on the UK trade is up on substack:
- Boom in trade in gold and precious metals
- Renaissance of aerospace and defence
- Auto sector is doing rather poorly
- UK (and EU) is lagging in AI boom really badly
open.substack.com/pub/oleksand...
- Boom in trade in gold and precious metals
- Renaissance of aerospace and defence
- Auto sector is doing rather poorly
- UK (and EU) is lagging in AI boom really badly
open.substack.com/pub/oleksand...
November 21, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Report on the UK trade is up on substack:
- Boom in trade in gold and precious metals
- Renaissance of aerospace and defence
- Auto sector is doing rather poorly
- UK (and EU) is lagging in AI boom really badly
open.substack.com/pub/oleksand...
- Boom in trade in gold and precious metals
- Renaissance of aerospace and defence
- Auto sector is doing rather poorly
- UK (and EU) is lagging in AI boom really badly
open.substack.com/pub/oleksand...
Despite what ppl think, the import change is mostly not due to tariffs, as it was still traded mostly under the previous tariffs, but because of
a) trade in gold (risk hedging)
b) lower import of medicine and related (created stockpile in March-July)
a) trade in gold (risk hedging)
b) lower import of medicine and related (created stockpile in March-July)
November 20, 2025 at 7:33 AM
Despite what ppl think, the import change is mostly not due to tariffs, as it was still traded mostly under the previous tariffs, but because of
a) trade in gold (risk hedging)
b) lower import of medicine and related (created stockpile in March-July)
a) trade in gold (risk hedging)
b) lower import of medicine and related (created stockpile in March-July)
The US released trade data for August:
Exports $179.7B
Imports $262.6B
Trade Balance -$82.9B
Month-over-Month (vs July 2025):
Exports changed by 2.62%
Imports changed by -10.13%
Year-over-Year (vs August 2024):
Exports changed by -0.25%
Imports changed by -5.29%
Top countries:
Exports $179.7B
Imports $262.6B
Trade Balance -$82.9B
Month-over-Month (vs July 2025):
Exports changed by 2.62%
Imports changed by -10.13%
Year-over-Year (vs August 2024):
Exports changed by -0.25%
Imports changed by -5.29%
Top countries:
November 20, 2025 at 7:33 AM
The US released trade data for August:
Exports $179.7B
Imports $262.6B
Trade Balance -$82.9B
Month-over-Month (vs July 2025):
Exports changed by 2.62%
Imports changed by -10.13%
Year-over-Year (vs August 2024):
Exports changed by -0.25%
Imports changed by -5.29%
Top countries:
Exports $179.7B
Imports $262.6B
Trade Balance -$82.9B
Month-over-Month (vs July 2025):
Exports changed by 2.62%
Imports changed by -10.13%
Year-over-Year (vs August 2024):
Exports changed by -0.25%
Imports changed by -5.29%
Top countries:
In two months, the so-called Special Military Operation will surpass the duration of the Great Patriotic War of 1941-1945. During that war, the Soviet Union, where Russians and Ukrainians fought together, shifted the frontline from Moscow and the Caucasus to Berlin.
November 11, 2025 at 10:53 AM
In two months, the so-called Special Military Operation will surpass the duration of the Great Patriotic War of 1941-1945. During that war, the Soviet Union, where Russians and Ukrainians fought together, shifted the frontline from Moscow and the Caucasus to Berlin.
Taiwan’s exports hit a record $61.8B in October, a 49.7% YoY increase, driven by global AI demand. This highlights Taiwan’s key role in the AI supply chain. #Trade #Economics
November 10, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Taiwan’s exports hit a record $61.8B in October, a 49.7% YoY increase, driven by global AI demand. This highlights Taiwan’s key role in the AI supply chain. #Trade #Economics
Socialist woke-virus president of the US is regulating beef prices via DOJ
November 9, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Socialist woke-virus president of the US is regulating beef prices via DOJ
DJT sends cryptic signals to his supporters. Should we worry more?
November 5, 2025 at 9:53 AM
DJT sends cryptic signals to his supporters. Should we worry more?
U.S. manufacturing just posted a PMI of 48.7% — still contracting for the 8th straight month. Exports & imports both shrinking, domestic demand weak, tariffs and uncertainty clouding everything. #manufacturing #economy #tariffs
November 4, 2025 at 9:58 AM
U.S. manufacturing just posted a PMI of 48.7% — still contracting for the 8th straight month. Exports & imports both shrinking, domestic demand weak, tariffs and uncertainty clouding everything. #manufacturing #economy #tariffs
Musk is blackmailing Tesla shareholders if they do not agree to a 1T USD compensation scheme
Based on my out-of-date knowledge of game theory, a median shareholder is facing two options: do not agree and take a hit losing X%<100% vs agree and lose 100%. The choice is clear IMHO
Based on my out-of-date knowledge of game theory, a median shareholder is facing two options: do not agree and take a hit losing X%<100% vs agree and lose 100%. The choice is clear IMHO
October 27, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Musk is blackmailing Tesla shareholders if they do not agree to a 1T USD compensation scheme
Based on my out-of-date knowledge of game theory, a median shareholder is facing two options: do not agree and take a hit losing X%<100% vs agree and lose 100%. The choice is clear IMHO
Based on my out-of-date knowledge of game theory, a median shareholder is facing two options: do not agree and take a hit losing X%<100% vs agree and lose 100%. The choice is clear IMHO
A tunnel between Alaska and Russia would be the most useless waste of public money one can imagine.
Anyone in the US who plays along with this ridiculous psyop by Dmitriev is a clown or on Putin's payroll. So, who is it, Congresswoman Luna?
Anyone in the US who plays along with this ridiculous psyop by Dmitriev is a clown or on Putin's payroll. So, who is it, Congresswoman Luna?
October 26, 2025 at 3:47 PM
A tunnel between Alaska and Russia would be the most useless waste of public money one can imagine.
Anyone in the US who plays along with this ridiculous psyop by Dmitriev is a clown or on Putin's payroll. So, who is it, Congresswoman Luna?
Anyone in the US who plays along with this ridiculous psyop by Dmitriev is a clown or on Putin's payroll. So, who is it, Congresswoman Luna?
Jeffery Sacks is Putin's agent of influence. It is really sad he got so much publicity, badmouthing Ukraine.
Why? He is not a political scientist or historian; he has zero expertise on Ukraine, but he shows his face everywhere talking about Maidan and Ukraine.
Why? He is not a political scientist or historian; he has zero expertise on Ukraine, but he shows his face everywhere talking about Maidan and Ukraine.
October 25, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Jeffery Sacks is Putin's agent of influence. It is really sad he got so much publicity, badmouthing Ukraine.
Why? He is not a political scientist or historian; he has zero expertise on Ukraine, but he shows his face everywhere talking about Maidan and Ukraine.
Why? He is not a political scientist or historian; he has zero expertise on Ukraine, but he shows his face everywhere talking about Maidan and Ukraine.
Moscow quacking...
October 24, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Moscow quacking...
Putin started a war which killed tens of thousands, crippled hundreds of thousands, and forced millions to leave Russia He needs more cannon fodder, so he sends his minions with the message that Russians need more babies. Implicitly - to fight never never-ending war.
Dispeakable and horrendous!
Dispeakable and horrendous!
October 24, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Putin started a war which killed tens of thousands, crippled hundreds of thousands, and forced millions to leave Russia He needs more cannon fodder, so he sends his minions with the message that Russians need more babies. Implicitly - to fight never never-ending war.
Dispeakable and horrendous!
Dispeakable and horrendous!
Interesting report on regional productivity in the UK. Bristol, Manchester and Leeds are leading in productivity growth, while London and Birmingham are lagging. For Midlands, which are an export-oriented cluster, Brexit and the US-China trade war are strong negative factors.
October 20, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Interesting report on regional productivity in the UK. Bristol, Manchester and Leeds are leading in productivity growth, while London and Birmingham are lagging. For Midlands, which are an export-oriented cluster, Brexit and the US-China trade war are strong negative factors.
📉 In September 2025, for the first time in a decade, the US is no longer China’s top export destination, replaced by Hong Kong
🇨🇳📦 Exports to the US have stayed below the 12-month moving average for seven consecutive months, marking what looks like lasting realignment
#Trade #China #US #Decoupling
🇨🇳📦 Exports to the US have stayed below the 12-month moving average for seven consecutive months, marking what looks like lasting realignment
#Trade #China #US #Decoupling
October 20, 2025 at 10:53 AM
📉 In September 2025, for the first time in a decade, the US is no longer China’s top export destination, replaced by Hong Kong
🇨🇳📦 Exports to the US have stayed below the 12-month moving average for seven consecutive months, marking what looks like lasting realignment
#Trade #China #US #Decoupling
🇨🇳📦 Exports to the US have stayed below the 12-month moving average for seven consecutive months, marking what looks like lasting realignment
#Trade #China #US #Decoupling
Unsurprisingly, chips are coming from Taiwan and mostly consumed by US and China. There is huge boom in countries centered around China -- strong tandem China - Hong Kong, for example. Europe is not running anywhere near the top.
October 20, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Unsurprisingly, chips are coming from Taiwan and mostly consumed by US and China. There is huge boom in countries centered around China -- strong tandem China - Hong Kong, for example. Europe is not running anywhere near the top.
Oren Cass says that it is good to be a declining empire. But it is not that great
A ‘doctrine of reciprocity' doesn’t survive contact with reality. If the US retreats from alliances and partnerships, it shrinks. Its market and influence become dispensable
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
A ‘doctrine of reciprocity' doesn’t survive contact with reality. If the US retreats from alliances and partnerships, it shrinks. Its market and influence become dispensable
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
October 18, 2025 at 8:02 AM
Oren Cass says that it is good to be a declining empire. But it is not that great
A ‘doctrine of reciprocity' doesn’t survive contact with reality. If the US retreats from alliances and partnerships, it shrinks. Its market and influence become dispensable
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
A ‘doctrine of reciprocity' doesn’t survive contact with reality. If the US retreats from alliances and partnerships, it shrinks. Its market and influence become dispensable
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
UK goods exports to the US fell by £0.7bn in August alone.
It’s a brutal squeeze: Trump’s tariffs hitting one flank and Brexit-driven EU decoupling on the other. #UKTrade #Tariffs #BrexitImpact
It’s a brutal squeeze: Trump’s tariffs hitting one flank and Brexit-driven EU decoupling on the other. #UKTrade #Tariffs #BrexitImpact
October 16, 2025 at 6:31 AM
UK goods exports to the US fell by £0.7bn in August alone.
It’s a brutal squeeze: Trump’s tariffs hitting one flank and Brexit-driven EU decoupling on the other. #UKTrade #Tariffs #BrexitImpact
It’s a brutal squeeze: Trump’s tariffs hitting one flank and Brexit-driven EU decoupling on the other. #UKTrade #Tariffs #BrexitImpact