Dan O'Hara
@skeuomorphology.bsky.social
910 followers 460 following 740 posts
Runs the UK Covid PCR positivity map: https://jamestindall.info/skeuomorphology/ladb_covid/index.html Otherwise: literary history | philosophy of tech | EXTREME METAPHORS: Interviews with JG Ballard http://amazon.co.uk/dp/B007QOXKHI | www.danohara.co.uk
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skeuomorphology.bsky.social
Shrewbury & Telford NHS Trust reintroducing masks as of today.
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
The whole schedule is geared around flu, and for that it makes sense (flu will likely peak in late Dec/early Jan).

But for covid? A lot of trouble could be averted if the timing of vaccines were informed by the data.
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
NOIDs data up to yesterday.

It's the most current data we get, good for indicating the trend but poor for tracking levels.

When Thursday's map comes out, levels will certainly be higher than last autumn's wave.

Feels like the limited NHS vaccines are starting a bit late.
Reposted by Dan O'Hara
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
The PCR positivity map is out, and it's evident that everywhere is seeing a significant surge.

UKHSA positivity has risen to 11.83%.

Adjusted for non-reporting areas, we make that 13.77%.

jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...

1/8
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
Indeed.

I've been hunting for some evidence that it might be an error, but there's no good reason to suspect it is, and some evidence that it isn't, insofar as the data can tell us such things.
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
Quite right, David! Thank you - remiss of me not to mention it.
Reposted by Dan O'Hara
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
I haven't seen anything quite like that Sheffield spike before. Even Tyneside & Teesside have been yoyoing up & down to increasing levels so far.
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
We're still working on including Scotland on the map - it's quite challenging technically, I'm afraid.

In lieu of the map, here's positivity by area for this week.

8/8
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
This wave is set to be worse than last autumn's.

It may be already, as this data covers up to last Friday.

I do not like what I see in Sheffield and elsewhere.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think we need sequencing urgently.

7/8
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
Tyneside seems to be level-ish, but Teeside is rocketing even further from an already high level.

The same is true in Cumbria.

5/8
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
The map gets darker the further north you go.

Sheffield does a lot of testing.

Look at their graph.

I'd normally be sceptical of such data, but surrounding areas are all v high and climbing nearly as sharply.

4/8
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
We're starting to see areas in the Midlands increase the amount of testing they're doing again.

Herefordshire, Worcestershire (and Rutland on few but not meaninglessly few tests) look the worst hit; Dudley and Northampton not far behind.

3/8
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
Most areas that weren't reporting in the south have started again, except Kent and E Sussex.

Even Southampton (who issued an avoid A&E notice on Tuesday) have reported.

In fact, this week they've reported all their data going back to March - it confirms what I suspected.

2/8
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
The PCR positivity map is out, and it's evident that everywhere is seeing a significant surge.

UKHSA positivity has risen to 11.83%.

Adjusted for non-reporting areas, we make that 13.77%.

jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...

1/8
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
Hah! Thanks Roger - my bad. I'd duplicated last year's flu sheet but not changed the date.

Here's the current one. Almost the same exact same week as flu kicked off last year, & in the same way.
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
Oh, plus this

It's not even October yet

bsky.app/profile/uhsf...
uhsft.bsky.social
⚠️ Our Emergency Department (ED) is extremely busy. Please only come to ED in the case of life-or-limb-threatening situations.

Other services for urgent but non-life-threatening care are the Urgent Treatment Centres at RSH Hospital and Lymington New Forest Hospital, or NHS111.
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
The map will update with the latest data on Thursday

We will be expanding with the increased data available to us as soon as we can

Until we can do so, I'll cover those additional data in my weekly threads

jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...

3/3
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
NOIDs data up to Sunday shows why the Beeb might be covering this so prominently

(in addition, flu season has definitely started. Time to get get jabs if you're eligible)

2/3
Reposted by Dan O'Hara
meneither.bsky.social
Wie verteilen sich Infektionen in Deutschland? Wo treten Hotspots auf? Schlägt die #Wiesn Wellen? Antworten gibt die neue Landkreis-Karte!

covidisnotover.info/aktuelle-cor...

#CovidIsNotOver #SarsCoV2 #Covid #Corona #LongCovid
Reposted by Dan O'Hara
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
The PCR positivity map is out, and little has changed from last week.

UKHSA's positivity stat has remained around 10.3%.

12.3% is our estimate of positivity, adjusted for the areas that are not reporting this week.

jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...

1/9
skeuomorphology.bsky.social
And a little bit of news:

We're hoping to be able to add Scotland to the map very soon.

It's been incredibly difficult to get the data we needed, but we think we've cracked it.

For now, here are area positivity rates up to 11 days ago.

9/9