sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale
@sophiehale.bsky.social
2.4K followers 68 following 18 posts
Principal Economist leading on trade and intergenerational fairness at the Resolution Foundation.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · 26d
So overall July trade looked steady, but the big picture: already weak goods exports + high trade uncertainty = trouble. The extent to which the US deal can alleviate this is still to be seen.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · 26d
But what is more worrying is that the weak goods performance this year is nothing new. UK goods exports have continued to considerably underperform the rest of the G7. With the UKs overall export performance buoyed by a much stronger services performance.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · 26d
The weakness of exports to the US was felt across manufacturing sectors - with both chemicals and cars exports down more than 20% on this period last year.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · 26d
But the impact of US tariffs seems to be materialising. UK exports to the US since April (when new tariffs were initially applied to UK goods) were 14% below their level over the same period last year (compared to just 4% lower with the world).
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · 26d
Global trade uncertainty has been unprecedently high, due to the tariff announcement coming from the US. And so a disruption to goods trade is unsurprising. Of course, for the UK, high trade uncertainty is nothing new, with years of high uncertainty following the EU referendum.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · 26d
But taking a step back to look at year to date where does this leave us? Despite the growth in July, goods export volumes are down 1% on last year. Meanwhile services export volumes have grown 5.5% and imports by 8.2%.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · 26d
Starting with monthly trade volumes, total goods (excluding precious metals) exports grew by 5.2%, driven mainly by non-EU growth. Goods imports also grew by 4.1%. Services trade on the other hand was weak in July, with exports falling by 0.4% on the June.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · 26d
Exciting news: I’m back from maternity leave👶and so I'm diving straight in with today’s July 2025 trade data release. But after a few months away, I’ll also step back to see how trade has evolved so far this year.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · Apr 11
Still a week left to apply for this fantastic opportunity to work at the Resolution Foundation!
resfoundation.bsky.social
Resolution Foundation @resfoundation.bsky.social · Apr 9
🚨 We're hiring!🚨

🏠 We're looking for a thoughtful and committed individual to lead our work on housing🏠

To find out more➡️ buff.ly/gpUx9o2
Advert for a Senior Economist or Senior Research and Policy Analyst. Details: Role is too lead on housing work, Apply by 08.59am on 17 April 2025 Salary of £55,330 - £68,250 p.a.
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Reposted by Sophie Hale
resfoundation.bsky.social
Resolution Foundation @resfoundation.bsky.social · Nov 21
🚨 New Research🚨

In the sixth Intergenerational Audit for the UK, part of the @ConnectingGens research programme, @mollybroome.bsky.social , @sophiehale.bsky.social and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social evaluate the economic importance of intergenerational exchanges.

➡️ https://buff.ly/4hYPPb9
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Reposted by Sophie Hale
tom-clark.bsky.social
Tom Clark @tom-clark.bsky.social · Nov 23
Enjoyed working on this “inter generational audit” with @hannahslaughter.bsky.social @sophiehale.bsky.social & @mollybroome.bsky.social

The role of extended families in care, money & housing is increasing, but also increasingly strained

www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
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Reposted by Sophie Hale
emilyfry.bsky.social
Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Dec 4
‼️New report out today 'Trading blows' with @sophiehale.bsky.social

We reflect on the UK's trade landscape post-Brexit and Covid - e.g. that exports of some highly regulated professional services – like accounting & tax, engineering, and legal – are growing slower than the average service sector.
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Reposted by Sophie Hale
profjacob.bsky.social
Jacob Öberg @profjacob.bsky.social · Dec 4
🚨🚨 I know there has been a lot of #brexit posting today but this is another truly fascinating @resfoundation.bsky.social report by @sophiehale.bsky.social & @emilyfry.bsky.social with the ominous title "Trading Blows". Key insights are worth restating 🧵
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Trading blows • Resolution Foundation
Recently the UK has faced tough times in trade, juggling twin shocks of Brexit and Covid. While service exports have stayed strong, goods trade has struggled. With a possible further disruption to goo...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
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Reposted by Sophie Hale
profjacob.bsky.social
Jacob Öberg @profjacob.bsky.social · Sep 20
🚨🚨 Brexit is ‘stifling’ exports and imports". Report by economists at Aston University finds that the EU-UK TCA has led to ‘profound and ongoing’ impact on goods flow. Great write-up by @pmdfoster.bsky.social of solid research on the negative effects of #brexit on trade. 🧵
www.ft.com/content/21b2...
Brexit is ‘stifling’ exports and imports, report finds
UK trade deal with EU has led to ‘profound and ongoing’ impact on goods flow
www.ft.com
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · Sep 11
Overall July trade data unwinds goods export growth seen in June, leaving UK trade following its post-Brexit pattern: broad-based weak goods trade but relatively resilient services trade.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · Sep 11
And worryingly this goods weakness continues to be pretty widespread across sectors – with both high value-added machinery and transport and chemicals sectors exports falling to both the EU and non-EU.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · Sep 11
Revisiting last month’s quarterly trade data though, the UK’s weak goods export performance continues to stand out: the gap between the UK and the rest of the G7 continues to widen, leaving the UK the only G7 country with goods export volumes still below Q4-2018 levels.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · Sep 11
This year that leaves UK trade values looking substantially weaker than Canada and the US, but stronger than Germany which has also struggled to reinvigorate its goods exports.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · Sep 11
Comparing the year to date with last year we see goods trade volumes remain down, led by weaker goods exports to the EU (which fell 5.4%). Meanwhile, services trade volumes continue to show reasonable growth on last year.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · Sep 11
But this reversal of the goods export growth in June and lackluster output performance is disappointing, given PMIs suggest that UK manufacturing has turned a corner – so far this doesn’t seem to be appearing in the data. x.com/JamesSmithRF...
x.com
x.com
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · Sep 11
This aligns with what we are seeing in monthly GDP, with services sectors growth outweighing larger falls in production output.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · Sep 11
Monthly trade dominated by very weak goods export volumes in July, to both EU and non-EU partners. Goods exports down 11.5% in July, reversing substantial growth seen last month (+11% in June). Services trade continues to grow, partially offsetting weaker goods trade.
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sophiehale.bsky.social
Sophie Hale @sophiehale.bsky.social · Sep 11
Monthly ONS July trade data weak with monthly trade volumes down by 2.6%, driven by particularly weak monthly export volume of goods. A short thread.
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