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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · 11d

Anyway, here's a longer version of this argument ... truthandcons.substack.com/p/are-democr...

Are Democrats Too Liberal?

Not in the places where it matters most. Also, I'm not THAT Michael Cohen

truthandcons.substack.com

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · 11d

I'd argue Republicans have underperformed so badly in swing states because they nominate extremist candidates, don't moderate their policies, and fail to appeal to swing voters.

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · 11d

I'd argue Democrats have done this by doing precisely what pundits claim they need to do to win back the Senate -- moderating their policies, running to the center on hot-button GOP-dominant issues like immigration

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · 11d

The bottom line here is that in the most narrowly divided states in the country, Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates dominate and have been far more effective at both maintaining their political base but also winning over moderate/centrist/and split ticket voters.

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · 11d

b) The dropoff in male voters when Democrats nominate a female presidential candidate. Since the divides are so narrow in swing states, that leakage is magnified in ways that wouldn’t be the case in blue or red states.

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · 11d

Indeed, one of my favorite data points from the 2024 election is that Harris got more votes than Democratic Senate candidates in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania ... and Democratic Senate candidates still won in MI and NV

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · 11d

Trump’s success in these states is IMHO due to two sui generis factors a) Trump-only voters who support the president but don’t feel the same affinity for other Republicans ...

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · 11d

The obvious rejoinder to this argument is that Trump has won 14 of 21 elections in swing states over the last three presidential elections.

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · 11d

In governor’s races, the Democrats are just as dominant: they hold five of the seven governor’s mansions. Even when it comes to state attorneys general, Democrats hold a dominant position. In 5 of the seven swing states, Democrats hold that job.

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · 11d

Most notably, Democrats won four of the five Senate races in swing states in the 2024 election, even as Trump won all seven swing states. There are ten Democratic senators in states that Trump won in 2024. There is one Republican senator in a state that Harris won in 2024.

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · 11d

Since 2016, Democrats have won every Senate race in Nevada, Michigan, and all 4 Senate races in Arizona. Since 2020, they’ve won 3 separate Senate races in Georgia. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the two parties have gone 2-2, and Republicans have run the table in North Carolina.

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · 11d

And the Democratic track record in swing states is remarkably solid. In the seven swing states, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, Democrats control 10 of 14 Senate seats (70 percent).

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · 11d

Swing states offer a test case for how successful the two parties are in places where a) they aren't swimming against the tide of partisanship & b) there is a closely divided electorate. Also, it tells us how effective the two parties are at winning over the political center

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · 11d

One of the strange things about the argument made by Ezra Klein, Adam Jentleson, Matt Yglesias and others that Dems need to moderate their policies and expand the Senate map is that it oddly ignores how remarkably successful Dems are in winning statewide races in swing states 🧵

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · Sep 5

Donald Trump is deeply unpopular. It's the single most important development in American politics today truthandcons.substack.com/p/our-deeply...

Our Deeply Unpopular President

The numbers don't lie. Donald Trump is unpopular and the political consequences for him and his party could be dire.

truthandcons.substack.com

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · Jun 9

The political conventional wisdom is that violence on the streets of LA will provide a political boost for President Trump. Here’s why the conventional wisdom is probably wrong. truthandcons.substack.com/p/los-angele...

Los Angeles Agonistes

As violence and political protest unfolds in LA, some political pundits see the sit there as a net positive for Trump ... I'm not so sure.

truthandcons.substack.com

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Reposted by Michael A. Cohen

MSNBC @msnbc.com · May 29

OPINION by @speechboy71.bsky.social:

Michael highlights a new report suggesting a simple reason for the Democrats’ 2024 loss.

“Female support for the Democratic ticket was constant throughout these four elections; only male support for Democrats fluctuated.”

READ MORE:

Opinion | The uncomfortable truth about Democrats' problem reaching male voters

The numbers tell a sobering tale.

www.msnbc.com

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Reposted by Michael A. Cohen

Joe Sudbay @joesudbay.bsky.social · Apr 30

this was a great conversation between @gregsargent.bsky.social and @speechboy71.bsky.social about the role of Stephen Miller

This was on full display last night during the interview with Terry Moran. Trump made it clear he's not in control and just repeats the lies he's fed

Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · Apr 29

Trump's top people are working to keep him in a state of delusion:

*Trump's pollster rushes to proclaim awful NYT/WaPo polls wrong

*Stephen Miller lying to Trump that SCOTUS sided w/him against Abrego Garcia

On the pod, @speechboy71.bsky.social explains this well:
newrepublic.com/article/1945...

Trump’s Fury at Bad Polls Boils Over as Allies Rush to Calm Him Down

As Trump’s anger over his terrible polling numbers grows, a journalist explains why it’s so unnerving that Trump’s advisers are now actively deluding him about his disastrous reign.

newrepublic.com

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Reposted by Michael A. Cohen

Ryan Goodman @rgoodlaw.bsky.social · Apr 29

Indeed, something odd going on here.

Read @gregsargent.bsky.social exchange with @speechboy71.bsky.social⤵️

Note: DOJ has completely mischaracterized (and even misquoted) the Supreme Court order in filings before district court in Abrego Garcia's case.

And here's the Q&A with President Trump:

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Reposted by Michael A. Cohen

Joshua Kolb @joshuakolb.bsky.social · Apr 29

This convo bw @gregsargent.bsky.social & @speechboy71.bsky.social gets at the imp dynamic we explained in our @msnbc.com piece, and the prominent role Stephen Miller is playing in this mess

DOJ’s filings after Miller’s comments become more recalcitrant and misleading

www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

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Reposted by Michael A. Cohen

The DSR Network @thedsrnetwork.bsky.social · Apr 29

On The Daily Blast, @gregsargent.bsky.social talks to @speechboy71.bsky.social. He explains how we know Trump’s aides are keeping him in a state of delusion, and why that’s heading to an alarming place. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

The Daily Blast: Trump’s Fury at Bad Polls Goes Nuclear as Allies Rush to Calm Him Down

Podcast Episode · The DSR Network · 04/29/2025 · 21m

podcasts.apple.com

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Reposted by Michael A. Cohen

Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · Apr 28

Donald Trump’s recent interview with Time magazine suggests that he is doing the policy bidding of Stephen Miller and is simply unaware that his administration is breaking the law in the Kilmar Abrego Garcia deportation case. truthandcons.substack.com/p/is-stephen...

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Reposted by Michael A. Cohen

Sam Rosenfeld @samrosenfeld.bsky.social · Apr 28

If we're going to have a constitutional crisis let's have a proper one where none of the principals are confused about what's happening!

Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · Apr 28

Donald Trump’s recent interview with Time magazine suggests that he is doing the policy bidding of Stephen Miller and is simply unaware that his administration is breaking the law in the Kilmar Abrego Garcia deportation case. truthandcons.substack.com/p/is-stephen...

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Michael A. Cohen @speechboy71.bsky.social · Apr 28

Donald Trump’s recent interview with Time magazine suggests that he is doing the policy bidding of Stephen Miller and is simply unaware that his administration is breaking the law in the Kilmar Abrego Garcia deportation case. truthandcons.substack.com/p/is-stephen...

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Reposted by Michael A. Cohen

MSNBC @msnbc.com · Apr 27

OPINION by @speechboy71.bsky.social:

Michael writes that while Republicans define themselves as conservatives, they have ‘discarded any notion of actual conservatism.’

“The GOP is the party of Trump — and defined not by ideology, but rather clownish cultism.”

READ MORE:

Opinion | Trump’s tariff ‘dealmaking’ reveals how the GOP has betrayed real conservatism

The president has fostered the kind of economic and political uncertainty that Republicans used to rail against.

www.msnbc.com

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