Stefan Schubert
@stefanschubert.bsky.social
I run The Update newsletter: www.update.news
Book: academic.oup.com/book/56384
Book: academic.oup.com/book/56384
Everyday crime has seen an extremely steep decline in the US since the 1980s/1990s.
US robberies have fallen by 80% and burglaries by almost 90% since their peaks.
From my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/i/185179290/...
US robberies have fallen by 80% and burglaries by almost 90% since their peaks.
From my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/i/185179290/...
January 20, 2026 at 5:59 PM
Everyday crime has seen an extremely steep decline in the US since the 1980s/1990s.
US robberies have fallen by 80% and burglaries by almost 90% since their peaks.
From my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/i/185179290/...
US robberies have fallen by 80% and burglaries by almost 90% since their peaks.
From my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/i/185179290/...
Trump's net approval rating at -19%, a record low for the second term, according to @economist.com
January 20, 2026 at 5:27 PM
Trump's net approval rating at -19%, a record low for the second term, according to @economist.com
In my newsletter:
Chinese fertility is now 0.98, much lower than during the one-child policy.
I think it's due to cultural changes that are affecting the whole world, and especially East Asia.
Also why Waymos are safe, solar, a 90% fall in US burglaries, and more.
www.update.news/p/chinese-fe...
Chinese fertility is now 0.98, much lower than during the one-child policy.
I think it's due to cultural changes that are affecting the whole world, and especially East Asia.
Also why Waymos are safe, solar, a 90% fall in US burglaries, and more.
www.update.news/p/chinese-fe...
January 20, 2026 at 2:10 PM
In my newsletter:
Chinese fertility is now 0.98, much lower than during the one-child policy.
I think it's due to cultural changes that are affecting the whole world, and especially East Asia.
Also why Waymos are safe, solar, a 90% fall in US burglaries, and more.
www.update.news/p/chinese-fe...
Chinese fertility is now 0.98, much lower than during the one-child policy.
I think it's due to cultural changes that are affecting the whole world, and especially East Asia.
Also why Waymos are safe, solar, a 90% fall in US burglaries, and more.
www.update.news/p/chinese-fe...
In my newsletter: why are many countries facing a pension crisis?
Many commentators blame the old, but that's overly simplistic.
Every generation contributes to high pension spending, in part because we'll benefit from it ourselves one day.
www.update.news/p/every-gene...
->
Many commentators blame the old, but that's overly simplistic.
Every generation contributes to high pension spending, in part because we'll benefit from it ourselves one day.
www.update.news/p/every-gene...
->
January 19, 2026 at 2:17 PM
In my newsletter: why are many countries facing a pension crisis?
Many commentators blame the old, but that's overly simplistic.
Every generation contributes to high pension spending, in part because we'll benefit from it ourselves one day.
www.update.news/p/every-gene...
->
Many commentators blame the old, but that's overly simplistic.
Every generation contributes to high pension spending, in part because we'll benefit from it ourselves one day.
www.update.news/p/every-gene...
->
Not quite the same thing; I don't think Hamsun was being purely strategic
January 16, 2026 at 5:55 PM
Not quite the same thing; I don't think Hamsun was being purely strategic
But in fact, charity experts estimate it to be a factor of 100.
We should be much better at paying attention to these large differences in effectiveness.
We should be much better at paying attention to these large differences in effectiveness.
January 15, 2026 at 2:36 PM
But in fact, charity experts estimate it to be a factor of 100.
We should be much better at paying attention to these large differences in effectiveness.
We should be much better at paying attention to these large differences in effectiveness.
You also see this in charity and healthcare.
Most people think that the difference in effectiveness between different charities is pretty small.
Most people think that the difference in effectiveness between different charities is pretty small.
January 15, 2026 at 2:36 PM
You also see this in charity and healthcare.
Most people think that the difference in effectiveness between different charities is pretty small.
Most people think that the difference in effectiveness between different charities is pretty small.
We often underestimate differences in effectiveness between different solutions.
There's no natural tendency for them to be similarly effective. Often they differ hugely!
Like the difference between solar and biofuels.
🧵based on my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/p/the-libera...
There's no natural tendency for them to be similarly effective. Often they differ hugely!
Like the difference between solar and biofuels.
🧵based on my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/p/the-libera...
January 15, 2026 at 2:36 PM
We often underestimate differences in effectiveness between different solutions.
There's no natural tendency for them to be similarly effective. Often they differ hugely!
Like the difference between solar and biofuels.
🧵based on my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/p/the-libera...
There's no natural tendency for them to be similarly effective. Often they differ hugely!
Like the difference between solar and biofuels.
🧵based on my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/p/the-libera...
Some hope that preferences for human interactions will save jobs from automation, but I think we often prefer being served by robots.
From my latest issue, where I also cover progress on crime, AI forecasting progress, belief in Anthropic, and much else.
www.update.news/p/the-prefer...
From my latest issue, where I also cover progress on crime, AI forecasting progress, belief in Anthropic, and much else.
www.update.news/p/the-prefer...
January 13, 2026 at 2:27 PM
Some hope that preferences for human interactions will save jobs from automation, but I think we often prefer being served by robots.
From my latest issue, where I also cover progress on crime, AI forecasting progress, belief in Anthropic, and much else.
www.update.news/p/the-prefer...
From my latest issue, where I also cover progress on crime, AI forecasting progress, belief in Anthropic, and much else.
www.update.news/p/the-prefer...
Social media is widely thought to harm public discourse, but there's some reason for optimism about AI.
From the latest issue of my newsletter, where I also report on forecasts on Iran and Greenland, the growing demand for social skills, and much else.
www.update.news/p/social-med...
From the latest issue of my newsletter, where I also report on forecasts on Iran and Greenland, the growing demand for social skills, and much else.
www.update.news/p/social-med...
January 12, 2026 at 4:08 PM
Social media is widely thought to harm public discourse, but there's some reason for optimism about AI.
From the latest issue of my newsletter, where I also report on forecasts on Iran and Greenland, the growing demand for social skills, and much else.
www.update.news/p/social-med...
From the latest issue of my newsletter, where I also report on forecasts on Iran and Greenland, the growing demand for social skills, and much else.
www.update.news/p/social-med...
Polymarket estimates a 55% chance that Khamenei is out in 2026.
And as I cover in my newsletter, Sentinel forecasters estimates a 42% chance the regime itself will fall.
www.update.news/p/the-quixot...
And as I cover in my newsletter, Sentinel forecasters estimates a 42% chance the regime itself will fall.
www.update.news/p/the-quixot...
January 9, 2026 at 9:49 AM
Polymarket estimates a 55% chance that Khamenei is out in 2026.
And as I cover in my newsletter, Sentinel forecasters estimates a 42% chance the regime itself will fall.
www.update.news/p/the-quixot...
And as I cover in my newsletter, Sentinel forecasters estimates a 42% chance the regime itself will fall.
www.update.news/p/the-quixot...
There’s a narrative that young US college grads are being replaced by AI en masse, but unemployment is also rising among young high school grads - suggesting this is more about general economic weakness.
This and much else in the latest issue of my newsletter, now at update.news.
This and much else in the latest issue of my newsletter, now at update.news.
January 7, 2026 at 1:22 PM
There’s a narrative that young US college grads are being replaced by AI en masse, but unemployment is also rising among young high school grads - suggesting this is more about general economic weakness.
This and much else in the latest issue of my newsletter, now at update.news.
This and much else in the latest issue of my newsletter, now at update.news.
Yeah, I put it as deadly at first but @karlpettersson.bsky.social made a good point. But sure, it can be discussed.
January 3, 2026 at 1:59 PM
Yeah, I put it as deadly at first but @karlpettersson.bsky.social made a good point. But sure, it can be discussed.
(In brief is two stories)
January 3, 2026 at 1:48 PM
(In brief is two stories)
In 1998, Americans expected more to have changed by 2025 than has actually changed. We often overestimate how quickly the world changes.
From the latest issue of The Update, where I also cover ten other stories (next post).
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-is-cri...
From the latest issue of The Update, where I also cover ten other stories (next post).
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-is-cri...
January 3, 2026 at 1:47 PM
In 1998, Americans expected more to have changed by 2025 than has actually changed. We often overestimate how quickly the world changes.
From the latest issue of The Update, where I also cover ten other stories (next post).
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-is-cri...
From the latest issue of The Update, where I also cover ten other stories (next post).
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-is-cri...
I've started a newsletter, The Update.
Today I cover how journalists should use social science, EU-US unemployment convergence, the definition of AGI, and more.
Please subscribe!
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/the-shrink...
Today I cover how journalists should use social science, EU-US unemployment convergence, the definition of AGI, and more.
Please subscribe!
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/the-shrink...
December 19, 2025 at 12:25 PM
I've started a newsletter, The Update.
Today I cover how journalists should use social science, EU-US unemployment convergence, the definition of AGI, and more.
Please subscribe!
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/the-shrink...
Today I cover how journalists should use social science, EU-US unemployment convergence, the definition of AGI, and more.
Please subscribe!
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/the-shrink...
"It has gone largely unnoticed that time spent on social media peaked in 2022 and has since gone into steady decline."
By @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/a072...
By @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/a072...
October 3, 2025 at 12:04 PM
"It has gone largely unnoticed that time spent on social media peaked in 2022 and has since gone into steady decline."
By @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/a072...
By @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/a072...
"French pensioners now have higher incomes than working-age adults" - extraordinary
By @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/d419...
By @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/d419...
September 13, 2025 at 10:31 AM
"French pensioners now have higher incomes than working-age adults" - extraordinary
By @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/d419...
By @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/d419...
Financial Times analysis: US jobs at a high risk from generative AI have not been more likely to shed young workers since ChatGPT launched
www.ft.com/content/99b6...
www.ft.com/content/99b6...
July 24, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Financial Times analysis: US jobs at a high risk from generative AI have not been more likely to shed young workers since ChatGPT launched
www.ft.com/content/99b6...
www.ft.com/content/99b6...
Study finds that Americans' policy views don't relate to basic economic literacy, and that such literacy doesn't make people think like economists.
Also if Democrats and Republicans had had perfect basic economic literacy, their policy views would diverge.
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/KRKRA...
Also if Democrats and Republicans had had perfect basic economic literacy, their policy views would diverge.
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/KRKRA...
July 10, 2025 at 6:52 AM
Study finds that Americans' policy views don't relate to basic economic literacy, and that such literacy doesn't make people think like economists.
Also if Democrats and Republicans had had perfect basic economic literacy, their policy views would diverge.
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/KRKRA...
Also if Democrats and Republicans had had perfect basic economic literacy, their policy views would diverge.
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/KRKRA...
Guess the nationality of the unnamed author of this
@economist.com article on "the Big Three" 🙃
@economist.com article on "the Big Three" 🙃
July 3, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Guess the nationality of the unnamed author of this
@economist.com article on "the Big Three" 🙃
@economist.com article on "the Big Three" 🙃
Following up on this (this is the author of the post)
July 3, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Following up on this (this is the author of the post)
In the 18th century, there was a real chance of death at any point in life, and there wasn't a big peak in old age.
It wasn't just higher infant mortality - the whole distribution was completely different.
inquisitivebird.xyz/p/the-rise-o...
It wasn't just higher infant mortality - the whole distribution was completely different.
inquisitivebird.xyz/p/the-rise-o...
July 2, 2025 at 8:08 PM
In the 18th century, there was a real chance of death at any point in life, and there wasn't a big peak in old age.
It wasn't just higher infant mortality - the whole distribution was completely different.
inquisitivebird.xyz/p/the-rise-o...
It wasn't just higher infant mortality - the whole distribution was completely different.
inquisitivebird.xyz/p/the-rise-o...