Stefan Schubert
@stefanschubert.bsky.social
I run The Update newsletter: www.update.news
Book: academic.oup.com/book/56384
Book: academic.oup.com/book/56384
Pinned
Our book on the psychology of effective altruism is now out.
The digital version is available for free: academic.oup.com/book/56384?l...
There's also an audiobook.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...
And you can save 30% on a physical copy if you use the code AUFLY30. global.oup.com/academic
The digital version is available for free: academic.oup.com/book/56384?l...
There's also an audiobook.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...
And you can save 30% on a physical copy if you use the code AUFLY30. global.oup.com/academic
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
We often underestimate differences in effectiveness between different solutions.
There's no natural tendency for them to be similarly effective. Often they differ hugely!
Like the difference between solar and biofuels.
🧵based on my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/p/the-libera...
There's no natural tendency for them to be similarly effective. Often they differ hugely!
Like the difference between solar and biofuels.
🧵based on my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/p/the-libera...
January 15, 2026 at 2:36 PM
We often underestimate differences in effectiveness between different solutions.
There's no natural tendency for them to be similarly effective. Often they differ hugely!
Like the difference between solar and biofuels.
🧵based on my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/p/the-libera...
There's no natural tendency for them to be similarly effective. Often they differ hugely!
Like the difference between solar and biofuels.
🧵based on my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/p/the-libera...
We often underestimate differences in effectiveness between different solutions.
There's no natural tendency for them to be similarly effective. Often they differ hugely!
Like the difference between solar and biofuels.
🧵based on my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/p/the-libera...
There's no natural tendency for them to be similarly effective. Often they differ hugely!
Like the difference between solar and biofuels.
🧵based on my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/p/the-libera...
January 15, 2026 at 2:36 PM
We often underestimate differences in effectiveness between different solutions.
There's no natural tendency for them to be similarly effective. Often they differ hugely!
Like the difference between solar and biofuels.
🧵based on my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/p/the-libera...
There's no natural tendency for them to be similarly effective. Often they differ hugely!
Like the difference between solar and biofuels.
🧵based on my latest newsletter:
www.update.news/p/the-libera...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
There’s a paradox around remote work. Jamie Dimon says it will kill productivity, while startups are hiring for remote roles. Who is right?
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
January 14, 2026 at 2:40 PM
There’s a paradox around remote work. Jamie Dimon says it will kill productivity, while startups are hiring for remote roles. Who is right?
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
Some hope that preferences for human interactions will save jobs from automation, but I think we often prefer being served by robots.
From my latest issue, where I also cover progress on crime, AI forecasting progress, belief in Anthropic, and much else.
www.update.news/p/the-prefer...
From my latest issue, where I also cover progress on crime, AI forecasting progress, belief in Anthropic, and much else.
www.update.news/p/the-prefer...
January 13, 2026 at 2:27 PM
Some hope that preferences for human interactions will save jobs from automation, but I think we often prefer being served by robots.
From my latest issue, where I also cover progress on crime, AI forecasting progress, belief in Anthropic, and much else.
www.update.news/p/the-prefer...
From my latest issue, where I also cover progress on crime, AI forecasting progress, belief in Anthropic, and much else.
www.update.news/p/the-prefer...
Some hope that preferences for human interactions will save jobs from automation, but I think we often prefer being served by robots.
From my latest issue, where I also cover progress on crime, AI forecasting progress, belief in Anthropic, and much else.
www.update.news/p/the-prefer...
From my latest issue, where I also cover progress on crime, AI forecasting progress, belief in Anthropic, and much else.
www.update.news/p/the-prefer...
January 13, 2026 at 2:27 PM
Some hope that preferences for human interactions will save jobs from automation, but I think we often prefer being served by robots.
From my latest issue, where I also cover progress on crime, AI forecasting progress, belief in Anthropic, and much else.
www.update.news/p/the-prefer...
From my latest issue, where I also cover progress on crime, AI forecasting progress, belief in Anthropic, and much else.
www.update.news/p/the-prefer...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
Social media is widely thought to harm public discourse, but there's some reason for optimism about AI.
From the latest issue of my newsletter, where I also report on forecasts on Iran and Greenland, the growing demand for social skills, and much else.
www.update.news/p/social-med...
From the latest issue of my newsletter, where I also report on forecasts on Iran and Greenland, the growing demand for social skills, and much else.
www.update.news/p/social-med...
January 12, 2026 at 4:08 PM
Social media is widely thought to harm public discourse, but there's some reason for optimism about AI.
From the latest issue of my newsletter, where I also report on forecasts on Iran and Greenland, the growing demand for social skills, and much else.
www.update.news/p/social-med...
From the latest issue of my newsletter, where I also report on forecasts on Iran and Greenland, the growing demand for social skills, and much else.
www.update.news/p/social-med...
Social media is widely thought to harm public discourse, but there's some reason for optimism about AI.
From the latest issue of my newsletter, where I also report on forecasts on Iran and Greenland, the growing demand for social skills, and much else.
www.update.news/p/social-med...
From the latest issue of my newsletter, where I also report on forecasts on Iran and Greenland, the growing demand for social skills, and much else.
www.update.news/p/social-med...
January 12, 2026 at 4:08 PM
Social media is widely thought to harm public discourse, but there's some reason for optimism about AI.
From the latest issue of my newsletter, where I also report on forecasts on Iran and Greenland, the growing demand for social skills, and much else.
www.update.news/p/social-med...
From the latest issue of my newsletter, where I also report on forecasts on Iran and Greenland, the growing demand for social skills, and much else.
www.update.news/p/social-med...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
Is there a tradeoff between what is intrinsically enjoyable, and what confers status?
Not necessarily, this post by @stefanschubert.bsky.social suggests—many things are both. But that can have the unexpected consequence of increasing welfare inequality:
buff.ly/DANq1nD
Not necessarily, this post by @stefanschubert.bsky.social suggests—many things are both. But that can have the unexpected consequence of increasing welfare inequality:
buff.ly/DANq1nD
January 11, 2026 at 6:55 PM
Is there a tradeoff between what is intrinsically enjoyable, and what confers status?
Not necessarily, this post by @stefanschubert.bsky.social suggests—many things are both. But that can have the unexpected consequence of increasing welfare inequality:
buff.ly/DANq1nD
Not necessarily, this post by @stefanschubert.bsky.social suggests—many things are both. But that can have the unexpected consequence of increasing welfare inequality:
buff.ly/DANq1nD
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
I'm quite enjoying "The Update", a newsletter about all things progress, but am a bit disappointed they didn't call it "The Schubert" @stefanschubert.bsky.social
www.update.news/p/the-quixot...
www.update.news/p/the-quixot...
The quixotic fight against self-driving cars
Plus: accelerating vaccine development, the chances of Iranian regime change, and more
www.update.news
January 9, 2026 at 11:35 AM
I'm quite enjoying "The Update", a newsletter about all things progress, but am a bit disappointed they didn't call it "The Schubert" @stefanschubert.bsky.social
www.update.news/p/the-quixot...
www.update.news/p/the-quixot...
Polymarket estimates a 55% chance that Khamenei is out in 2026.
And as I cover in my newsletter, Sentinel forecasters estimates a 42% chance the regime itself will fall.
www.update.news/p/the-quixot...
And as I cover in my newsletter, Sentinel forecasters estimates a 42% chance the regime itself will fall.
www.update.news/p/the-quixot...
January 9, 2026 at 9:49 AM
Polymarket estimates a 55% chance that Khamenei is out in 2026.
And as I cover in my newsletter, Sentinel forecasters estimates a 42% chance the regime itself will fall.
www.update.news/p/the-quixot...
And as I cover in my newsletter, Sentinel forecasters estimates a 42% chance the regime itself will fall.
www.update.news/p/the-quixot...
The only part of Europe where people feel more attached to Europe than to their country and region is Budapest.
Those who think they can craft a "European nationalism" are over-optimistic.
www.update.news/p/why-all-th...
Those who think they can craft a "European nationalism" are over-optimistic.
www.update.news/p/why-all-th...
January 9, 2026 at 9:36 AM
The only part of Europe where people feel more attached to Europe than to their country and region is Budapest.
Those who think they can craft a "European nationalism" are over-optimistic.
www.update.news/p/why-all-th...
Those who think they can craft a "European nationalism" are over-optimistic.
www.update.news/p/why-all-th...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
NEW article by me!
We can now visualize pathogens down to atoms; design vaccines in weeks; manufacture them in microbial factories; engineer them more precise than ever before.
We're living through a golden age of vaccine development, but only if we continue to invest in them.
We can now visualize pathogens down to atoms; design vaccines in weeks; manufacture them in microbial factories; engineer them more precise than ever before.
We're living through a golden age of vaccine development, but only if we continue to invest in them.
The golden age of vaccine development - Works in Progress Magazine
The first vaccine was a lucky accident. Now we can design new vaccines in weeks, atom by atom.
worksinprogress.co
January 7, 2026 at 3:20 PM
NEW article by me!
We can now visualize pathogens down to atoms; design vaccines in weeks; manufacture them in microbial factories; engineer them more precise than ever before.
We're living through a golden age of vaccine development, but only if we continue to invest in them.
We can now visualize pathogens down to atoms; design vaccines in weeks; manufacture them in microbial factories; engineer them more precise than ever before.
We're living through a golden age of vaccine development, but only if we continue to invest in them.
There’s a narrative that young US college grads are being replaced by AI en masse, but unemployment is also rising among young high school grads - suggesting this is more about general economic weakness.
This and much else in the latest issue of my newsletter, now at update.news.
This and much else in the latest issue of my newsletter, now at update.news.
January 7, 2026 at 1:22 PM
There’s a narrative that young US college grads are being replaced by AI en masse, but unemployment is also rising among young high school grads - suggesting this is more about general economic weakness.
This and much else in the latest issue of my newsletter, now at update.news.
This and much else in the latest issue of my newsletter, now at update.news.
Why are Americans so negative about college?
Net costs are falling, returns are stable, and the notion that college grads are being disproportionately affected by AI is overblown.
I also cover much else in the latest issue of my newsletter.
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-all-th...
Net costs are falling, returns are stable, and the notion that college grads are being disproportionately affected by AI is overblown.
I also cover much else in the latest issue of my newsletter.
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-all-th...
Why all the college catastrophizing?
Costs are falling, returns are holding up, and graduates aren’t being displaced by AI
theupdatebrief.substack.com
January 6, 2026 at 3:23 PM
Why are Americans so negative about college?
Net costs are falling, returns are stable, and the notion that college grads are being disproportionately affected by AI is overblown.
I also cover much else in the latest issue of my newsletter.
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-all-th...
Net costs are falling, returns are stable, and the notion that college grads are being disproportionately affected by AI is overblown.
I also cover much else in the latest issue of my newsletter.
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-all-th...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
In 1998, Americans expected more to have changed by 2025 than has actually changed. We often overestimate how quickly the world changes.
From the latest issue of The Update, where I also cover ten other stories (next post).
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-is-cri...
From the latest issue of The Update, where I also cover ten other stories (next post).
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-is-cri...
January 3, 2026 at 1:47 PM
In 1998, Americans expected more to have changed by 2025 than has actually changed. We often overestimate how quickly the world changes.
From the latest issue of The Update, where I also cover ten other stories (next post).
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-is-cri...
From the latest issue of The Update, where I also cover ten other stories (next post).
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-is-cri...
In 1998, Americans expected more to have changed by 2025 than has actually changed. We often overestimate how quickly the world changes.
From the latest issue of The Update, where I also cover ten other stories (next post).
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-is-cri...
From the latest issue of The Update, where I also cover ten other stories (next post).
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-is-cri...
January 3, 2026 at 1:47 PM
In 1998, Americans expected more to have changed by 2025 than has actually changed. We often overestimate how quickly the world changes.
From the latest issue of The Update, where I also cover ten other stories (next post).
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-is-cri...
From the latest issue of The Update, where I also cover ten other stories (next post).
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-is-cri...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
Interesting and encouraging data on Swedish shootings from @stefanschubert.bsky.social's new newsletter (read and subscribe here! theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-is-cri...)
Though I'm a little sceptical that we can attribute this to policy. My prior would be some regression, some policing
Though I'm a little sceptical that we can attribute this to policy. My prior would be some regression, some policing
January 2, 2026 at 11:34 PM
Interesting and encouraging data on Swedish shootings from @stefanschubert.bsky.social's new newsletter (read and subscribe here! theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/why-is-cri...)
Though I'm a little sceptical that we can attribute this to policy. My prior would be some regression, some policing
Though I'm a little sceptical that we can attribute this to policy. My prior would be some regression, some policing
How governments spend far more on old people than on children, the most central chart in AI, the educational splits to the left and the right in British politics, a crucial obstacle to job automation, and much else.
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/government...
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/government...
Governments spend far more on old people than on children
Plus: the most central chart in AI, rising economic optimism, and more
theupdatebrief.substack.com
December 23, 2025 at 12:40 PM
How governments spend far more on old people than on children, the most central chart in AI, the educational splits to the left and the right in British politics, a crucial obstacle to job automation, and much else.
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/government...
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/government...
I've started a newsletter, The Update.
Today I cover how journalists should use social science, EU-US unemployment convergence, the definition of AGI, and more.
Please subscribe!
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/the-shrink...
Today I cover how journalists should use social science, EU-US unemployment convergence, the definition of AGI, and more.
Please subscribe!
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/the-shrink...
December 19, 2025 at 12:25 PM
I've started a newsletter, The Update.
Today I cover how journalists should use social science, EU-US unemployment convergence, the definition of AGI, and more.
Please subscribe!
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/the-shrink...
Today I cover how journalists should use social science, EU-US unemployment convergence, the definition of AGI, and more.
Please subscribe!
theupdatebrief.substack.com/p/the-shrink...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
Stefan Schubert (@stefanschubert.bsky.social) has a new blog! Instant subscribe. He's one of the little voices in my head by now when I evaluate stuff I read.
theupdatebrief.substack.com
theupdatebrief.substack.com
The Update | Substack
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, Sir? Click to read The Update, a Substack publication. Launched a day ago.
theupdatebrief.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Stefan Schubert (@stefanschubert.bsky.social) has a new blog! Instant subscribe. He's one of the little voices in my head by now when I evaluate stuff I read.
theupdatebrief.substack.com
theupdatebrief.substack.com
"It has gone largely unnoticed that time spent on social media peaked in 2022 and has since gone into steady decline."
By @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/a072...
By @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/a072...
October 3, 2025 at 12:04 PM
"It has gone largely unnoticed that time spent on social media peaked in 2022 and has since gone into steady decline."
By @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/a072...
By @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/a072...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
Zurich is the latest city to make parking more expensive for oversized cars like SUVs.
Cities including Paris and Montreal have taken similar steps to counteract car bloat.
Cities including Paris and Montreal have taken similar steps to counteract car bloat.
Zürich will Parkgebühren erhöhen – SUV-Fahrer müssten deutlich mehr bezahlen
Zürich plant höhere Parkgebühren für schwere Autos in der Blauen Zone. Elektrofahrzeuge profitieren von vergünstigten Tarifen. Vorschlag geht an den Gemeinderat
www.watson.ch
October 1, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Zurich is the latest city to make parking more expensive for oversized cars like SUVs.
Cities including Paris and Montreal have taken similar steps to counteract car bloat.
Cities including Paris and Montreal have taken similar steps to counteract car bloat.
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
Most graphs of the fertility rate depict the 'period fertility rate', which is based on a single year's data and doesn't necessarily reflect how many children women actually have across their lifetimes.
I've used data from the Human Fertility Database to show the cumulative number instead:
I've used data from the Human Fertility Database to show the cumulative number instead:
October 1, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Most graphs of the fertility rate depict the 'period fertility rate', which is based on a single year's data and doesn't necessarily reflect how many children women actually have across their lifetimes.
I've used data from the Human Fertility Database to show the cumulative number instead:
I've used data from the Human Fertility Database to show the cumulative number instead:
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
Twitter is a particularly stark example but in general the gap between the public and elites (left+right) on ID cards is huge
September 26, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Twitter is a particularly stark example but in general the gap between the public and elites (left+right) on ID cards is huge
I much enjoyed David's new book.
The first part of the book describes Singer's life and how the drowning child argument inspired the founding of effective altruism.
The second part discusses objections to EA.
The first part of the book describes Singer's life and how the drowning child argument inspired the founding of effective altruism.
The second part discusses objections to EA.
Publication day today! This is the story of @petersinger.info ’s famous thought experiment, and its influence. @princetonupress.bsky.social
A fascinating account of Peter Singer’s controversial “drowning child” thought experiment—and how it changed the way people think about charitable giving.
Death in a Shallow Pond by @davidedmonds100.bsky.social is now available. Learn more: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
#Philosophy
Death in a Shallow Pond by @davidedmonds100.bsky.social is now available. Learn more: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
#Philosophy
September 26, 2025 at 10:00 AM
I much enjoyed David's new book.
The first part of the book describes Singer's life and how the drowning child argument inspired the founding of effective altruism.
The second part discusses objections to EA.
The first part of the book describes Singer's life and how the drowning child argument inspired the founding of effective altruism.
The second part discusses objections to EA.