Owen Winter
@owenwntr.bsky.social
Political data journalist at The Economist
Bluesky's LLM hate is kind of bizarre. ChatGPT isn't perfect (it's bad at certain types of task and lots of people use it badly) but it can be super useful. Why is it so popular on here to signal that you refuse to use it?
November 25, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Bluesky's LLM hate is kind of bizarre. ChatGPT isn't perfect (it's bad at certain types of task and lots of people use it badly) but it can be super useful. Why is it so popular on here to signal that you refuse to use it?
A meta-analysis in Psychological Bulletin suggests short form video use is associated with poorer cognition (especially attention and inhibitory control) and mental health (esp stress and anxiety) psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...
November 20, 2025 at 3:52 PM
A meta-analysis in Psychological Bulletin suggests short form video use is associated with poorer cognition (especially attention and inhibitory control) and mental health (esp stress and anxiety) psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...
Danish right-wing populists are pretty much back to the same level as before Mette Frederiksen came to power. Soc Dems are competitive because they lead a left-wing bloc in a PR system. Doesn't transfer neatly to the UK, where losing liberal voters to Greens/etc would cost Labour seats to Reform
November 17, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Danish right-wing populists are pretty much back to the same level as before Mette Frederiksen came to power. Soc Dems are competitive because they lead a left-wing bloc in a PR system. Doesn't transfer neatly to the UK, where losing liberal voters to Greens/etc would cost Labour seats to Reform
Reposted by Owen Winter
Column on the obvious. Loveeeee the cartoon
When rigmarole becomes reality
Sir Keir Starmer is a prisoner of the politics he pledged to end
When rigmarole becomes reality
econ.st
November 12, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Column on the obvious. Loveeeee the cartoon
Reposted by Owen Winter
Off-year elections shouldn't be thought of as predictions of midterms *because things can change a lot in a year.* What they are useful for is a reality check for the other evidence of what's happening now, and the results were consistent with the polls and with the huge protests.
What sort of midterms do the Democrats' New Jersey and Virginia midterms point to? I had a look using historic results and wound up with a central estimate of D+6 and a confidence interval from R+5 to D+16. Not exactly conclusive! owenwinter.co.uk/2025/11/10/d...
November 10, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Off-year elections shouldn't be thought of as predictions of midterms *because things can change a lot in a year.* What they are useful for is a reality check for the other evidence of what's happening now, and the results were consistent with the polls and with the huge protests.
What sort of midterms do the Democrats' New Jersey and Virginia midterms point to? I had a look using historic results and wound up with a central estimate of D+6 and a confidence interval from R+5 to D+16. Not exactly conclusive! owenwinter.co.uk/2025/11/10/d...
November 10, 2025 at 6:56 PM
What sort of midterms do the Democrats' New Jersey and Virginia midterms point to? I had a look using historic results and wound up with a central estimate of D+6 and a confidence interval from R+5 to D+16. Not exactly conclusive! owenwinter.co.uk/2025/11/10/d...
Reposted by Owen Winter
Thread.
What happened in Tuesday's elections? Here's our anatomy of a blue wave: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
November 9, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Thread.
What happened in Tuesday's elections? Here's our anatomy of a blue wave: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
November 9, 2025 at 9:01 PM
What happened in Tuesday's elections? Here's our anatomy of a blue wave: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
NYC election by largest ethnic group, by precinct:
Asian - 54% Harris, 48% Mamdani (6pt difference)
Hispanic - 69% Harris, 59% Mamdani (11pt)
White - 62% Harris, 44% Mamdani (19pt)
Black - 87% Harris, 64% Mamdani (23pt)
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
Asian - 54% Harris, 48% Mamdani (6pt difference)
Hispanic - 69% Harris, 59% Mamdani (11pt)
White - 62% Harris, 44% Mamdani (19pt)
Black - 87% Harris, 64% Mamdani (23pt)
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
November 7, 2025 at 5:59 PM
NYC election by largest ethnic group, by precinct:
Asian - 54% Harris, 48% Mamdani (6pt difference)
Hispanic - 69% Harris, 59% Mamdani (11pt)
White - 62% Harris, 44% Mamdani (19pt)
Black - 87% Harris, 64% Mamdani (23pt)
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
Asian - 54% Harris, 48% Mamdani (6pt difference)
Hispanic - 69% Harris, 59% Mamdani (11pt)
White - 62% Harris, 44% Mamdani (19pt)
Black - 87% Harris, 64% Mamdani (23pt)
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
Andrew Cuomo won precincts with over two-thirds car ownership by a large margin, Zohran Mamdani won parts of the city where fewer people own a car
November 7, 2025 at 9:51 AM
Andrew Cuomo won precincts with over two-thirds car ownership by a large margin, Zohran Mamdani won parts of the city where fewer people own a car
Reposted by Owen Winter
Alright but a broader level the governments line on NY elections being "the words on the red boxes say United Kingdom, not United States" is...kinda valid
November 5, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Alright but a broader level the governments line on NY elections being "the words on the red boxes say United Kingdom, not United States" is...kinda valid
Curious how Republican candidates in Virginia and New Jersey are feeling about the government shutdown. It's clear now that Trump's approval has taken a hit (across multiple pollsters) right before the first major elections of his second term
November 3, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Curious how Republican candidates in Virginia and New Jersey are feeling about the government shutdown. It's clear now that Trump's approval has taken a hit (across multiple pollsters) right before the first major elections of his second term
In our polling with YouGov, since the start of his second term Donald Trump's net approval has fallen 17pts among white Americans (+17 to -1), 28pts among Hispanic Americans (-9 to -37) and 38pts among black Americans (-36 to -74)
November 3, 2025 at 10:41 AM
In our polling with YouGov, since the start of his second term Donald Trump's net approval has fallen 17pts among white Americans (+17 to -1), 28pts among Hispanic Americans (-9 to -37) and 38pts among black Americans (-36 to -74)
Got to wonder what effect this sort of coverage will have on Reform’s brand over the next few years before a general election
November 3, 2025 at 10:09 AM
Got to wonder what effect this sort of coverage will have on Reform’s brand over the next few years before a general election
Reposted by Owen Winter
It's not fashionable, I know, but sometimes when events in the world are truly awful, terrible, horrific it seems best to watch the news reflectively - as professionals do their best to report for us, as details emerge - without attempting to use those events to validate one's owns views.
November 2, 2025 at 8:07 PM
It's not fashionable, I know, but sometimes when events in the world are truly awful, terrible, horrific it seems best to watch the news reflectively - as professionals do their best to report for us, as details emerge - without attempting to use those events to validate one's owns views.
My only take on the Dem moderation debate is that data people are far too confident you can find the secret recipe for electability with polls or election results
October 31, 2025 at 9:54 AM
My only take on the Dem moderation debate is that data people are far too confident you can find the secret recipe for electability with polls or election results
Reposted by Owen Winter
Our cover this week
“Europe should take heart and recognise its own strength. Its military budget is already four times larger than Russia’s; its economy is ten times larger. Far from shying away from a financial contest with the Kremlin, Europe should embrace it—and win the war”
“Europe should take heart and recognise its own strength. Its military budget is already four times larger than Russia’s; its economy is ten times larger. Far from shying away from a financial contest with the Kremlin, Europe should embrace it—and win the war”
October 31, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Our cover this week
“Europe should take heart and recognise its own strength. Its military budget is already four times larger than Russia’s; its economy is ten times larger. Far from shying away from a financial contest with the Kremlin, Europe should embrace it—and win the war”
“Europe should take heart and recognise its own strength. Its military budget is already four times larger than Russia’s; its economy is ten times larger. Far from shying away from a financial contest with the Kremlin, Europe should embrace it—and win the war”
We haven't had a poll of London recently but based on MRPs + nationwide moves I would guess VI here is something like Lab 26, Green 19, Reform 19. Would be a huge swing from the 2022 local elections if it holds until May
October 31, 2025 at 8:39 AM
We haven't had a poll of London recently but based on MRPs + nationwide moves I would guess VI here is something like Lab 26, Green 19, Reform 19. Would be a huge swing from the 2022 local elections if it holds until May
Reposted by Owen Winter
Wrote about the dominance of "victims" in our political discourse, which included this fab chart @owenwntr.bsky.social www.economist.com/britain/2025...
October 30, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Wrote about the dominance of "victims" in our political discourse, which included this fab chart @owenwntr.bsky.social www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Reposted by Owen Winter
With the official prognosis giving one additional seat to PVV and one to FvD compared to the ext poll, the narrative should really not be that the Netherlands/Jetten has beaten the radical right. The far right bloc remains remarkably stable.
October 30, 2025 at 7:01 AM
With the official prognosis giving one additional seat to PVV and one to FvD compared to the ext poll, the narrative should really not be that the Netherlands/Jetten has beaten the radical right. The far right bloc remains remarkably stable.
Reposted by Owen Winter
7% van de D66 stemmers kwamen van de PVV. Dat is ongeveer 130,000 mensen.
October 29, 2025 at 10:14 PM
7% van de D66 stemmers kwamen van de PVV. Dat is ongeveer 130,000 mensen.
Reposted by Owen Winter
Wat kunnen we in de exit polls zien? Centrum-rechts (CDA, VVD, CU, SGP, 50PLUS) was nog nooit zo klein. De linkse partijen (inclusief D66) is het grootste blok. Radicaal rechts handhaaft zich.
October 29, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Wat kunnen we in de exit polls zien? Centrum-rechts (CDA, VVD, CU, SGP, 50PLUS) was nog nooit zo klein. De linkse partijen (inclusief D66) is het grootste blok. Radicaal rechts handhaaft zich.
Worth saying (if the exit poll is right) that the far-right in the Netherlands hasn't really shrunk, just shifted from PVV to JA21 and FvD
October 29, 2025 at 11:07 PM
Worth saying (if the exit poll is right) that the far-right in the Netherlands hasn't really shrunk, just shifted from PVV to JA21 and FvD
Final poll from Peil shows PVV in steep decline. Final average
PVV 25 (-12)
GL-PVDA 24 (-1)
D66 23 (+14)
CDA 19 (+14)
VVD 18 (-6)
JA21 9 (+8)
PVV 25 (-12)
GL-PVDA 24 (-1)
D66 23 (+14)
CDA 19 (+14)
VVD 18 (-6)
JA21 9 (+8)
October 28, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Final poll from Peil shows PVV in steep decline. Final average
PVV 25 (-12)
GL-PVDA 24 (-1)
D66 23 (+14)
CDA 19 (+14)
VVD 18 (-6)
JA21 9 (+8)
PVV 25 (-12)
GL-PVDA 24 (-1)
D66 23 (+14)
CDA 19 (+14)
VVD 18 (-6)
JA21 9 (+8)
Looks like the far-right PVV is stumbling a bit in the final polls for tomorrow's election in the Netherlands. Liberal D66 surging
October 28, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Looks like the far-right PVV is stumbling a bit in the final polls for tomorrow's election in the Netherlands. Liberal D66 surging