Jonathan Bernstein
@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
Good Politics/Bad Politics - Subscribe! https://goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/ Also I root for the Giants. The Making of the Presidential Candidates 2024.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
On the latest DDHQ podcast, we explored the chaotic U.S. House of Representatives.
Guest Joshua Huder highlighted how internal conflicts within both parties have made it harder to manage the House — currently Speaker Mike Johnson's problem.
Watch here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/house-of-r...
Guest Joshua Huder highlighted how internal conflicts within both parties have made it harder to manage the House — currently Speaker Mike Johnson's problem.
Watch here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/house-of-r...
Episode 13: A House Divided, with Joshua Huder from Georgetown's GAI
A narrow majority, internal party conflicts, and larger structural challenges have made it difficult for Speaker Mike Johnson to control the U.S. House of Representatives
decisiondeskhq.substack.com
January 15, 2026 at 10:18 PM
On the latest DDHQ podcast, we explored the chaotic U.S. House of Representatives.
Guest Joshua Huder highlighted how internal conflicts within both parties have made it harder to manage the House — currently Speaker Mike Johnson's problem.
Watch here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/house-of-r...
Guest Joshua Huder highlighted how internal conflicts within both parties have made it harder to manage the House — currently Speaker Mike Johnson's problem.
Watch here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/house-of-r...
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
Pivoting to Asia the long way around
UPDATE from @nytimes.com: Trump is building up forces near Iran. The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and escort ships are heading there from the South China Sea — a two-week trip. And the Pentagon is sending more warplanes, many from Europe. Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/u...
January 16, 2026 at 1:16 AM
Pivoting to Asia the long way around
What does god need with a TV franchise?
Stephen Miller wants a 95-year-old Canadian put in charge of the Star Trek franchise, to stop the woke
January 16, 2026 at 12:59 AM
What does god need with a TV franchise?
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
I appreciate @jamellebouie.net's thread and the replies rejecting the fear of Trump cancelling the midterms. As someone who studies authoritarian regimes, though, I would argue that there are many ways to undermine elections without outright cancelling them.
i don't even know why i'm raising this here because i know i'm going to get a hundred replies of "Trump has god powers that will let him do whatever he wants and thus we have no choice but to bend to his will," but for those of you capable of complex thought, these are questions to ask yourself.
January 15, 2026 at 5:57 PM
I appreciate @jamellebouie.net's thread and the replies rejecting the fear of Trump cancelling the midterms. As someone who studies authoritarian regimes, though, I would argue that there are many ways to undermine elections without outright cancelling them.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
If this bill becomes law and there is a shutdown at the end of the month, the remaining depts are:
Defense
Treasury
Homeland Security
Labor/HHS/Education
State (& all foreign aid)
Transportation
HUD
Congress is funded for the year. The White House & courts are not.
Defense
Treasury
Homeland Security
Labor/HHS/Education
State (& all foreign aid)
Transportation
HUD
Congress is funded for the year. The White House & courts are not.
Senate passes CJS, Interior and Energy & Water minibus by a whopping 82-15 vote, sending it to Trump's desk. 6 of 12 agencies now funded to Sept. 30.
January 15, 2026 at 9:43 PM
If this bill becomes law and there is a shutdown at the end of the month, the remaining depts are:
Defense
Treasury
Homeland Security
Labor/HHS/Education
State (& all foreign aid)
Transportation
HUD
Congress is funded for the year. The White House & courts are not.
Defense
Treasury
Homeland Security
Labor/HHS/Education
State (& all foreign aid)
Transportation
HUD
Congress is funded for the year. The White House & courts are not.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
problems with the plan aside, it's… not a plan. it's a plan to maybe make a plan.
January 15, 2026 at 6:59 PM
problems with the plan aside, it's… not a plan. it's a plan to maybe make a plan.
Everything Jamelle says. Plus: The problem with doomer expectations of "canceling" elections (other than it's annoying) is there are real things Trump/GOP might do to attempt to impede fully free & fair elections and doomerism doesn't go well with preparing to counter and resist those real dangers.
the question to ask about this is, okay, he wants to cancel the midterms. how does he get the VA state board of elections to cancel the midterms? how does he get the georgia board of elections to do it? how does he convince republican house members to quit their jobs and give up their paychecks?
Trump says a lot of deranged shit, but, per this Reuters article — and the threats of invoking the Insurrection Act in Minnesota this morning — he is very clearly exploring how to cancel the midterms.
www.reuters.com/world/us/fiv...
www.reuters.com/world/us/fiv...
January 15, 2026 at 8:11 PM
Everything Jamelle says. Plus: The problem with doomer expectations of "canceling" elections (other than it's annoying) is there are real things Trump/GOP might do to attempt to impede fully free & fair elections and doomerism doesn't go well with preparing to counter and resist those real dangers.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
Democrats are excited about their Senate candidates. The candidates don’t sound excited about being Democrats. My new one:
open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...
open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...
Running For What
Democratic Party leaders are excited about their big Senate candidate recruits. Those candidates don't seem to return the sentiment.
open.substack.com
January 15, 2026 at 2:36 PM
Democrats are excited about their Senate candidates. The candidates don’t sound excited about being Democrats. My new one:
open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...
open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...
Really important to know that they can be defeated, and in fact they're defeated all the time.
BREAKING: The controversial hepatitis B vaccine trial in Guinea-Bissau has been *cancelled,* I can now report. A senior official with Africa CDC confirmed the cancellation and said GB officials are working to make sure any research is conducted ethically:
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
Controversial US study on hepatitis B vaccines in Africa is cancelled
$1.6m project drew outrage over ethical questions about withholding vaccines proven to prevent disease
www.theguardian.com
January 15, 2026 at 4:30 PM
Really important to know that they can be defeated, and in fact they're defeated all the time.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
This process looks more like Trump 1.0 when Congress ignored steep cuts proposed by the admin. However, Democrats appear to have capitulated more this time, allowing sizable cuts and jettisoning language restricting impoundments or RIFs.
Congress Is Spurning Many of Trump’s Proposed Spending Cuts
Congress Is Spurning Many of Trump’s Proposed Spending Cuts
www.nytimes.com
January 15, 2026 at 12:49 PM
This process looks more like Trump 1.0 when Congress ignored steep cuts proposed by the admin. However, Democrats appear to have capitulated more this time, allowing sizable cuts and jettisoning language restricting impoundments or RIFs.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
Ok, that’s one. It’s a good start.
Rep Don Bacon (R-NE) says he anticipates that Trump will be impeached if he invades Greenland. omaha.com/news/local/g...
Rep. Don Bacon says House could impeach Trump if U.S. invades Greenland
Rep. Don Bacon tells The World-Herald that there would be GOP support for an impeachment of Donald Trump if the U.S. invaded Greenland.
omaha.com
January 15, 2026 at 4:36 AM
Ok, that’s one. It’s a good start.
So we're not at the point where enough Republicans have split from the administration that they're actually forcing vetoes, let alone overriding vetoes...but we're definitely at the point where some Republicans are sometimes quite public in their criticisms, including in floor votes...
Vance breaks tie, 51-50, procedural vote to sideline this thing. The procedural point of order vote is pretty convoluted; Vance took a minute to make sure he was voting the right way: "Had to make sure"
Senate is tied 50-50 on procedural vote to sideline Kaine's Venezuela War Powers resolution. GOP leaders need VP Vance to tiebreak
Votes from the Big Six last week
-Fetterman, Rand, Collins, Murkowski voted to advance
- Young and Hawley voted the other way
Votes from the Big Six last week
-Fetterman, Rand, Collins, Murkowski voted to advance
- Young and Hawley voted the other way
January 14, 2026 at 11:38 PM
So we're not at the point where enough Republicans have split from the administration that they're actually forcing vetoes, let alone overriding vetoes...but we're definitely at the point where some Republicans are sometimes quite public in their criticisms, including in floor votes...
So: Encourage people in Iran to run out and get slaughtered, claiming that he'll rescue them...and then when the slaughter ends - maybe, probably not - take credit for it without actually doing anything. Am I missing something, or was this unusually monstrous even for him?
Trump says that Iran has stopped killing people. “I've been told that on good authority,” he says, which you would hope, given that he’s the President of the United States, but 🤷♂️
January 14, 2026 at 10:46 PM
So: Encourage people in Iran to run out and get slaughtered, claiming that he'll rescue them...and then when the slaughter ends - maybe, probably not - take credit for it without actually doing anything. Am I missing something, or was this unusually monstrous even for him?
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
There is a word to describe people who disrupt regular societal functions, like education and healthcare, by making people afraid to do anything.
[It rhymes with errorist.]
[It rhymes with errorist.]
ICE's "presence is terrifying medical staff and raising concerns about patient care, according to five nurses at HCMC hospital in Minneapolis who asked to remain anonymous for fear of losing their jobs."
Via reporter @ericazurek.bsky.social www.mprnews.org/story/2026/0...
Via reporter @ericazurek.bsky.social www.mprnews.org/story/2026/0...
ICE agents appear at Twin Cities hospitals, alarming health care workers
Health care workers in the Twin Cities report that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents are entering hospitals with detained individuals, leaving some medical staff terrified and concerned ...
www.mprnews.org
January 14, 2026 at 8:30 PM
There is a word to describe people who disrupt regular societal functions, like education and healthcare, by making people afraid to do anything.
[It rhymes with errorist.]
[It rhymes with errorist.]
Once again: People really don't want to believe that this could all be because Trump is a moron but really the explanation that fits best over and over again is that Trump is a moron.
As with so much of what Trump does, I think the stupidest, pettiest, most vulgar explanation is more plausible than some elaborate Xanatos Gambit. Trump see place look big on map, Trump want big place, make Trump feel strong.
January 14, 2026 at 9:44 PM
Once again: People really don't want to believe that this could all be because Trump is a moron but really the explanation that fits best over and over again is that Trump is a moron.
*So many* ways Trump has made the US smaller, weaker, poorer already, but many of the individual effects are marginal by themselves or just the start of a longer (and costlier) process. Unfortunately really easy for people to miss the larger dismal picture, which is legit difficult to explain.
Folks in the US still like to treat the whole Greenland invasion stuff as sufficiently unserious to engage with, but it is sufficiently serious that NATO allies are actively deploying tripwire forces to deter the US. That is *already* a political and actual cost to them, and to US relationships
January 14, 2026 at 6:33 PM
*So many* ways Trump has made the US smaller, weaker, poorer already, but many of the individual effects are marginal by themselves or just the start of a longer (and costlier) process. Unfortunately really easy for people to miss the larger dismal picture, which is legit difficult to explain.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
Thinking of a very loose coalition as an organism with a single heart, mind, & will makes you stupid. Or, at least, it makes your audience stupid to the extent that they believe you—& for some malevolent actors, that is what they want. If you think “Congress doesn’t care” about ICE murderings... 1/
January 14, 2026 at 2:54 PM
Thinking of a very loose coalition as an organism with a single heart, mind, & will makes you stupid. Or, at least, it makes your audience stupid to the extent that they believe you—& for some malevolent actors, that is what they want. If you think “Congress doesn’t care” about ICE murderings... 1/
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
i think you have to have a paid sub to access our archive, but here's the piece i started writing as sort of a throw-away but increasing i think became the whole ballgame goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/the-odds-v...
January 14, 2026 at 3:12 PM
i think you have to have a paid sub to access our archive, but here's the piece i started writing as sort of a throw-away but increasing i think became the whole ballgame goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/the-odds-v...
It's currently a story on the NYT and WaPo homepages. CNN and NBC (at least) ran stories. TMZ ran a story. Numerous newspapers ran stories. Pretty confident the Trump story is getting *way* more play than the Frey-swearing story.
Jacob Frey told ICE agents to get the fuck out of Minneapolis, a hugely popular viral moment, and the media has been browbeating him over it ever since. Trump flipped a guy off and told him fuck you and it’s barely acknowledged.
January 14, 2026 at 4:25 PM
It's currently a story on the NYT and WaPo homepages. CNN and NBC (at least) ran stories. TMZ ran a story. Numerous newspapers ran stories. Pretty confident the Trump story is getting *way* more play than the Frey-swearing story.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
My least popular (for this website) opinion that it’s perfectly fine for Democrats from razor thin purple districts and states to make mealy mouthed both sides statements. Do what you need to to get reelected. Everything else is gravy.
January 14, 2026 at 4:51 AM
My least popular (for this website) opinion that it’s perfectly fine for Democrats from razor thin purple districts and states to make mealy mouthed both sides statements. Do what you need to to get reelected. Everything else is gravy.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
What a mess for the House GOP. 4 minor bills on the schedule - and only one of them passes.
January 14, 2026 at 12:00 AM
What a mess for the House GOP. 4 minor bills on the schedule - and only one of them passes.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
DEFEATED! Democrats joined by 6 Republicans just took down this anti-worker bill, the final vote was unchanged from below.
Mike Johnson spent nearly an hour trying to flip Republican holdouts but ultimately gave up, his first floor defeat of the year and likely not the last.
Mike Johnson spent nearly an hour trying to flip Republican holdouts but ultimately gave up, his first floor defeat of the year and likely not the last.
Some House floor drama as Republicans are currently losing a vote on a bill to let employers to exclude workforce education and development training from minimum wage and overtime calculations. Labor-friendly R's (there are a few, sometimes) voting no, Johnson huddling with them for ~30 mins now
January 13, 2026 at 11:00 PM
DEFEATED! Democrats joined by 6 Republicans just took down this anti-worker bill, the final vote was unchanged from below.
Mike Johnson spent nearly an hour trying to flip Republican holdouts but ultimately gave up, his first floor defeat of the year and likely not the last.
Mike Johnson spent nearly an hour trying to flip Republican holdouts but ultimately gave up, his first floor defeat of the year and likely not the last.
The biggest difference between the House recently and earlier during this Congress is the least-conservative handful have somehow started standing up for themselves. At least a bit.
We'll see where it goes, but it's potentially a huge deal for the rest of the year and beyond.
We'll see where it goes, but it's potentially a huge deal for the rest of the year and beyond.
Some House floor drama as Republicans are currently losing a vote on a bill to let employers to exclude workforce education and development training from minimum wage and overtime calculations. Labor-friendly R's (there are a few, sometimes) voting no, Johnson huddling with them for ~30 mins now
January 13, 2026 at 10:52 PM
The biggest difference between the House recently and earlier during this Congress is the least-conservative handful have somehow started standing up for themselves. At least a bit.
We'll see where it goes, but it's potentially a huge deal for the rest of the year and beyond.
We'll see where it goes, but it's potentially a huge deal for the rest of the year and beyond.
No expert so someone tell me if I'm wrong but Trump urging people in Iran to run out and get slaughtered because he'll rescue them when in fact he'll do no such thing seems very high on the horrific scale.
January 13, 2026 at 10:02 PM
No expert so someone tell me if I'm wrong but Trump urging people in Iran to run out and get slaughtered because he'll rescue them when in fact he'll do no such thing seems very high on the horrific scale.