Jonathan Bernstein
@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
Good Politics/Bad Politics - Subscribe! https://goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/ Also I root for the Giants. The Making of the Presidential Candidates 2024.
Very similar to the Trump Afghanistan "plan"; once he decides he wants something done, he doesn't care at all how it's done - no consideration of US interests or long-term consequences.
The question I get asked most often is how to understand Trump's push-me-pull-me Ukraine policy. To me there are a few constants that don't change:
1) He really wants to end the war fast. Results over process.
2) He respects Putin and wants a good relationship with Russia. 👉
1) He really wants to end the war fast. Results over process.
2) He respects Putin and wants a good relationship with Russia. 👉
November 25, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Very similar to the Trump Afghanistan "plan"; once he decides he wants something done, he doesn't care at all how it's done - no consideration of US interests or long-term consequences.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
🧵 Grim watch for sell-out of Ukraine and/or bombing of Venezuela show we are in a new era. Welcome to the unconstrained future of world order. 1/
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
The Unconstrained Future of World Order: The Assault on Democratic Constraint and Implications for US Global Leadership | International Organization | Cambridge Core
The Unconstrained Future of World Order: The Assault on Democratic Constraint and Implications for US Global Leadership - Volume 79 Issue S1
www.cambridge.org
November 25, 2025 at 3:05 PM
🧵 Grim watch for sell-out of Ukraine and/or bombing of Venezuela show we are in a new era. Welcome to the unconstrained future of world order. 1/
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
The (apparently false) brown M&Ms as signals of carelessness are, like the misinterpretation of Lando's "deal" with Vader and the (not) boiled frogs, probably too useful to stop using despite being false.
nothing is real
* You know how Van Halen had a contract rider demanding bowls of M&Ms with the brown ones removed?
They later claimed that was all a test to make sure venues were reading their contracts. Clever!
BUT WAIT, that claim itself is actually false. I fact-checked it.
Snack Stack exclusive:
They later claimed that was all a test to make sure venues were reading their contracts. Clever!
BUT WAIT, that claim itself is actually false. I fact-checked it.
Snack Stack exclusive:
November 25, 2025 at 3:01 PM
The (apparently false) brown M&Ms as signals of carelessness are, like the misinterpretation of Lando's "deal" with Vader and the (not) boiled frogs, probably too useful to stop using despite being false.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
Use of the term "middle class" in official congressional e-newsletters, by party, over time
November 25, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Use of the term "middle class" in official congressional e-newsletters, by party, over time
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
LOL. lmao even.
Billionaire Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, pardoned by Donald Trump, has been accused of facilitating millions of dollars’ worth of payments to Hamas in the wake of its attack on Israel on October 7 2023. Zhao also financed the Trump family's entrance into the cryptocurrency market.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao accused of facilitating payments to Hamas
Crypto tycoon pardoned by Donald Trump faces US court complaint from families of victims of October 7 attack
www.ft.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:54 AM
LOL. lmao even.
I shall start throwing things at my TV now in anticipation of these.
I figure Ken Burns has one, maybe two big documentary series in him before he fully retires. What do you think they should be? My votes include Football, Hip-Hop, World War 1, Reconstruction (though Skip Gates did this one well), Iraq/Afghanistan, 19th Century Expansionism.
November 25, 2025 at 3:15 AM
I shall start throwing things at my TV now in anticipation of these.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
… Notch another piece of evidence for GOP electeds bucking Trump, for those touting that trend. Call it lame duck, sinking DJT approval, whatever.
November 24, 2025 at 11:03 PM
… Notch another piece of evidence for GOP electeds bucking Trump, for those touting that trend. Call it lame duck, sinking DJT approval, whatever.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
The MAGA marketplace is not taking the Comey/James dismissal ruling well
November 24, 2025 at 7:09 PM
The MAGA marketplace is not taking the Comey/James dismissal ruling well
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
You mean the plan maybe-authored, maybe-disavowed, and definitely (re)embraced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation’s maybe-top diplomat?
Republicans met Trump's proposed peace plan with a furious backlash, calling it “nothing more than Russia’s absurd wish list."
GOP Civil War Erupts Over Trump’s ‘Garbage’ Peace Plan
Top U.S. officials met with Ukrainian leaders after the initial proposal drew widespread backlash.
trib.al
November 24, 2025 at 7:22 PM
You mean the plan maybe-authored, maybe-disavowed, and definitely (re)embraced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation’s maybe-top diplomat?
If you missed it over the weekend...stop thinking of democracy as all or nothing. And yeah I'm no alarmist, and I'll argue with alarmists when they go overboard...but overall alarmists are doing a great service to the nation, and if we avoid the worst they deserve credit, not second-guessing.
New one: Why alarmists are good for the republic right now, although doomers are not. And links! @carolyneholmes.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social @dcinbox.bsky.social @rickhasen.bsky.social @jennmjacksonphd.bsky.social and more. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/for-a-litt...
For a Little Alarmism
I'm not an alarmist, but I'm glad we have some. Plus the links.
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:15 PM
If you missed it over the weekend...stop thinking of democracy as all or nothing. And yeah I'm no alarmist, and I'll argue with alarmists when they go overboard...but overall alarmists are doing a great service to the nation, and if we avoid the worst they deserve credit, not second-guessing.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
A bit more detail about this post. Trump-world (and particularly Press Sec. Karoline Leavitt) have been leaning heavily on the idea of a popular mandate from last year's election. Declining polls and the 2025 elections strain that argument, but the presidency still has a whole lot of power
Trump is learning the limits of mandate politics. Maybe. open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...
Trump is learning the limits of mandate politics. Maybe.
After the 2024 election, Trump and his communication team – especially press secretary Karoline Leavitt – seized on the idea that his 49.8% of the popular vote constituted a historic mandate. This, ac...
open.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:49 PM
A bit more detail about this post. Trump-world (and particularly Press Sec. Karoline Leavitt) have been leaning heavily on the idea of a popular mandate from last year's election. Declining polls and the 2025 elections strain that argument, but the presidency still has a whole lot of power
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
The bipartisan Problem Solvers' bill extending the enhanced subsidies takes a better approach to fraud: crack down on brokers.
The question: Can Republican reps bear to extend the enhanced subsidies without taking a gratuitous swipe at the poorest enrollees? 4/
The question: Can Republican reps bear to extend the enhanced subsidies without taking a gratuitous swipe at the poorest enrollees? 4/
On Earth 2, a rational compromise for Obamacare
Surprise! The Problem Solvers come up with a...problem solver
xpostfactoid.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 2:47 PM
The bipartisan Problem Solvers' bill extending the enhanced subsidies takes a better approach to fraud: crack down on brokers.
The question: Can Republican reps bear to extend the enhanced subsidies without taking a gratuitous swipe at the poorest enrollees? 4/
The question: Can Republican reps bear to extend the enhanced subsidies without taking a gratuitous swipe at the poorest enrollees? 4/
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
Trump is learning the limits of mandate politics. Maybe. open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...
Trump is learning the limits of mandate politics. Maybe.
After the 2024 election, Trump and his communication team – especially press secretary Karoline Leavitt – seized on the idea that his 49.8% of the popular vote constituted a historic mandate. This, ac...
open.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Trump is learning the limits of mandate politics. Maybe. open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...
Haven't read the paper so far but will say (as many have said) that if you make it harder for a group to vote and they keep voting at the same rate...it means that they're paying a cost somehow, whether it's in money or time or aggravation or whatever. And likely also true if they do vote less.
As we all wait for Callais to come down, our piece showing that Shelby County increased the racial turnout gap in most of the covered parts of the country has cleared the replication check and is incoming at JOP.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
November 24, 2025 at 3:54 AM
Haven't read the paper so far but will say (as many have said) that if you make it harder for a group to vote and they keep voting at the same rate...it means that they're paying a cost somehow, whether it's in money or time or aggravation or whatever. And likely also true if they do vote less.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
As we all wait for Callais to come down, our piece showing that Shelby County increased the racial turnout gap in most of the covered parts of the country has cleared the replication check and is incoming at JOP.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
November 24, 2025 at 12:47 AM
As we all wait for Callais to come down, our piece showing that Shelby County increased the racial turnout gap in most of the covered parts of the country has cleared the replication check and is incoming at JOP.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
The lesson here is not that VP Vance is stupid. It’s that he’s mendacious and willing to make an outlandish argument to be in line with Trump
November 23, 2025 at 11:14 PM
The lesson here is not that VP Vance is stupid. It’s that he’s mendacious and willing to make an outlandish argument to be in line with Trump
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
Wonder if the US officials giving away Ukraine right now have heard about this?
Russia has sent over 120 military trainers to venezuela to train venezuelan forces around air defence and guerrilla warfare.
November 23, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Wonder if the US officials giving away Ukraine right now have heard about this?
Sorry can't get involved in this now busy listening to the newly released Husker Du live Helter Skelter and Ticket to Ride.
the gen x guys are fighting about whether they used to like the beatles but we know its just lead poisoning scrambling their memories
November 23, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Sorry can't get involved in this now busy listening to the newly released Husker Du live Helter Skelter and Ticket to Ride.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
Another perspective on the foreign policy chaos that may end up selling out Ukraine. 👇
1/Russia-Ukraine diplomatic freelancing underscores transformation of neo-royalist order. Courtiers can strike deals but also stir up confusion. Witcoff edition.
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com
November 23, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Another perspective on the foreign policy chaos that may end up selling out Ukraine. 👇
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
👇👇👇👇👇
Really important to stress that the Crown Jewels of the US higher education system were never the Ivies or elite SLACs (other countries have equivalents of these) but the well-funded, large, cheap, and excellently staffed public state university systems bringing high quality education to the masses.
One of the bragging rights that the US ed system had in the 20th century is that we didn't have education tracks. Essentially, any kid could go to a CC or state school & major in whatever they wanted to (obviously an oversimplification). I fear this aspect of the American dream is dying.
November 23, 2025 at 6:40 PM
👇👇👇👇👇
New one: Why alarmists are good for the republic right now, although doomers are not. And links! @carolyneholmes.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social @dcinbox.bsky.social @rickhasen.bsky.social @jennmjacksonphd.bsky.social and more. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/for-a-litt...
For a Little Alarmism
I'm not an alarmist, but I'm glad we have some. Plus the links.
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com
November 23, 2025 at 6:48 PM
New one: Why alarmists are good for the republic right now, although doomers are not. And links! @carolyneholmes.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social @dcinbox.bsky.social @rickhasen.bsky.social @jennmjacksonphd.bsky.social and more. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/for-a-litt...
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
The reason this is happening is a combination of 1) incentives and 2) supply meeting demand.
There is no more consistent result in studies of monetized propaganda than that the MAGA right is a particularly receptive niche.
There is no more consistent result in studies of monetized propaganda than that the MAGA right is a particularly receptive niche.
I see a lot of Paidchecks on X didn’t realize that a whole lot of people on social media lie about their location to grift off the naïveté of the rage-addled American right.
Turns out this problem is real and it’s a thing those of us who worked on “disinformation” pointed out.
Turns out this problem is real and it’s a thing those of us who worked on “disinformation” pointed out.
November 23, 2025 at 5:23 PM
The reason this is happening is a combination of 1) incentives and 2) supply meeting demand.
There is no more consistent result in studies of monetized propaganda than that the MAGA right is a particularly receptive niche.
There is no more consistent result in studies of monetized propaganda than that the MAGA right is a particularly receptive niche.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
[scene: Situation Room. At head of table is Trump, entering codes into nuclear ‘football’. On the table in front of him is a folder marked “AUTHORIZED PLAN TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON KIEV.”
SECRETARY RUBIO (whispering, to man sitting next to him): No, I didn’t write it, I thought YOU wrote it”
SECRETARY RUBIO (whispering, to man sitting next to him): No, I didn’t write it, I thought YOU wrote it”
November 23, 2025 at 5:34 PM
[scene: Situation Room. At head of table is Trump, entering codes into nuclear ‘football’. On the table in front of him is a folder marked “AUTHORIZED PLAN TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON KIEV.”
SECRETARY RUBIO (whispering, to man sitting next to him): No, I didn’t write it, I thought YOU wrote it”
SECRETARY RUBIO (whispering, to man sitting next to him): No, I didn’t write it, I thought YOU wrote it”
This is what we mean when we say there is no policy-making process, and that it's way dangerous.
In normal administrations, the White House Chief of Staff would try to do something about this.
In normal administrations, the White House Chief of Staff would try to do something about this.
The plan was leaked by the Russians and no one in America’s historically inept administration knew what anyone else was doing so people started getting behind it because they thought it was official policy.
Putin totally played the US, knowing full well he was up against incompetents and idiots.
Putin totally played the US, knowing full well he was up against incompetents and idiots.
November 23, 2025 at 6:50 AM
This is what we mean when we say there is no policy-making process, and that it's way dangerous.
In normal administrations, the White House Chief of Staff would try to do something about this.
In normal administrations, the White House Chief of Staff would try to do something about this.
Hope this happens and looking forward to reading.
Yes, and I have an idea of how and where I may express them at greater length. Stay tuned.
In the end this is not a story about a revolution; it's really only about a war of national liberation.
In the end this is not a story about a revolution; it's really only about a war of national liberation.
November 23, 2025 at 5:21 AM
Hope this happens and looking forward to reading.