Are you running your own PDS?

Happy New War!

Finally: Happy New Year folks!

The quote posts on this are pretty funny.

And, putting aside the name, this startup seems like it doesn't really solve the problem that burglar alarms just aren't very effective.

Say we create a separate review process for papers that are 100% AI generated. Where do we draw the line? What if it's 95% AI? 80%? 50%? 25% – a lot of papers are already there?

(Obviously it's impossible to quantify the percentage of work that is AI, but I hope my point is clear nonetheless.)

This out of sequence reply seems to have broken the thread. Main thread continues here:
bsky.app/profile/stei...

In the interest of making prediction #5 quantifiable:

5d. NVDA will underperform SPY in 2026.

To be clear, I count bombing Iran as him having gone to war in 2025. I expect something similar in 2026 e.g. against Venezuela.

5a. Frontier AI progress will continue, but at a slower pace than previously.

5b. Smaller & open-source models will narrow the gap with frontier models.

5c. Demand for GPUs will start to slow down or, at least, expected future demand will come down.

[Yes, these predictions are hard to quantify.]

4a. The supreme court will uphold birthright citizenship and block Trump's executive order.

4b. The decision will not be close - either 9-0 or 8-1.

4c. SCOTUS will dodge the constitutional question and instead cite 8 U.S.C. § 1401(a)

3a. Trump will go to war with another country. (Although war won't officially be declared.)

3b. Trump will not win the Nobel Peace Prize.

2a. Democrats will eke out a win in the US House of Representatives.

2b. But Democrats won't get a majority in the Senate.

1. New Zealand's governing coalition (Nat+ACT+NZF) will win a majority. (I wouldn't bet on them sticking together though.)

It's also about family size. The calculus of having your travel paid for is very different if you still have to pay for your spouse+kids.

Sisyphus got off easy with that boulder.