Stephen Evans
@stephenevans.bsky.social
Chief Executive, Learning and Work Institute.
Ex HMT, SMF and London government.
Learning, skills, labour markets & public policy.
Views my own.
Ex HMT, SMF and London government.
Learning, skills, labour markets & public policy.
Views my own.
These things are all interesting in terms of how the labour market works in practice (and hence the effect of future policy changes), future growth potential (weak by post-WW2 standards but perhaps AI will save us...), and what to look out for in the wage growth data.
Monetary Policy Report - February 2026
Our quarterly report sets out the economic analysis and inflation projections that the Monetary Policy Committee uses to make its interest rate decisions.
www.bankofengland.co.uk
February 5, 2026 at 1:49 PM
These things are all interesting in terms of how the labour market works in practice (and hence the effect of future policy changes), future growth potential (weak by post-WW2 standards but perhaps AI will save us...), and what to look out for in the wage growth data.
Yes, you're right, skills do not necessarily equal qualifications, and vice versa. Though I'd say the 60%+ drop in participation in the last decade is still something to worry about.
February 4, 2026 at 12:35 PM
Yes, you're right, skills do not necessarily equal qualifications, and vice versa. Though I'd say the 60%+ drop in participation in the last decade is still something to worry about.
It's worth noting too there's a 7% drop in adults taking part in FE courses in England. Not uncoincidentally the Government cut the budget for 25-26 by c7%. This follows it halving in real terms since 2010. Fortunately there's no need economically or socially to improve skills, so that's fine...
February 4, 2026 at 11:07 AM
It's worth noting too there's a 7% drop in adults taking part in FE courses in England. Not uncoincidentally the Government cut the budget for 25-26 by c7%. This follows it halving in real terms since 2010. Fortunately there's no need economically or socially to improve skills, so that's fine...
Should've said, this is all England-only data. And this isn't just about Government, it's also about what Mayor's prioritise as 2/3 of the £1.4bn adult skills fund is devolved to them in England.
February 4, 2026 at 11:04 AM
Should've said, this is all England-only data. And this isn't just about Government, it's also about what Mayor's prioritise as 2/3 of the £1.4bn adult skills fund is devolved to them in England.
These core English & maths skills are vital for work, future economy (e.g. to use AI properly), social inclusion, accessing public services etc. Yet don't seem to be a priority for Government & indeed policy & further funding cuts risk taking us backwards. We need more people to care about this.
February 4, 2026 at 11:00 AM
These core English & maths skills are vital for work, future economy (e.g. to use AI properly), social inclusion, accessing public services etc. Yet don't seem to be a priority for Government & indeed policy & further funding cuts risk taking us backwards. We need more people to care about this.
I’m increasingly convinced that the best way to be well off is to have or come into money or have well off parents who give you money. Am available for speaking events or newspaper columns on the topic.
January 26, 2026 at 5:08 PM
I’m increasingly convinced that the best way to be well off is to have or come into money or have well off parents who give you money. Am available for speaking events or newspaper columns on the topic.
Reposted by Stephen Evans
Not actually job losses (Outflows from HMRC employment) much, decline is in recruitment (Inflow to HMRC employment). Which predominantly affects young labour market entrants. But your points on Nat Ins. etc. may have affected recruitment more.
January 20, 2026 at 5:34 PM
Not actually job losses (Outflows from HMRC employment) much, decline is in recruitment (Inflow to HMRC employment). Which predominantly affects young labour market entrants. But your points on Nat Ins. etc. may have affected recruitment more.
3. Bonus chart. Lots of discussion about reduced dynamism hitting UK growth. People moving into work or changing jobs as % of total employment has definitely dropped post financial crisis, from 9.5-10% to c8% per quarter. Equivalent to c1m fewer p.a. Career change less common too.
January 20, 2026 at 10:43 AM
3. Bonus chart. Lots of discussion about reduced dynamism hitting UK growth. People moving into work or changing jobs as % of total employment has definitely dropped post financial crisis, from 9.5-10% to c8% per quarter. Equivalent to c1m fewer p.a. Career change less common too.
2. Meanwhile pay growth remains both too weak (we're £12k pa worse off than on pre-financial crisis trends) & too strong (c3% is consistent with inflation target & 1% productivity growth; it's 3.9% in private sector & 7.8% in public sector with timing effects driving that mainly).
January 20, 2026 at 7:57 AM
2. Meanwhile pay growth remains both too weak (we're £12k pa worse off than on pre-financial crisis trends) & too strong (c3% is consistent with inflation target & 1% productivity growth; it's 3.9% in private sector & 7.8% in public sector with timing effects driving that mainly).
Takes me a long time to get to the office but something like this happens now and again!
January 19, 2026 at 10:16 PM
Takes me a long time to get to the office but something like this happens now and again!