Stephen Semler
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stephensemler.bsky.social
Stephen Semler
@stephensemler.bsky.social
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Policy analyst/advisor. Newsletter: stephensemler.com
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stephensemler.bsky.social
A common defense of Biden’s behavior from Democratic partisans is that Medicaid continuous coverage originated as a temporary provision, so it should be temporary.

That’s precisely the same argument Republicans are making now in opposing the extension of the enhanced ACA subsidies:
Democrats (2023–24): Medicaid continuous coverage originated among many temporary emergency measures authorized by legislation passed between March 2020 and March 2021 in response to COVID-19. The Medicaid unwinding was just a return to the status quo ante. In fact, more people are enrolled in Medicaid now than before the pandemic! Republicans (2025): The ACA Marketplace enhanced subsidies were one of many temporary provisions enacted through the 2021 American Rescue Plan and other emergency legislation. The expiration of the subsidies is just a return to the status quo ante. In fact, despite the projected drop in Marketplace coverage, enrollment will still be higher than it was before the pandemic!
November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
I understand that linking Biden to mass Medicaid disenrollment is considered controversial on this website. It shouldn’t be. He did everything a president could do to ensure it happened & was clear in his intent to funnel people from Medicaid to the Marketplace
www.stephensemler.com/p/democrats-...
Medicaid continuous coverage was linked to the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency—coverage would remain in effect so long as the emergency declaration did. It did not require funding from Congress—it was funded by formula-driven mandatory spending (not congressionally-approved discretionary). The President could end Medicaid continuous coverage by a) signing a bill delinking continuous coverage from the Public Health Emergency, or b) declaring an end to the Public Health Emergency. Biden did both. Biden’s budget for 2023 delinked Medicaid continuous coverage from the Public Health Emergency, and set April 1, 2023, as the start date for gradually defunding continuous coverage and allowing states to resume disenrollments (Div. FF, Title V, Sec. 5131). After urging its “swift passage,” Biden signed the bill into law on December 29, 2022. Had the bill not included that provision, Biden would have triggered Medicaid unwinding anyway after ending the Public Health Emergency in May 2023.
November 25, 2025 at 5:34 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
Biden doubled Affordable Care Act Marketplace enrollment by:
1) Spending more on Marketplace subsides ($124 billion last year alone)
2) Stripping millions of people’s Medicaid coverage

www.stephensemler.com/p/democrats-...

(Per enrollee, Marketplace coverage is far more expensive than Medicaid.)
Kicking millions off Medicaid in 2023 drove record ACA Marketplace growth in 2024. This line chart shows the growth in Medicaid and CHIP enrollees under continuous coverage — from 72 million to 95 million — and the decline under unwinding, from 95 million to 78 million. It also shows that Marketplace enrollment grew from 12 million to 16 million after enhanced subsidies started in March 2021, and from 16 million to 24 million as millions were kicked off Medicaid. Enrollment data: KFF, Medicaid.gov. Figures as of January 2025 for Marketplace, June 2025 for Medicaid. Unwinding to be completed by the end of December 2025.
November 25, 2025 at 5:31 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
Democrats caving on ACA Marketplace subsidies looks even worse once you remember the Biden administration pushed millions from Medicaid into the Marketplace, promising affordable coverage.

www.stephensemler.com/p/democrats-...
Kicking millions off Medicaid in 2023 drove record ACA Marketplace growth in 2024. This line chart shows the growth in Medicaid and CHIP enrollees under continuous coverage — from 72 million to 95 million — and the decline under unwinding, from 95 million to 78 million. It also shows that Marketplace enrollment grew from 12 million to 16 million after enhanced subsidies started in March 2021, and from 16 million to 24 million as millions were kicked off Medicaid. Enrollment data: KFF, Medicaid.gov. Figures as of January 2025 for Marketplace, June 2025 for Medicaid. Unwinding to be completed by the end of December 2025.
November 24, 2025 at 8:14 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
It costs about $8.7 million a day to operate the aircraft carrier that Trump now has in the Caribbean, though that won't seem like much next to the cost of a war for oil in Venezuela.
Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group Enters U.S. Fourth Fleet 11 November 2025 From USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) Public Affairs The Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group, led by the world's largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), entered the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility (USSOUTHCOM AOR), Nov. 11. The maritime forces' arrival comes after Secretary of War Pete Hegseth directed the Carrier Strike Group to support the President's directive to dismantle Transnational Criminal Organizations and counter narco-terrorism in defense of the Homeland.
November 12, 2025 at 4:51 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
The ICE budget is higher than all but about 15 militaries worldwide, and we’re seeing what kind of country that gives us.

www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-budget...
ICE budget set to triple to $30 billion in 2026. Trump request: $11 billion, plus estimated $19 billion from reconciliation bill. The red line chart shows gradual increase in the ICE budget from 2016 to 2025, before skyrocketing to a projected $30 billion in 2026. 2026 estimate based on Trump's budget request and White House documents stating that 25% of reconciliation homeland security funding is for 2026.
November 8, 2025 at 10:37 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
Cornyn's totally right regarding the election takeaways.

That said, I have no idea what he's talking about re: "very good success internationally" — Trump's foreign policy is a dumpster fire.

www.semafor.com/article/11/0...
"Maybe one of the only real lessons of the election is a reminder that it always turns out to be economic issues, kitchen-table issues," said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas. "I'm glad the president's had some very good success internationally, but that's not what motivates voters. I think he does [understand that]. I know his team does."
November 8, 2025 at 10:02 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
Trump might be too dumb or checked out to listen, but this is sound advice from GOP lawmakers. They watched voters punish Biden (and Dems broadly) for prioritizing a dogshit foreign policy over domestic needs. Now they're watching Trump do the same thing and voters respond the same way.
Prioritize economy over foreign policy, Republicans tell Trump Shelby Talcott and Burgess Everett Nov 7, 2025
November 8, 2025 at 9:59 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
Will is arguing that the very poorest among us don’t matter, which is abhorrent, but he’s also wrong in that it’s not just the very poorest who are struggling.

www.stephensemler.com/p/americans-...
Economic insecurity worsened from 2019 to 2024. This graph compares 2019 and 2024 across four barometers of financial difficulty. The numbers refer to the percent of the U.S. population experiencing each difficulty. Low/very low financial well-being: 17% in 2019, 22% in 2024. Overdraft or NSF fees: 25%, 29%. Fluctuations in income: 24%, 31%. Difficulty paying bills: 40%, 43%. Data: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
November 8, 2025 at 9:31 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
There’s no contest for who can ignore the most data, but if there were, Will would be winning
November 8, 2025 at 9:22 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
Poverty increasing hurt Dems, but economic insecurity increasing at every level also hurt Dems
Financial hardship and instability have worsened since 2019. This graph compares 2019 and 2024 across four barometers of financial difficulty. The numbers refer to the percent of the U.S. population experiencing each difficulty. Low/very low financial well-being: 17% in 2019, 22% in 2024. Overdraft or NSF fees: 25%, 29%. Fluctuations in income: 24%, 31%. Difficulty paying bills: 40%, 43%. Data: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
November 8, 2025 at 9:20 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
USDA hasn’t released its data for 2024 yet, but the number of people experiencing food insecurity almost certainly increased again.

And will increase yet again in 2025, which is why Trump canceled the food security reports after this year.

www.stephensemler.com/p/a-couple-c...
US food insecurity increased 40% since 2021. This graph shows the number of people living in food insecure households in millions. 2019, 35.2; 2020, 38.3; 2021, 33.8; 2022, 44.2; 2023, 47.4. Data: US Department of Agriculture.
November 8, 2025 at 9:07 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
There’s more subjective anxiety because there’s more objective insecurity. The reason so many people think they’re worse off compared to before the pandemic is because they are.
www.stephensemler.com/p/americans-...
Economic anxiety remains far above pre-pandemic levels. This graph shows the percent of Americans very or moderately worried about not being able to make minimum credit card payments, pay rent or mortgage, or maintain their standard of living from 2019 to 2025. All three show a dip in 2021 before climbing beyond 2019’s levels. Data: Gallup. Economic insecurity worsened from 2019 to 2024. This graph compares 2019 and 2024 across four barometers of financial difficulty. The numbers refer to the percent of the U.S. population experiencing each difficulty. Low/very low financial well-being: 17% in 2019, 22% in 2024. Overdraft or NSF fees: 25%, 29%. Fluctuations in income: 24%, 31%. Difficulty paying bills: 40%, 43%. Data: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
November 8, 2025 at 6:18 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
Inflation and prices has been voters’ top concern since June 2022.
November 7, 2025 at 1:12 AM
stephensemler.bsky.social
Lockheed Martin, Raytheon/RTX, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman spent $89 billion on stock buybacks and dividends over the last four years.

Two-thirds of that came from US taxpayers:
Four military contractors spent $89 billion on buybacks and dividends in four years. Taxpayers funded $58 billion of it, based on each company’s government revenue. Stock buybacks and dividends, by contractor, in billions of dollars: Lockheed Martin, 34; Raytheon (RTX), 31; Northrop Grumman, 14; General Dynamics, 11; total, 89. Estimated stock buybacks and dividends funded by taxpayers: Lockheed Martin, 25; Raytheon (RTX), 14; Northrop Grumman, 12; General Dynamics, 7; total, 58. Data: 2021 to 2024. Taxpayer-funded buybacks and dividends estimated by multiplying reported buybacks and dividends in company 10-K filings by each firm’s share of revenue from U.S. government sales. Company totals may not match column totals due to rounding. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.
November 4, 2025 at 5:29 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
Four military contractors, four years, $89 billion in buybacks and dividends.

$58 billion of that came from US taxpayers, enough to deliver SNAP benefits to 41.7 million people for the next seven months.
www.stephensemler.com/p/taxpayers-...
Four military contractors spent $89 billion on buybacks and dividends in four years. Taxpayers funded $58 billion of it, based on each company’s government revenue. Stock buybacks and dividends, by contractor, in billions of dollars: Lockheed Martin, 34; Raytheon (RTX), 31; Northrop Grumman, 14; General Dynamics, 11; total, 89. Estimated stock buybacks and dividends funded by taxpayers: Lockheed Martin, 25; Raytheon (RTX), 14; Northrop Grumman, 12; General Dynamics, 7; total, 58. Data: 2021 to 2024. Taxpayer-funded buybacks and dividends estimated by multiplying reported buybacks and dividends in company 10-K filings by each firm’s share of revenue from U.S. government sales. Company totals may not match column totals due to rounding. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.
November 4, 2025 at 5:26 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
SNAP recipients will only receive partial benefits this month. It’s a problem, apparently, to subsidize groceries, but it’s somehow fine to subsidize arms company shareholders.

Spice up your next holiday gathering by bringing this up at the dinner table
www.stephensemler.com/p/taxpayers-...
Four military contractors spent $89 billion on buybacks and dividends in four years. Taxpayers funded $58 billion of it, based on each company’s government revenue. Stock buybacks and dividends, by contractor, in billions of dollars: Lockheed Martin, 34; Raytheon (RTX), 31; Northrop Grumman, 14; General Dynamics, 11; total, 89. Estimated stock buybacks and dividends funded by taxpayers: Lockheed Martin, 25; Raytheon (RTX), 14; Northrop Grumman, 12; General Dynamics, 7; total, 58. Data: 2021 to 2024. Taxpayer-funded buybacks and dividends estimated by multiplying reported buybacks and dividends in company 10-K filings by each firm’s share of revenue from U.S. government sales. Company totals may not match column totals due to rounding. Chart: Stephen Semler. Read more: stephensemler.com
November 4, 2025 at 2:36 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
Four military contractors, four years, $89 billion in buybacks and dividends.

$58 billion of that came from US taxpayers, enough to deliver SNAP benefits to its 41.7 million recipients for the next seven months.
www.stephensemler.com/p/taxpayers-...
Four military contractors spent $89 billion on buybacks and dividends in four years. Taxpayers funded $58 billion of it, based on each company’s government revenue. Stock buybacks and dividends, by contractor, in billions of dollars: Lockheed Martin, 34; Raytheon (RTX), 31; Northrop Grumman, 14; General Dynamics, 11; total, 89. Estimated stock buybacks and dividends funded by taxpayers: Lockheed Martin, 25; Raytheon (RTX), 14; Northrop Grumman, 12; General Dynamics, 7; total, 58. Data: 2021 to 2024. Taxpayer-funded buybacks and dividends estimated by multiplying reported buybacks and dividends in company 10-K filings by each firm’s share of revenue from U.S. government sales. Company totals may not match column totals due to rounding.
November 4, 2025 at 2:33 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
If economic insecurity is just low self-esteem, nothing that can’t be fixed through the power of positive thinking, then why does every fucking graph on it sync with the rise and fall of the pandemic welfare state?

www.stephensemler.com/p/how-the-mo...
www.stephensemler.com/p/americans-...
October 25, 2025 at 3:06 AM
stephensemler.bsky.social
No, widespread hardship under Biden wasn’t just in people’s heads. Repeating this lie is the political poison that ushered in Trump 2.0

www.stephensemler.com/p/homelessne...

www.stephensemler.com/p/americans-...
U.S. homelessness has increased 33% since 2020. This orange line chart shows the number of people experiencing homelessness from 2010 to 2024. The line is relatively steady until it shoots upwards in 2022. In 2020, 580,466 people experienced homelessness. In 2024, 771,480 people did. Data comes from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Figures for 2021 are unavailable due to pandemic-related disruptions to counts. Economic insecurity worsened from 2019 to 2024. This graph compares 2019 and 2024 across four barometers of financial difficulty. The numbers refer to the percent of the U.S. population experiencing each difficulty. Low/very low financial well-being: 17% in 2019, 22% in 2024. Overdraft or NSF fees: 25%, 29%. Fluctuations in income: 24%, 31%. Difficulty paying bills: 40%, 43%. Data: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
October 25, 2025 at 2:51 AM
stephensemler.bsky.social
Even after the ceasefire deal, Israel still holds thousands of Palestinians hostage
www.stephensemler.com/p/israel-sti...
Israel is holding 4,000 more Palestinians captive than pre-October 2023. Including 580 more hostages in administrative detention. September 2023 column: 5,088 total prisoners, including 1,264 administrative detainees and 3,824 other Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. October 2025 column: 9,106 total prisoners, including 1,844 administrative detainees and 7,262 other Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. Post-ceasefire estimate based on reported 1 October 2025 data. Data: Israel Prison Service. Administrative detainees are de facto hostages, held indefinitely without charge or trial. Chart: Stephen Semler.
October 16, 2025 at 12:19 AM
stephensemler.bsky.social
The US could've forced Israel to accept a ceasefire two years ago. Instead, it spent $38 billion enabling Israel's genocide of Palestinians in Gaza and fighting a regional war on Israel's behalf.
www.stephensemler.com/p/us-has-spe...
The US has spent at least $38 billion on Israel since October 2023. The single column chart shows $38.2 billion in US military spending on Israel from October 2023 through September 2025, including: $18 billion arming Israel, $6.1 billion defending Israel, $14.1 billion waging war on Israel’s behalf. Data: Pentagon financial records, enacted legislation, media reports, author analysis. Figures are conservative estimates in constant 2025 US dollars.
October 13, 2025 at 10:25 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
Had US political leaders followed US human rights law, acted in their country’s interests, or shown some semblance of morality, US military spending on Israel since Oct 2023 would not be $38 billion.
www.stephensemler.com/p/us-has-spe...
The US has spent at least $38 billion on Israel since October 2023. The single column chart shows $38.2 billion in US military spending on Israel from October 2023 through September 2025, including: $18 billion arming Israel, $6.1 billion defending Israel, $14.1 billion waging war on Israel’s behalf. Data: Pentagon financial records, enacted legislation, media reports, author analysis. Figures are conservative estimates in constant 2025 US dollars.
October 12, 2025 at 1:23 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
In two years, the US spent at least *$38 billion* sending weapons to Israel, protecting it against counterattacks, and fighting a regional war on its behalf.

$52 million per day, $2 million per hour. www.stephensemler.com/p/us-has-spe...
The US has spent at least $38 billion on Israel since October 2023. The single column chart shows $38.2 billion in US military spending on Israel from October 2023 through September 2025, including: $18 billion arming Israel, $6.1 billion defending Israel, $14.1 billion waging war on Israel’s behalf. Data: Pentagon financial records, enacted legislation, media reports, author analysis. Figures are conservative estimates in constant 2025 US dollars.
October 10, 2025 at 9:55 PM
stephensemler.bsky.social
Trump has no answer for this and is increasingly desperate to distract people from that fact
October 1, 2025 at 4:03 AM