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Reposted by Stephen Semler

Sarah Lazare @sarahlazare.bsky.social · 2d

One thing to understand about what's happening now is that on Oct 1, the deportation machine's budget increased dramatically: $170 billion in NEW funding, averaging to $42.5 billion per year. That's just below the Israeli military's annual budget. It's the equivalent of 13th biggest army on earth.

The 13th Largest Army in World Is Unleashing Violence in Chicago

As federal agents kill and use extreme force in Chicago, their budget surges.

inthesetimes.com

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

Sarah Lazare @sarahlazare.bsky.social · 2d

@stephensemler.bsky.social was sounding the alarm back in July. Always read his work. He follows this stuff in granular detail and brings a really sharp analysis. www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-budget...

ICE budget set to triple in 2026

Polygraph | Newsletter n°311 | 22 Jul 2025

www.stephensemler.com

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

The Guardian @theguardian.com · 4d

Tories to pledge to create immigration taskforce modelled on Trump’s Ice

Proposed ‘removals force’ will be tasked with deporting 150,000 people a year in bid to tackle illegal immigration The Conservatives will pledge to create a new immigration taskforce modelled on Donald Trump’s controversial Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) agency, the Guardian understands. The party’s leader, Kemi Badenoch, is expected to announce the policy on Sunday as it heads into its annual conference following a year of historic low poll ratings. The proposed “removals force” will be tasked with deporting 150,000 people a year in a bid to tackle illegal immigration. Continue reading...

www.theguardian.com

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 4d

Similar to those “defensive” airstrikes we always hear the U.S. doing in the Middle East, I guess.

Reposted by Stephen Semler

Carl Beijer @carlbeijer.bsky.social · 6d

I get that you are innumerate Will but that is not what "zero evidence" means.

If there are two charts showing two different measures of poverty and one is allegedly more "commonly used" that does not mean that the other chart does not count as evidence. Once again you are misrepresenting data

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

aaron from queens from twitter @aaronnarraph.bsky.social · 5d

43% of Democrats (52% of 18-29 voters) say foreign policy and Israel will play a role in their vote in the 2026 primaries. (81% say the economy and healthcare, of course.)

80% want to reduce support for Israel
74% want an arms embargo
72% say it's a genocide
65% want sanctions

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 5d

No, neocons are very much ideologically flawed and do want bad things. They’re not good at heart, please stop saying they are

ghost malone ergo propter malone @proptermalone.bsky.social · 5d

I say this a lot but the neocons weren’t bad because they wanted bad things, they were bad because they were catastrophically wrong about how to achieve good things.

*that is not an argument for letting them drive.*

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 7d

Poverty numbers do look better if you use a poverty measure that ignores taxes, transfers, and other factors that significantly affect household resources. That measure (OPM) also uses a national poverty threshold, so it doesn’t account for cost-of-living variations between different places.

Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 10d

If you look at the more commonly utilized poverty measure, the OPM, you see that poverty actually declined over Biden’s presidency, and ended in the same place it was in 2019, when virtually everyone agreed the economy was roaring. There is zero evidence of a weak economy here.

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 7d

But by all means use that flawed measure if the better method doesn’t produce results that fit your narrative.

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

Common Wealth @cmmonwealth.bsky.social · 6d

🚨 In just 2 weeks, we'll be hosting a free online panel with @cplusc.bsky.social to launch a new collaboration: @transitionsec.bsky.social

🎙️ @stephensemler.bsky.social @iliasalami.bsky.social @triofrancos.bsky.social
🪑 @lalehkhalili.bsky.social

Reserve your spot now! 🔗👇

War, Climate Crisis and the Economy: Transition Security Project Launch

A collaboration between Common Wealth and Climate & Community Institute to investigate the US and UK military industrial complexes.

shorturl.at

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

Transition Security Project @transitionsec.bsky.social · 6d

🚨 2 WEEKS!

We'll be launching the Transition Security Project, investigating US & UK military industrial complexes.

Join our online panel on war, climate crisis & the economy.

🎙️ @stephensemler.bsky.social @iliasalami.bsky.social @triofrancos.bsky.social @lalehkhalili.bsky.social
shorturl.at/njU0q

War, Climate Crisis and the Economy: Transition Security Project Launch

A collaboration between Common Wealth and Climate & Community Institute to investigate the US and UK military industrial complexes.

shorturl.at

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 7d

“It is not enough to restore where we were prior to the pandemic. We need to build a stronger economy that does not leave anyone behind — we need to build back better.”
— Joe Biden, early 2021

Jacobin @jacobinmag.bsky.social · 14d

A new Census Bureau report establishes that poverty increased over the course of the Biden administration.

The data is yet another rebuke to the politicians and commentators who insisted economic conditions under Joe Biden were great.

It’s Official: Poverty Got Worse Under Joe Biden

A new Census Bureau report establishes that poverty increased over the course of the Biden administration. The data is yet another rebuke to the politicians and commentators who insisted economic conditions under Joe Biden were great.

jacobin.com

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 7d

@donmoyn.bsky.social where in the article does it blame Biden?

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 7d

Trump has no answer for this and is increasingly desperate to distract people from that fact

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 7d

But by all means use that flawed measure if the better method doesn’t produce results that fit your narrative.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 7d

Poverty numbers do look better if you use a poverty measure that ignores taxes, transfers, and other factors that significantly affect household resources. That measure (OPM) also uses a national poverty threshold, so it doesn’t account for cost-of-living variations between different places.

Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 10d

If you look at the more commonly utilized poverty measure, the OPM, you see that poverty actually declined over Biden’s presidency, and ended in the same place it was in 2019, when virtually everyone agreed the economy was roaring. There is zero evidence of a weak economy here.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 7d

“It is not enough to restore where we were prior to the pandemic. We need to build a stronger economy that does not leave anyone behind — we need to build back better.”
— Joe Biden, early 2021

Jacobin @jacobinmag.bsky.social · 14d

A new Census Bureau report establishes that poverty increased over the course of the Biden administration.

The data is yet another rebuke to the politicians and commentators who insisted economic conditions under Joe Biden were great.

It’s Official: Poverty Got Worse Under Joe Biden

A new Census Bureau report establishes that poverty increased over the course of the Biden administration. The data is yet another rebuke to the politicians and commentators who insisted economic conditions under Joe Biden were great.

jacobin.com

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

davehunter.bsky.social @davehunter.bsky.social · 7d

Where did you get the idea that this information was presented without context. It is stated in the article again and again that poverty went down because of COVID policy and went up because the policies ended.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 7d

Trump has no answer for this and is increasingly desperate to distract people from that fact

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 7d

@donmoyn.bsky.social where in the article does it blame Biden?

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez @aoc.bsky.social · 7d

Most of the power authoritarians have is freely given. We should not comply with them in advance.

Trump is far weaker than he looks. So is the GOP. We should draw them out, drain them at every opportunity, and fight for people’s wellbeing at every turn.

We have been sent here to fight for people.

Acyn @acyn.bsky.social · 8d

AOC: I think there's two things that are happening at once: One, there absolutely is an unprecedented abuse of power, destruction of norms, erosion of our government and our democracy in order to prop up an authoritarian style of governance

However, they are weaker than they look…

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 8d

The Census Bureau research was completed while Biden was still in office. Also, if you’re trying to dunk Census Bureau civil servants, what are you actually doing

aven228 @aven228.bsky.social · 11d

This “report” came out one week after this guy 👇 took over as interim head of the Census Bureau.

George Cook: A Trump appointee has been picked to be the acting head of the U.S. Census Bureau, replacing a career economist in the interim job …

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 8d

Stancil called me a dishonest hack…for citing Census Bureau data.

Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 11d

Semler is a dishonest hack, and a pied piper for braindead lefties who are more interested in dunking on Biden than examining why it may be strategically unwise, for their own project especially, to argue that cyclical safety net policies will provoke an apocalyptic backlash if not made permanent

Jacobin @jacobinmag.bsky.social · 14d

A new Census Bureau report establishes that poverty increased over the course of the Biden administration.

The data is yet another rebuke to the politicians and commentators who insisted economic conditions under Joe Biden were great.

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 8d

"Hack stuff" is using SPM? It’s a poverty measure specifically developed to better indicate quality of life than the traditional measure. My god

Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 10d

This is little more than a lie: they worsened if you use a measure that specifically captures the program that expired. In short, conditions worsened if you cherry pick a measure you know will be bad. Hack stuff. And it’s embarrassing so many lefties think this is evidence they were right.

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Reposted by Stephen Semler

Stephen Semler @stephensemler.bsky.social · 8d

Stancil thinks that anti-poverty programs shouldn’t be accounted for when measuring poverty.

Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 10d

The reason Semler is a dishonest hack is he keeps using a specific metric - the Supplemental Poverty Measure - to argue the economy got worse under Biden, because the SPM shows poverty increasing. But the measure includes government supports and thus is affected by the expiration of COVID programs.

Splainer (Material Conditions Acknowledger) @splainer.bsky.social · 10d

In this 4-blueskeet thread Will Stancil, based on no argument, calls Stephen Semler a "dishonest hack" and "pied piper for [the] braindead", part of a group of "wreckers" & "dolts" who "should be excluded" as "incapable of [...] productive partnership with honest and good-faith progressives". ...

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