Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 28

Econ consensus is that the US recession question is basically a coin flip now. A lot of the people who like attaching probabilities to these sorts of things are in the 40-60% range. Markets currently taking the under

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 27

“Overall currency hedging by foreign investors in US stocks stands at 23%, well below the near 50% level seen in 2020, State Street Corp.’s custodial data shows”

Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · Apr 27

Investors outside the US are taking a one-two punch from stock and dollar losses — and rushing into hedges for protection

Unhedged and Burned, Stock Investors Brace for More Dollar Pain

Traders had increasingly given up on currency hedges. Now, that’s taking a toll.

bloom.bg

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 27

while Medicaid cuts and tax hikes for wealthy running into political opposition. It looks like Trump is going to push for his working class tax cuts. Channeling income to low income households will mean more stimulative which is a factor for Fed policy

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 27

Tariffs dominating headlines, but fiscal side getting v interesting. Extending TCJA is table stakes, but further tax cuts for working class were a big part of his campaign. Market is skeptical on these with some expecting fiscal tightening. But DOGE a dud, defense budget looking higher,

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 27

The challenge here is where will the growth impulse come from. Many expected recession in 2022, but a lot of pandemic savings and had roaring 20s in re-opening/services. Hard to see people pay $1,000 for a Taylor Swift ticket in this economy

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 27

Good point, models and sentiment type measures break down if you have a structural shift

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 27

Interesting discussion on “macro v models” on JPM at any rate podcast. Contrasting medium term macro theme of shorting the dollar and shorter term FX models seeing euro as stretched on most metrics

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 27

I’ve been crushing podcasts recently. Some such good content out there. A golden age if you will

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 27

Understanding the whole tariff situation is a lot of work, easier just to watch the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator… which I learned about this morning

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 26

“An operator who says things that sound smart unless you pay attention” - Krugman on Kevin Warsh 😂

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 26

Wow what an iconic photo. Leaders of the free world speaking with the President of the United States

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 26

“While my bigger picture view remains that we are at the front edge of a regime change towards a weaker USD… EURUSD looks tired for now. Everything and everyone looks tired”

www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/magazin...

Magazine Trifecta

It goes against my core view, but I must admit The Economist is screaming BUY AMERICA

www.spectramarkets.com

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 25

Great read, although I’m slightly disappointed it doesn’t include the phrase “yippee-ki-yay”. Whether the sell off was swap/basis trades or foreign investors selling is often referred to binary terms, but this is a good reminder that there is a feedback loop as the vol impacts sharpe for investors

Robin Wigglesworth @robinwigglesworth.ft.com · Apr 25

The Treasury market has gotten hooked on leveraged hedge fund trades. That means that the “yippy” behaviour we saw earlier this month is probably going to become more common. on.ft.com/3RAflHR

Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 24

This is great and covers two of my favourite themes: risk cycles and regime changes. The Russia-Ukraine war and sanctions was a regime change for gold/real yields. This risk cycle, foreign investors bought a lot of US assets… and the tariff driven unwind may mean a USD regime shift

Dow @dow.bsky.social · Apr 24

Did an interview yesterday with @pipczar.bsky.social about the the recent issues that have been raised about the role of the dollar and treasuries, and about what’s really driving gold and what the price action is saying about its short-term prospects.
tradersummit.net/youve-got-th...

You've Got the Dollar/Stocks/Bonds Correlation Wrong!

You've Got the Dollar/Stocks/Bonds Correlation Wrong! - Mark Dow of Behavioural Macro gives his views on a wide range of markets.

tradersummit.net

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 24

Ok that’s helpful, thanks

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 24

Hi Iñaki, do you have any research/data on FX hedge ratios of foreign holdings of US fixed income?

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 24

👀

Tony Tassell @tonytassell.bsky.social · Apr 24

The dollar has further to fall - strong oped here from Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius www.ft.com/content/976e...

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 23

Glib and spineless Bessent appears to have given way to emboldened voice of reason Bessent. Market stress an obvious catalyst and hopefully now more of a moderating force, as many hoped

Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 23

“Bessent criticized Musk for overpromising and under-delivering budget cuts with DOGE. Musk clapped back by calling Bessent a "Soros agent" and accusing him of having run "a failed hedge fund”
Spicy 🌶️

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · Apr 23

“It was two billionaire, middle-aged men thinking it was WWE in the hall of the West Wing," one witness said ..

“.. the president saw it, and then they carried it down the hall, and that's when they did it again ..”

“.. It was loud. And I mean, loud."

@axios.com
www.axios.com/2025/04/23/m...

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 23

Are you not entertained…

Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Mar 4

It’s all about the last few strides

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 23

markets provided the guardrails, but it wasn’t so much about the strike price of the policy put, it was the breakdown in cross asset correlations

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 22

6.30am and already read four pieces on the end of US exceptionalism: Giles, timiraos, authers, and Cullen Roche. When a theme goes viral…

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 21

Given this market sell off, is Fox News ramping up the pressure for policy reversals or calling for the market to be closed for the day?
Let’s find out…

Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 21

Looking forward to testing the El-erian thesis that bonds didn’t react to Trump’s Powell “termination” post because the market recognises Powell has been late and is a poor communicator

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Stephen @stephent.bsky.social · Apr 21

One day, shorting gold because your favourite model, technical indicator, or sentiment survey said so will be a profitable trade. In the meantime it’s fighting a factor identified by Blanchflower as: the economics of going outside and walking around

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