Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 18m

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 23m

Let's see how hard the business department lobbies for higher drug costs then.

1

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 23m

Despite my opinionating earlier I do recognise the industrial policy problem this presents. I propose the following solution: divide drug costs into their healthcare value and their 'dodgy economic stimulus/bung to industry' value. The latter comes out of the business department's budget.

3 2

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 25m

This is what I come to this website for.

1 1

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 43m

1 2

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 45m

Don't know about how £/QALY trades off against budget but the main papers are by Karl Claxton & co. At York university on the average spend per QALY of the NHS (£14k ISH from memory) and public health spending (£4k is I think).

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 1h

Also I got to see pictures of other people's cats, which was great too.

1

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 2h

I remember reading something about how some countries got really good at producing devices that weren't the best in the world but we're almost as good at a fraction of the cost. I think we could do with some of that.

1 1

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 2h

Yes, and that it's possible to shift the model for innovation in healthcare towards things that do what we can now but cheaper and better.

2 1

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 2h

I've been able to meet (sort of) and chat to a lot of interesting and funny people, some of whom even work in the same or related fields to me.

Now, if we could just do something about *waves vaguely* all that other stuff, that'd be just great.

Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · 9h

Has anything great happened in your life because of social media?

1 1

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 2h

Enjoyed this pluralistic.net/2025/09/27/e...

Pluralistic: The real (economic) AI apocalypse is nigh (27 Sep 2025) – Pluralistic: Daily links from Cory Doctorow

pluralistic.net

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 2h

SPACE WEATHER!

Paging @leighfletcher.bsky.social

Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 2h

The new modelling suite available to the Met Office focuses on how space weather can influence the thermosphere and ionosphere on Earth.

Complementing existing models, this system introduces new capability for modelling impacts on satellites, aviation and communications.

1

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 2h

I try to just say that I disagree and why I disagree.

I do not always live up to this. Especially with my kids.

Even better, ask why they believe what they do and try to get them thinking of ways their reasons might not be good. But I find that a lot harder.

1

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 2h

Lalalala I can't hear you.

Obviously you're right about all that. I don't seriously expect anyone to do what I'm suggesting. Final thing before I go outside:

It's a hard sell, not impossible. And I don't think the public are much exposed to this argument (kudos to the Times for articulating it).

1

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 2h

Congratulations on retaining whatever is left of your sanity then. I think I'd have given up and taken up goat farming or something.

1 1

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 2h

For how many of those years was the paper in submission?

1

Reposted by Steve Senior

Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 1d

This is a nice paper. It faces down a common problem: in order to explain to why a common approach cannot work even in theory, we first need to teach a framework in which regression is not magic that tells us which variables on right cause the variable on left. It's exhausting.

Anyway great paper!

Peter Tennant @pwgtennant.bsky.social · 1d

academic.oup.com/ije/article/...

Analyses of ‘change scores’ do not estimate causal effects in observational data

AbstractBackground. In longitudinal data, it is common to create ‘change scores’ by subtracting measurements taken at baseline from those taken at follow-u

academic.oup.com

1 13 67

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 3h

I mean, we have things that we know work and cost less and we're not doing them because they aren't drugs and shareholders aren't getting rich off them.

Sorry, I appear to be trapped in a feedback look of spicy takes. Going to watch some cat videos to reset.

1

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 3h

If you need me, my phone will be on airplane mode for a few weeks in the hope of some big prize win.

Doug Mack @douglasmack.bsky.social · 8h

the most delightful version of logging on to see what news you've missed

Dr Ramsdell, whose phone had been on airplane mode when the Nobel committee tried to call him, told the BBC's Newshour Programme that his first response when his wife said, "You've won the Nobel prize" was: "I did not."

To which Ms O'Neill replied that she had 200 text messages that suggested he had.

4

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 3h

I think I might be persuadable if we've reached the position where the marginal QALY return on e.g. public health spending has reached the same value as for drugs. Until then, it's just a formula for higher NHS spending AND worse population health. It's always the opportunity cost that gets you.

2 1

Reposted by Steve Senior

Institute of Alcohol Studies @ias.org.uk · 3h

“We often think of alcohol harm as a public health issue, but this research shows it’s a national economic problem."

A new report from @ippr.org reveals the economic costs of alcohol harm, with 1 in 3 UK workers calling in sick after work drinks.

Read more:
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

One in three UK workers have called in sick after work drinks, survey finds

IPPR report warns of ‘productivity crisis’ and says many firms out of step with gen Z shift away from alcohol

www.theguardian.com

2 3

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 3h

4. No YouTube for me. The idea of having to appear on video every time I have a dumb opinion on something is horrifying to me. I don't understand selfies. I am old.

Maybe a substack where I charge £10 a month to churn our 20,000 word screeds on various subjects (let's face it, it'll be screening).

3

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 3h

3. I'd argue that dropping the NICE threshold to, say £10k/QALY doesn't stifle innovation, it just rewards innovation which makes the NHS more efficient over time instead of less efficient.

2 2

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 3h

2. Threats to leave haven't materialised in the past, it looks more like many stakeholders have seen the budget increases and have decided now is the time to try to shake more money from the NHS money tree. I'm not just looking at pharma here.

2 1

Steve Senior @stevensenior.bsky.social · 3h

1. The DT factor is hopefully temporary. So it wouldn't make sense to lock in higher costs and less efficient healthcare forever. So temporary fixes are probably the way to go.

1