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Stu Donovan

@studonovan.bsky.social

2.2K followers 960 following 310 posts

Economist researching cities, transport, housing, & energy. I focus on New Zealand & Australia, with European dalliances. And some chaff.

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Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · Nov 18

if you're passionate about cities and want to learn more about urban economics and its policy implications, then please consider using the form below to register your interest in the short courses that I run each year.
forms.office.com/pages/respon...

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · May 28

At least it gives me an opportunity to make nice graphs

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · May 28

Idk but if you pay me $799 than I can work it out

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · May 28

Two things remain on my to-do list:
1/ Assess how well the model performs at predicting the outcome of previous elections ("out-of-sample" performance); and
2/ Incorporate economic variables, such as unemployment, inflation, and interest rates, into the model.

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · May 28

Note the model accounts for:
- Sampling size ("uncertainty")
- House effects for individual pollsters
- Public versus internal polls
- Trends (by party)

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · May 28

The main findings are (see above figures for eye-candy):
1/ Support for the Government (light blue) and Opposition (rose) blocks is neck-and-neck, as are National (dark blue) and Labour (red); and
2/ Support for the smaller parties is sitting at similar levels to the last general election.

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · May 28

⭐ New Zealand polling update⭐

As we wait on new polling data following the recent budget here in New Zealand, I thought I'd crank the handle on my model that aggregates political polling data and infers the "average" levels of support for individual parties.

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · May 12

Put simply, turbo-charging urban development can complement the provision of infrastructure to rural areas, and vice versa.

I enjoyed writing the post and hope you enjoy reading it. Ka kite! Thanks again to @greaterauckland.bsky.social for facilitating these conversations.

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · May 12

The post finishes by observing how improving infrastructure in New Zealand's remote / rural communities can also deliver tangible value to urban areas, by providing access to obscenely beautiful natural environments. Like Wharariki Beach.

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · May 12

Infrastructure "cross-subsidies" from urban to rural areas are already happening, of course, and have happened for eons. For me, the focus should be on ensuring New Zealand has a sufficiently large and prosperous urban core to sustain these cross-subsidies into the future.

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · May 12

The post discusses how adopting policies to strengthen the urban core, such as upzoning to enable housing, can support remote, rural communities.

How? Well, it spreads the fixed costs of providing infrastructure over more people, reducing costs per person. E.g. the road to Rangiwhakaoma.

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · May 12

After a ten-year hiatus from blogging, the hard-working people at @greaterauckland.bsky.social (Greater Auckland) have kindly agreed to publish some of my rando musings as a guest blog post titled, "Why it takes a city to save a village, and vice versa."
www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2025/05/13/w...

Why it takes a city to save a village, and vice versa - Greater Auckland

This guest post by Dr Stuart Donovan looks at how strengthening the urban core can turn liabilities into assets. The header image of Rangiwhakaoma is by the author. I recently travelled to the remarka...

www.greaterauckland.org.nz

Reposted by Stu Donovan

Jessica de Heij @jdeheij.bsky.social · Apr 3

A great LinkedIn post inspired by a talk by @studonovan.bsky.social

“Making the most of our city means allowing more housing where the market wants it to be.”

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · May 1

Fwiw Motu Research is an independent economics and policy research institute based in Wellington, New Zealand.

In our work, we seek to help decision-makers grapple with complex social, environmental, and economic issues.

Put Q's here or send me a message 💪💪💪

More information about us:
www.motu.nz

Promoting well-informed and reasoned debate on public policy issues that matter to New Zealanders.

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · May 1

To apply, please email:
⭐ A cover letter + CV addressing the requirements for the position you are applying for
⭐ Copies of (or links to) three papers you have co-authored
⭐ Contact details for three people who are willing to act as your referee

📧 [email protected]

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · May 1

Do you have:
❓ a passion for research
❓ a PhD (or, are close to getting one)
❓ the desire to live + work in New Zealand

If you answered ✅ ✅ ✅, then you might want to consider applying for Research Fellow or Senior Fellow positions with us at Motu Research.

More deets:
www.motu.nz/about-us/wor...

Applications for Research Fellow and Senior Fellow | Motu

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · Mar 6

Alternatively, if you can't make it along to either of these two events but are keen to catch-up separately, then please send me a message and we can try and set something up.

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · Mar 6

Second, from 5.30-7.30pm I'm contributing to a panel event titled "Auckland 2050: Building the Future City" at the Auckland University of Technology, where I'll be making the case for a bigger and better Auckland.

You can register for this event here:
tpf.org.nz/auckland-205...

Auckland 2050 - Building the Future City 2 April 2025 | Property Foundation

Our expert panel explored the relevant tech and it’s applications, how to integrate AI into your business and highlighted important legal aspects.

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · Mar 6

First, from 10.30-11.30am I'll be giving a talk on urban policy reforms in New Zealand at the University of Auckland. Notwithstanding a decade of progress, I'm going to make the case for wider and deeper reforms.

You can register for this event here:
www.eventbrite.co.nz/e/urban-poli...

Urban policy reforms in New Zealand

Where are we now and where might we head next?

www.eventbrite.co.nz

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · Mar 6

To my dear friends in my beloved Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, New Zealand -- I'm pleased to be visiting your verdant shores on *2 April* for two public events that some of you might be interested in coming along to.

Find links to details + register below.

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · Feb 16

It'll depend on the context but high land prices supporting higher density development seems intuitive to me. But we might have achieved better outcomes from allowing 4-10 storeys in more places.

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · Feb 12

Thanks to Matt for his efforts, several people for helpful comments on an earlier draft, my employer Motu for supporting unfunded research, Land Use Policy for publishing what is an unusual paper, and the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam for paying the open access fee.

Onwards and upwards!

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · Feb 12

Main takeaways:
- the evidence suggests upzoning in Auckland led to more supply and lower rents
- these findings hold under plausible assumptions and are very robust to changes in those assumptions
- all available evidence indicates upzoning had large effects

The conclusions sum up where we stand.

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · Feb 12

🚨 urban economics research siren 🚨

In this recently published (open access) paper in "Land Use Policy", my co-author (Matthew Maltman) and I review critiques of the economic evidence on the effects of upzoning in Auckland.

We find these critiques have little to no merit.
doi.org/10.1016/j.la...

Stu Donovan @studonovan.bsky.social · Jan 23

Hi fwiends, I'm pleased to be contributing to a discussion on housing and infrastructure policy that is being organised by the Law and Economics of New Zealand and hosted by KPMG Wellington on 13 February.

Deets and register (in person or online) here:
eventbrite.co.nz/e/pipe-dream...

Pipe Dreams? Enabling and funding housing growth in New Zealand

Eventbrite - LEANZ presents Pipe Dreams? Enabling and funding housing growth in New Zealand - Thursday, 13 February 2025 at KPMG Wellington, Wellington, Wellington. Find event and ticket information.

eventbrite.co.nz

Reposted by Stu Donovan

M. Nolan Gray 🥑 @mnolangray.bsky.social · Jan 22

"Before [racial zoning] was overturned by a court, Atlanta had an explicitly racist zoning code ... To comply with the court ruling, 'R-1 White Districts' became 'Dwelling House Districts' ... and 'R-2 Colored Districts' became Apartment House districts."
www.atlcitydesign.com/blog/2021/1/...

Exclusionary policies of the past and present: How single-family zoning structures inequality — Atlanta Department of City Planning

By Kendra Taylor, Project Manager, Office of Housing and Community Development Racial and economic segregation are so prevalent today that it is easy to assume that segregation arises naturally thro...

www.atlcitydesign.com