I'm sure this is true, but it is also true that *every* correction ends with a short-covering rally. You just don't know which one is going to mark the bottom.

This is big if true. I can't help but think about when Goldman backed out of the subprime MBS game ahead of everyone else. This isn't going to be a macro disaster on that level of magnitude, but it could be a case of one player realizing the market is shifting ahead of others.

Give Bessent credit: he's consistent. IMV stuff like the size of auctions or minor tweaks to fin reg is only going to impact rates on the margins.

But Bessent always claimed Yellen was moving the 10yr materially (calling it stealth mon pol). So it makes sense that he believes this stuff will work.

Sometimes the thing in the news isn't really what is driving markets.

US job gains are always either good or bad. They don't stay mediocre for long. This chart shows that job growth never sits btw 0-1% (red line). If it falls below 1%, it either rebounds quickly or goes negative. This is rolling 6mo to take out noise.

Rn we're fine, but it can't go much lower.

IMV, stocks aren't falling bc of spending cuts or anything DOGE is doing. Stocks don't like tariffs and esp the haphazard way they are being implemented. If the House budget were to pass as is, I don't see that as economically contractionary.

I'm not crazy worried about this. But I think the right interpretation is that consumers don't have a lot of give. If income growth wanes, consumer spending will slow in a hurry.

Second, inflation expectations are very different than 2017. Consumers are primed to expect inflation + companies are more willing to risk raising prices. @weisenthal.bsky.social and @tracyalloway.bsky.social talked on OddLots about companies needing excuses to hike prices. Tariffs are an easy one.

For those trying to actually ascertain the impact of tariffs on inflation, company profits, markets, etc., two things to consider.

First, consider who in the supply chain has market power. Here, $WMT is saying they think they can squeeze suppliers, but don't want to raise $ on consumers. (1/2)

Today marks the 9th day in a row that ES has had a 50+ point intra-day swing.

Elon is out there saying the Fed is way overstaffed. I actually get how one could conclude this. The Fed operates kind of as a large think tank on economics.

I think the question is whether you'd rather risk paying a pittance more $$ to have a highly informed Fed, or save a few bucks.

We should absolutely not jump to conclusions, but this isn't great. And it follows Walmart's soft guidance.

If everyone could just move over here, I'd be completely happy to forget about that other place.