The Up Front
@theupfront.media
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In-depth, independent aviation journalism for the digital age — up front with what we write, how we write it, and the way we operate. Read and subscribe for more: https://theupfront.media
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This meme is the limit of "AI" in aviation in any meaningful way, on at least a ten-year horizon.

It's useful technology! Airline or ground services company can connect it to other systems and really useful information or even trigger alerts!

But it's not what the grifters are selling as "AI".
"is this a pigeon" meme, but it's a pushback tug instead of a butterfly, and it says "is this a [catering truck?]"
theupfront.media
Smart, practical implementation of "AI" (i.e., gen AI/LLM nonsense) adjacent tech like the object recognition work that Collins (galley dot ai), LHT (seer), LSG (AICA) have been doing for a few years risks getting tarred (by its creators, tbh) with the AI brush when the bubble bursts.
theupfront.media
One of the most frustrating parts of the whole inevitable AI bubble bursting in aviation is that there are actual innovations — marked as AI, often by parent companies, to ride the bubble — that are likely to be taken out in the splash radius.
theupfront.media
2) every implementation of LLMs has been an unmitigated disaster. BA is going through one right now with its AI closing valid customer service requests.

3) the very worst chancers and grifters in aviation are TOTALLY on board the AI promotion hype train. It's blockchain all over again.
theupfront.media
Follow Seth for the latest AI nonsense coming out of the World Aviation Festival in Lisbon.

We remain deeply skeptical of AI in aviation for 3 key reasons (just to start off with):

1) successful aviation tech badged as "AI" is, once you start asking questions, just an algorithm (LHT seer, etc)
wandrme.paxex.aero
"We won't even think about luggage. It will just get there."

One of the many questionable claims about how AI will change the travel world here at #AviationFest this morning.
Guy on stage speaking.
theupfront.media
Not the first time people have asked us that question with a faintly quizzical/baffled/curious look on their faces, tbh…
theupfront.media
So, we're not saying that we've seen the new JSX faux-retro livery before.

Only…

…is Cold War East Germany really the market vibes JSX is going for?
A JSX Embraer ERJ in a retro livery. It has a white body with a red stripe across the windows, and a red stripe across the white tail with a white logo on it. An Interflug Tupolev Tu-134 in a retro livery. It has a white body with a red stripe across the windows, and a red stripe across the white tail with a white logo on it.
theupfront.media
If it helps, it takes only a small adjustment to the rhythm to sing it to the tune of "Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious".
theupfront.media
Yeah, it's really notable how of the top 20 metro areas in Europe, the only ones without airline hubs are German (and, arguably, Milan post-Alitalia, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some movement there either with LH-ITA).
Reposted by The Up Front
theupfront.media
Because of this history, Lufthansa's hubs are in the #5 (Frankfurt) and #4 (Munich) metro areas of its home country.

Sure, Frankfurt has finance, and Munich has business (also leberkäse), but Air France's main hub isn't in Bordeaux, and BA's isn't in Liverpool.
Screenshot: Today, even in pure city terms (rather than the more accurate metropolitan area ranking) Berlin and Hamburg are larger than Munich. Cologne is next, then Frankfurt. That doesn’t even take into account the size and importance of the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region, which includes Cologne, Düsseldorf, Bonn and a dozen or so other sizeable cities adding up to around 11 million people. That’s nearly twice the population of the Frankfurt/Rhine-Main region.

[An overhead view from an airplane of Frankfurt, with the main railway station and small skyscraper district in the centre. Caption: While Frankfurt's airport is the Lufthansa Group's main hub, its actual metropolitan catchment area is small relative to other European hubs, or indeed German metro areas. Image: John Walton]

Lufthansa-the-airline used to operate some point-to-point flights from some other cities, but it closed its last non-FRA/MUC longhaul base at Düsseldorf over a decade ago. It also no longer operates Lufthansa flights from non-FRA/MUC bases on a regular basis.

What that’s meant for the vast majority of Germans (47 million out of the 58 million people who live in a German metropolitan area, of a total population of 80 million) is that their airport does not have nonstops to anywhere that isn’t Frankfurt or Munich on Lufthansa. 

Lufthansa doesn’t get the nonstop boost to being an airline of choice that having a home hub in a largest/capital city would bring it, because prospective passengers have to connect in Munich or Frankfurt.
Reposted by The Up Front
theupfront.media
That one's easier: Russia overflight bans. Gotta fly south anyway, so you might as well change plane.
theupfront.media
An excellent question, and I think the answer is possibly tied up in (a) ability to single-hop connect over LHR/CDG/AMS with BA/AF/KL, (b) lack of smaller widebodies/757-200 replacements, (c) ~*~ BER airport nonsense handwave ~*~
theupfront.media
So Tochterfluggesellschaftnamensverwirrung? Should there be an ß in there as well somewhere?
Reposted by The Up Front
theupfront.media
One of the things people often forget about Lufthansa — as they pelt down Frankfurt Airport's interminably bleak corridors, or glide through the Lufthansa-co-owned terminal at Munich Airport designed for efficiency — is that it is a product of history.

German history.

*West* German history.
Screenshot text: To understand Eurowings and its place in the Lufthansa Group and the German travel market, you have to remember the history of Germany, and the Cold War in particular. That history created, then widened, the major gap in how Lufthansa serves modern Germany today. 

In a Germany divided after World War II, one with historically decentralised economic centres stretching back as far as the Holy Roman Empire, geography has created structural issues for Lufthansa as a hub-based airline.

Unlike its major competitors (Air France-KLM and IAG, owner of British Airways and Iberia, most notably), Lufthansa’s hubs are neither in its national capital nor in its largest metropolitan areas. Instead, they’re in metro areas #5 (Frankfurt) and #4 (Munich), largely driven by Lufthansa having been the national airline of the former West Germany, and Frankfurt being the biggest city in the middle of that country after the World War II.
theupfront.media
BER could definitely be a longform piece on its own — as a starter answer: Lufthansa's own hub problems, fear of cannibalisation, its labour relations/contracts, BER-the-airport not being up to being a hub operation, ability to use the Star JV for US/CA traffic on United…
theupfront.media
We're taking recommendations from German speakers on the compound word for "subsidiary airline naming confusion".

Any advances on Tochterfluggesellshaftnamensverwirrung?
theupfront.media
Indeed. BER is such a binfire that I'm not necessarily *surprised*, but it remains such a massive opportunity for so many airlines, especially Lufthansa.
theupfront.media
Because of this history, Lufthansa's hubs are in the #5 (Frankfurt) and #4 (Munich) metro areas of its home country.

Sure, Frankfurt has finance, and Munich has business (also leberkäse), but Air France's main hub isn't in Bordeaux, and BA's isn't in Liverpool.
Screenshot: Today, even in pure city terms (rather than the more accurate metropolitan area ranking) Berlin and Hamburg are larger than Munich. Cologne is next, then Frankfurt. That doesn’t even take into account the size and importance of the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region, which includes Cologne, Düsseldorf, Bonn and a dozen or so other sizeable cities adding up to around 11 million people. That’s nearly twice the population of the Frankfurt/Rhine-Main region.

[An overhead view from an airplane of Frankfurt, with the main railway station and small skyscraper district in the centre. Caption: While Frankfurt's airport is the Lufthansa Group's main hub, its actual metropolitan catchment area is small relative to other European hubs, or indeed German metro areas. Image: John Walton]

Lufthansa-the-airline used to operate some point-to-point flights from some other cities, but it closed its last non-FRA/MUC longhaul base at Düsseldorf over a decade ago. It also no longer operates Lufthansa flights from non-FRA/MUC bases on a regular basis.

What that’s meant for the vast majority of Germans (47 million out of the 58 million people who live in a German metropolitan area, of a total population of 80 million) is that their airport does not have nonstops to anywhere that isn’t Frankfurt or Munich on Lufthansa. 

Lufthansa doesn’t get the nonstop boost to being an airline of choice that having a home hub in a largest/capital city would bring it, because prospective passengers have to connect in Munich or Frankfurt.
theupfront.media
One of the things people often forget about Lufthansa — as they pelt down Frankfurt Airport's interminably bleak corridors, or glide through the Lufthansa-co-owned terminal at Munich Airport designed for efficiency — is that it is a product of history.

German history.

*West* German history.
Screenshot text: To understand Eurowings and its place in the Lufthansa Group and the German travel market, you have to remember the history of Germany, and the Cold War in particular. That history created, then widened, the major gap in how Lufthansa serves modern Germany today. 

In a Germany divided after World War II, one with historically decentralised economic centres stretching back as far as the Holy Roman Empire, geography has created structural issues for Lufthansa as a hub-based airline.

Unlike its major competitors (Air France-KLM and IAG, owner of British Airways and Iberia, most notably), Lufthansa’s hubs are neither in its national capital nor in its largest metropolitan areas. Instead, they’re in metro areas #5 (Frankfurt) and #4 (Munich), largely driven by Lufthansa having been the national airline of the former West Germany, and Frankfurt being the biggest city in the middle of that country after the World War II.