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Messenger: Crime fighters in cities need data. What happens when Trump erases it?

Reposted by Thomas Abt

Center for the Study and Practice of Violence Reduction @vrcinfo.bsky.social · 7d

In the St. Louis region, SaveLivesNow is using science to guide its crime strategy with promising initial signs. If it succeeds, people will need to know about it.
www.stltoday.com/news/local/c...

A website operated by the Justice Department tracks crime reduction strategies — but it isn't being maintained.

www.stltoday.com

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Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 2d

As I've noted before, federal support for local law enforcement can be a great thing, but there's a right way and a wrong way to go about it, and guardsmen on our streets is not what local cops want or need.

Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 2d

Ironically, if anyone could make this claim, it would be Biden: during his administration, the national crime trend turned around, likely due in part to large federal investments in evidence-informed strategies in law enforcement and community-based programs.

Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 2d

This will be a challenge for Trump moving forward: in most cities all around the country, crime has been dropping substantially for a couple of years now. When he and his cronies try to take credit for crime going down, the data won't be there to support them.

Re-Evaluating Washington DC's Crime Trends

Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 2d

Agree with Jeff Asher, who just released a deep dive on DC data: hard to see how the federal crackdown helped control crime. Maybe it did, but impact was small and impossible to distinguish from pre-existing downward trend.

Jeff Asher @jeffasher.bsky.social · 2d

New this week: I took a preliminary look at DC's crime trends since the federal intervention. I don't see much change in overall violent crime, potentially a drop in shootings that's hard to tease out from the preexisting trend, and a drop in property crime. jasher.substack.com/p/re-evaluat...

A preliminary look at crime trends in DC.

jasher.substack.com

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Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 3d

“This country has a foundational tradition of resistance to government overreach, especially in the form of military intrusion... This historical tradition boils down to a simple proposition: this is a nation of constitutional law, not martial law.” www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Judge temporarily blocks Trump from deploying troops in Portland

Oregon officials had challenged President Donald Trump’s move to send troops to the state’s largest city, calling it “patently unlawful.”

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Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 7d

None of these statements should be acceptable for a political leader to make in front of a military audience in a democratic society.

About the Working Group - Final Report

Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 9d

Also, would be remiss if I didn't point out that this was a key recommendation of the CCJ Crime Trends working group that Jeff, myself, and many others were part of. www.counciloncj.org/crime-trends...

www.counciloncj.org

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Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 9d

This is a big deal and a very welcome development. Kudos @jeffasher.bsky.social and Jacob Kaplan for noticing.

Jeff Asher @jeffasher.bsky.social · 9d

New this week: I wrote about the very big change that the FBI recently announced very quietly - NIBRS now allows agencies to report non-fatal shooting data for the first time.

jasher.substack.com/p/the-fbi-ca...

The FBI Can Now Collect Non-Fatal Shooting Data

A big change, subtly announced.

jasher.substack.com

Messenger: Crime fighters in cities need data. What happens when Trump erases it?

Reposted by Thomas Abt

James Comey @jamescomey.bsky.social · 13d

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Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 13d

In this article, @tonymess.bsky.social connects evidence and crime-fighting, both in St. Louis and beyond. Pleased to have been a part of it and glad to see the @vrcinfo.bsky.social's work mentioned. www.stltoday.com/news/local/c...

A website operated by the Justice Department tracks crime reduction strategies — but it isn't being maintained.

www.stltoday.com

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Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 15d

Also continue to be gratified by the influence of the book around the country. This @vox.com piece talks about it. www.vox.com/politics/373...

This book is changing how cities fight gun violence

Thomas Abt’s Bleeding Out has become foundational in tackling urban violence across the US.

www.vox.com

Don’t go backward on how we fight violent crime. We know what works • Iowa Capital Dispatch

Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 15d

Pleased to see the lessons from Bleeding Out are still getting out there. Focus. Balance. Fairness. iowacapitaldispatch.com/2025/09/19/d...

"Fear, denial, and division lead us to cast blame and grasp for outdated solutions" to violent crime and abandon strategies that work.

iowacapitaldispatch.com

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Reposted by Thomas Abt

Center for the Study and Practice of Violence Reduction @vrcinfo.bsky.social · 16d

Last week, VRC Director @thomasabt.bsky.social gave the keynote at Sacramento Police Department's Violent Crime Summit. Thank you to Dr. Nicole Clavo-Barclay and Sacramento Police Chief Kathy Lester for the opportunity to discuss the work of the VRC!

Opinion | What Both the Left and the Right Get Wrong About Violent Crime

Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 16d

I somehow missed this important op-ed a couple of weeks ago from David Kennedy. Don't make the same mistake! www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/o...

www.nytimes.com

Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 16d

If scientists are viewed simply as a tribe, other tribes will be inclined to reject their wisdom. Smart stuff from @ellaalshamahi.bsky.social.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Opinion | I’m an evolutionary biologist. I’m also a former creationist.

The moment I finally admitted that Darwin was right didn’t feel liberating. It felt like grief.

A Better Way to Fight Crime | National Review

Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 16d

As Peter and Barry point out, there are better ways to support localities in fighting crime than sending in the national guard. www.nationalreview.com/2025/09/a-be...

National Guard deployments can only do so much.

www.nationalreview.com

Trump’s new demands on Justice Department raise alarm among prosecutors

Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 16d

The weaponization of law enforcement, if unchecked, only ends in one place: autocracy. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

The president is rapidly intensifying the pressure he’s putting on federal prosecutors, prompting some observers to questions whether their traditional independence can survive.

Trump’s unpredictable Guard deployments send big-city mayors scrambling

Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 24d

For better or worse, Trump is generating attention and energy around the issue of violent crime. The challenge policymakers face is to channel that energy into policies informed by rigorous evidence and respectful of civil rights and liberties. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Democratic mayors are laboring to stay prepared and unified as Trump weighs federal incursions that could upend their communities and political careers.

Shocked by Charlie Kirk’s murder, these students yearn for civil discourse

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Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 24d

Some good, hopeful news on a Sunday morning. I see these sentiments in my own students as well. www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/...

The students of Utah Valley University witnessed the worst possible outcome of political violence. Some are determined to create a model of civil discourse.

Crime Festers in Republican States While Their Troops Patrol Washington

Reposted by Thomas Abt

Center for the Study and Practice of Violence Reduction @vrcinfo.bsky.social · 26d

As @nytimes.com highlights, VRC-partner cities, City of Knoxville, @boston.gov, and @cityofstl.bsky.social are seeing violent crime drop faster than the national avg. Memphis is on track to reach this level. Violence reduction should be evidence-based, not partisan.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/u...

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Thomas Abt

Center for the Study and Practice of Violence Reduction @vrcinfo.bsky.social · 26d

🚨 There's still time to apply! 🚨

The VRC is looking for an experienced Deputy Director to lead research, policy guidance, as well as day-to-day management and mid- and long-term planning.

Apply today for best consideration.

tinyurl.com/applyvrc

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Reposted by Thomas Abt

Jeff Asher @jeffasher.bsky.social · 27d

Data is now available through August for 29 of the 30 cities that had the most murders in 2024 (data through July for Indianapolis). Murder is down more than 21 percent in that sample.

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Thomas Abt @thomasabt.bsky.social · 27d

I spoke recently with @nbcwashington.com about Trump's takeover. As I've noted here and elsewhere, federal support for local crimefighting is nothing new, but there's a right way and wrong way to go about it. www.nbcwashington.com/investigatio...

Will Trump's DC crime crackdown have lasting impact? Why an expert says strategy falls short

“This federal surge of law enforcement is neither focused nor balanced nor fair as perceived by the residents of Washington, D.C.,” crime reduction expert Thomas Abt said.

www.nbcwashington.com