Thomas Abt
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thomasabt.bsky.social
Thomas Abt
@thomasabt.bsky.social
Author, BLEEDING OUT. Founding Director, VRC. Associate Research Professor, UMD. Senior Fellow, CCJ. Opinions, my own.
What they said is supported by science: effective public safety depends on trust and partnership. We need cops and communities coming together. And we need federal/state/local collaboration, not competition. I hope folks in White House will listen.
February 1, 2026 at 6:51 PM
We're deeply impressed by the courage we've seen, and kudos to Mayors Dickens, Johnston, Wu, Young, and the others for their steady leadership in trying times. Kudos to our other VRC Mayors Kincannon, Spencer, and Williams as well.
February 1, 2026 at 6:51 PM
At best, the VRC provides cities with a small edge - helping to put together a roadmap informed by science and supported by local stakeholders. At the end of the day, however, it's folks on the ground who do the real work of turning plans into action.
February 1, 2026 at 6:51 PM
The VRC provides the mayor and other key stakeholders with the most reliable crime science out there, presented in completely nonpartisan terms. We also bring the lived experience of local stakeholders into the room. From there, the city chooses how to proceed.
February 1, 2026 at 6:51 PM
Violence and crime is falling in most U.S. cities. That said, VRC partners are outperforming the national averages. Why? We help bring local stakeholders together under the leadership of mayors in support of evidence-informed, community-informed anti-violence plans.
February 1, 2026 at 6:51 PM
Thank you!
January 22, 2026 at 8:52 PM
Will this historic progress continue? No one knows, but I worry that federal actions decimating funding for state and local anti-crime programs, not to mention everything else the feds are doing, could undo much of this good work.
January 22, 2026 at 2:28 PM
To reduce violent crime effectively, you need strategies that are focused, balanced, and fair. We saw more strategies like these (focused deterrence, cognitive behavioral interventions, hot spots policing) in recent years.
January 22, 2026 at 2:28 PM
Why is this happening? My take (and it's only a take) is that as we get farther from the factors that spiked crime in 2020 (pandemic, protests, gun sales), rates started to decline, plus cities with help from the feds implemented smart anti-crime policies.
January 22, 2026 at 2:28 PM
Violent crime overall in 2025 was at or below levels in 2019. There were 25% fewer homicides in 2025 than in 2019. Aggravated assault (-6%), gun assault (-13%), sexual assault (-4%), domestic violence (-19%), robbery (-36%), and carjacking (-29%) also were lower in 2025 than in 2019.
January 22, 2026 at 2:28 PM
When data for jurisdictions of all sizes is reported by the FBI later this year, there is a strong possibility that homicides in 2025 will drop to about 4.0 per 100,000 - the lowest rate ever recorded going back to 1900, and would be the largest single-year percentage drop in the rate on record.
January 22, 2026 at 2:28 PM
Homicide rates were 21% lower in 2025 than in 2024 in the 35 study cities providing data for that crime. There were 9% fewer aggravated assaults, 22% fewer gun assaults, and 2% fewer domestic violence incidents last year than in 2024. Robbery fell 23% while carjackings decreased 43%.
January 22, 2026 at 2:28 PM