Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

A novel personalised mortality risk prediction tool for HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis could lead to future treatment stratification trials - less intensive regimens for less unwell patients? Our new manuscript.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
#IDsky #HIV #GlobalHealth #meningitis #fungal

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Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

Many thanks to all our co-authors on the paper for all their hard work and support!
8/8

Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

The Periskope-CM models accurately predict mortality risk in patients with HIV-associated CM and show promise as a tool to direct future treatment stratification trials. They are available to use for research purposes at the following link: www.periskope.org/cm/
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PERISKOPE-CM – Home

www.periskope.org

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Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

Explorative analysis of treatment effect demonstrated a trend towards improved outcomes in patients with low predicted risk who received the single high dose liposomal amphotericin B, compared with standard amphotericin B deoxycholate + flucytosine.
6/8

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Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

Calibration, the measure of how well model predictions matched observed events, was reasonable for both regression models, although demonstrated some overprediction of risk at high-risk ranges, where training data was sparser. The machine learning model demonstrated miscalibration.
5/8

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Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

Both regression models discriminated well between patients who met the outcome and those who did not in held out validation data. The machine learning model did not improve performance.
4/8

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Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

We developed multivariable logistic regression models to predict 2-week mortality on data from the ACTA www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.... and Ambition www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.... trials using best-practice methods, comparing them head-to-head with a machine learning model trained on the same data.
3/8

www.nejm.org

1 1

Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) is a major driver of global HIV-related deaths. Treatment is intensive and toxic, so stratifying patients by disease severity may allow for more targeted therapy – less intensive regimens for less unwell patients.
2/8

1

Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

Very excited to share our new piece of work in the Lancet Global Health @lancetgh.bsky.social – Periskope-CM, a set of personalised risk prediction tools for HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis mortality: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
#IDsky #HIV #GlobalHealth #meningitis #fungal
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Lancet

www.thelancet.com

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Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

Many thanks to all our co-authors on the paper for all their hard work and support!
8/8

Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

The Periskope-CM models accurately predict mortality risk in patients with HIV-associated CM and show promise as a tool to direct future treatment stratification trials. They are available to use for research purposes at the following link: www.periskope.org/cm/
7/8

PERISKOPE-CM – Home

www.periskope.org

1

Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

Explorative analysis of treatment effect demonstrated a trend towards improved outcomes in patients with low predicted risk who received the single high dose liposomal amphotericin B, compared with standard amphotericin B deoxycholate + flucytosine.
6/8

1

Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

Calibration, the measure of how well model predictions matched observed events, was reasonable for both regression models, although demonstrated some overprediction of risk at high-risk ranges, where training data was sparser. The machine learning model demonstrated miscalibration.
5/8

1

Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

Both regression models discriminated well between patients who met the outcome and those who did not in held out validation data. The machine learning model did not improve performance.
4/8

1

Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

We developed multivariable logistic regression models to predict 2-week mortality on data from the ACTA www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.... and Ambition www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.... trials using best-practice methods, comparing them head-to-head with a machine learning model trained on the same data.
3/8

1

Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Apr 30

Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) is a major driver of global HIV-related deaths. Treatment is intensive and toxic, so stratifying patients by disease severity may allow for more targeted therapy – less intensive regimens for less unwell patients.
2/8

1

Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Feb 16

Fantastic piece of work by @richarddriley.bsky.social and others - this is the next step we need to be taking when we report the performance of clinical prediction models.

Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · Feb 13

**NEW BMJ PAPER**

"Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: rationale, challenges, and approaches"

- most models provide just a risk estimate
- we argue for presenting associated uncertainty too
- includes pros, cons, PPIE & methods

Hope helpful!
www.bmj.com/content/388/...

Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: rationale, challenges, and approaches

Clinical prediction models estimate an individual’s risk (probability) of a health related outcome to help guide patient counselling and clinical decision making. Most models provide a single point es...

www.bmj.com

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Reposted by Tom Samuels

🎃nisillos @onisillos.bsky.social · Jan 17

New research article in The Lancet Microbe

Assessment of MpoxPlex, a high-throughput and multiplexed immunoassay: a diagnostic accuracy study

www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

#IDSky #ClinMicro #ViroSky #Mpox #OpenAccess #OA

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Reposted by Tom Samuels

Antibiotic Steward 🅱️C🆔🅿️🌟 @absteward.bsky.social · Jan 15

🆕💫 Analysis of AMBITION RCT
Individuals started ART w/in 2 wks before presenting with cryptococcal meningitis, presumably active cryptococcal infection, have higher mortality, whereas those presenting on ART for > =2 wks have a more favorable prognosis #idsky
academic.oup.com/cid/advance-...

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Reposted by Tom Samuels

Gabriele Pollara @gpollara.bsky.social · Jan 15

Interesting to #IDSky & #ClinMicro

Anna Kildemoes @akildemoes.bsky.social · Jan 15

FINALLY! Our discovery of a very specific and sensitive serological target for schistosomiasis diagnostics is UP. Please, enjoy our shout-out for glycans and the importance of anticipating diagnostics needs 🧪🩸🪱 journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/...

Identification of a circulating carbohydrate antigen as a highly specific and sensitive target for schistosomiasis serology | Journal of Clinical Microbiology

The WHO 2030 roadmap deems diagnostics developments for schistosomiasis critically needed. Here we present identification of an antibody target with superior performance compared to traditionally used...

journals.asm.org

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Reposted by Tom Samuels

Hilda Bastian @hildabast.bsky.social · Dec 28

Ever wonder about the basis for fear-mongering & conspiracy theories about mRNA vax? Wish you had a place to go when someone cites "proof"?

I've got you covered! In my latest @plos.org I buckle up for the waves of anti-vax muck likely to come in 2025. 1/2

absolutelymaybe.plos.org/2024/12/28/g...

Getting Ready for More mRNA Vaccine Fear-Mongering: A Compendium - Absolutely Maybe

Recently, I wrote about a depressingly successful campaign against the introduction of a next generation Covid vaccine in Japan. It is a…

absolutelymaybe.plos.org

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Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Dec 28

Great piece in the Lancet Microbe from colleagues at HTD and RIPL about the vaccinating for dengue in travellers! 👏🏻

www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

Full details of how to go about it all for Uk travellers in the excellent Green Book travelhealthpro.org.uk/media_lib/ml...

#IDSky #ViroSky

New dengue vaccine for UK travellers: recommended only for those with a previous infection

Dengue virus is the most abundant and rapidly spreading arbovirus worldwide. 390 million dengue infections are estimated to occur annually, of which approximately 25% are symptomatic.1 Climate change and urbanisation have contributed to the spread of the vectors (Aedes mosquitoes) and enabled sustained transmission in regions that were previously not affected.2 Although the burden of the disease is largely confined to Asia and central or south America, autochthonous spread has been increasing in central and southern Europe.

www.thelancet.com

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Reposted by Tom Samuels

Gabriele Pollara @gpollara.bsky.social · Dec 18

Potential delivery of some antibiotics too?

Clearly there may be some significant issues with volume of fluid to be delivered subcutaneously!
#OPAT #IDSky #clinmicro #AMR

Science Magazine @science.org · Dec 18

A high-capacity microneedle patch powered by osmotic pressure can steadily release drugs over 24 hours in animals and is well-tolerated in people, offering a more convenient and portable alternative to current #DrugDelivery systems.

Learn more in #ScienceTranslationalMedicine: scim.ag/400iaaj

A wearable osmotic microneedle patch provides high-capacity sustained drug delivery in animal models

A wearable osmotic microneedle patch with high loading capacity provides sustained drug delivery for 24 hours in small- and large-animal models.

scim.ag

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Reposted by Tom Samuels

Michael Bazaconomicon 💀 🎃 👻 @mcbazacophd.bsky.social · Dec 18

Fatal Case of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever, Portugal, 2024

#IDSky #EpiSky

Fatal Case of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever, Portugal, 2024

Fatal Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever, Portugal

wwwnc.cdc.gov

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Tom Samuels @thomashasamuels.bsky.social · Dec 6

Our letter about HLH in murine typhus has just been published in the Journal of Infection! doi.org/10.1016/j.ji.... Many thanks to my co-authors, with a special mention to Sophie Skarbek, Sana Sharrack, and @jamesmeiring.bsky.social for all your efforts 🙏

Redirecting

doi.org

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